6 impact games for CFB DFS
Last week we saw the Baylor – Texas Tech game set the mark for the highest college football game total in recent years, hovering in the high 80s all week. Sure enough, the same saw 70 points in the first half and easily went over.
This week, our peak game is “only” at 79 points, but this is still a fun slate with six DFS relevant games supporting totals over 60.
When it comes to making DFS lineups, my approach always starts with listening to the oddsmakers. Their expectations for game totals, which fluctuate as the market considers all available information about a matchup, provide the quickest insight into the games to target. The idea is that selecting players from higher scoring teams will create more opportunities for the players on those teams.
In the third edition of this column I will examine the college football DFS implications of the games with the highest totals. In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Let’s get to it.
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green (Early)
Projected total of 79 points
Bowling Green: One of the most prolific quarterbacks in the country, the Falcons’ offense hinges on Matt Johnson. To date he’s accounted for 76 percent of Bowling Green’s total offensive yards, which is the fourth-best mark in the country. On both Fanduel and DraftKings he carries the second-highest salary and looks like a good bet to perform as a top-five quarterback for this time slot.
Johnson’s top target is Roger Lewis, who carries the No. 2 salary on both sites, but also the second-best projection. Pay up for him as you wish. If you want a discount Falcon receiver, Ronnie Moore is intriguing. He is about $2000 cheaper on both sites, but has caught a similar ratio of passes as Lewis (21.4% to Lewis’ 25.2%). Moore’s shortcoming has been in the form of low touchdown production, but he should be good to rack up catches and yards.
When BG runs the ball, their top man is Travis Greene, who has established himself as the lead back in a committee with Fred Coppet and is the superior pass catcher. UMass’ rushing defense has been up and down this year, allowing at least 390 rush yards to Notre Dame and Colorado, while holding FIU and Temple under 80 yards. Greene’s salary is outside the top 15 on both sites, but I like him as a top six runner, making him one of my top value plays at the position.
PFF now has weekly projections for college players, which you can explore here.
Massachusetts: When the Minutemen have the ball, expect quarterback Blake Frohnapfel to have a big day. While BG has held opposing running backs only 3.6 yards per carry over the past four games, they have consistently been torched through the air, ranking 89th in pass efficiency defense for the year. Moreover, they have allowed more than 340 pass yards in their last three contests. Interestingly, Frohnapfel has the 24th salary on Fanduel and 7th salary on DraftKings, so your usage of him will probably be site dependent. He projects as my number 13 quarterback for the session.
On the receiving end of Frohnapfel’s passes will be phenom Tajae Sharpe and Marken Michel. Sharpe carries a top-seven price tag at both sites and is projected to be a top-five performer for this time slot. Meanwhile, Michel is priced outside the top 35 but projects as my no. 10 receiver making him a tremendous value play.
As for the ground game, UMass calls the third-fewest run plays in the country and deploys a three-man rotation. I cannot recommend any of their running backs.
Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.