8 contrarian DFS picks for Week 14
“Trust the process. Your time is coming. Just do the work and the results will handle themselves.” – Tony Gaskins
After 2-3 consecutive weeks where the chalk had bombed, it was finally a productive week for some of the more-highly owned players. Still, it wasn’t a terrible day for those of us who decided to go contrarian. Marcus Mariota, for instance, finished as the QB1 despite an ownership percentage below four percent.
Really, it was a great week for unique/contrarian roster construction. While Cam Newton and Greg Olsen were a common pairing, adding Ted Ginn Jr. (2.1%), who finished as the WR6, gave you a unique lineup with added contrarian exposure to last week’s most highly-owned quarterback. Similarly, it was a good week for other unorthodox lineup attempts. Double-stacks involving the Titans, Jaguars, Jets, and Patriots all finished among the top lineups. The winning Millionaire Maker lineup was incredibly unique, as it had a whopping five Steelers on it.
Last week was a strong reminder that although pairing a quarterback with his wide receiver typically adds more expected value than, for instance, pairing a quarterback with two of his wide receivers, in GPPs, sometimes it’s more important to take a swing at something that gives you an advantage over a massive number of opponents than it is to tactfully play the law of averages. Being average or slightly above-average gets you nowhere in this game. In tournaments, you’ll make a lot more money if you finished dead-last six weeks in a row and then finished in the top 5 percent on the seventh week, than you would having seven consecutive weeks of above average finishes.
This week, the chalk will likely be Jameis Winston, Thomas Rawls, LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, and Greg Olsen. Our favorite contrarian plays are: