Carson Palmer is a no-brainer DFS play in Week 5
“Successful investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.” – Warren Buffett
I owe a great deal of my fantasy and DFS success to the value-investing philosophies of Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham, and Seth Klarman. There are a lot of similarities between the investment world and fantasy football, and I’ve written about the shared lexicon in other articles.
When investing and playing in DFS cash games, I want a built-in margin of safety. In GPPs, I’m more concerned with finding value where others do not and building a unique lineup that gives me a larger edge over the rest of the field. Another quote:
“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” – Seth Klarman
These two quotes were stuck to my wall in my final year of college while I was pitching stocks at a hedge fund and investing for myself on the side. The former reminded me to stay patient, trust the process, and learn to weather the volatility inherent to the game. The latter reminded me to stay true to my research while not being afraid of shunning public opinion.
I’m saying all of this, of course, because in Week 4, I had a down week. It happens. With these two quotes in mind, we’re back on the grind in Week 5.
Note: If you’re new to the article, we’ll only be looking at players with ownership percentages projected to be around 5 percent and below. The number next to each player’s name is their ownership percentage from FanDuel’s slate of GPPs. These games lock on Thursday night and have been proven to be an accurate way of gauging ownership heading into Sunday’s slate.
Carson Palmer (4.6%) – I have to admit, I wasn’t expecting I’d have the opportunity to write about Palmer this week. He’s coming off his worst fantasy performance of the year, but he was also up against a Rams defense that has given up the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks for the year. Still, he scored 19.5 fantasy points. Palmer is currently the QB4 in fantasy. He has the highest PFF grade among passers. He’s up against a Lions defense that has earned our sixth lowest grade in pass coverage. They’ve given up the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’re allowing a 78 percent completion percentage (last in the league) and 9.1 yards per attempt (third worst). When you can get a matchup like this from a top fantasy option at less than 5 percent owned, it’s a no-brainer play.