4x4 Rookie Mock Series - v. 2.0

With the NFL Draft now less than one month away, it’s time to re-evaluate the fantasy rookie landscape. In mid-February, we held the first in a series of four rookie mock drafts, called the 4×4 Series. This past week, we held mock 2.0.

In our first mock, the Combine was still on the horizon. Now, we sit with the festivities in Indy along with the pro days of many of this year’s top prospects squarely in the rearview mirro.

The goal of this series was to keep our finger on the pulse of the fantasy community and see how our collective opinions about this rookie class changes in the lead up to the Draft. As you’ll see below, there was some significant change from our first mock.

So this information can have a wide reach, we kept things simple. The mocks are four rounds with no positional limitations. We also used a .5 PPR format, which gives the results the widest possible reach.

You’ll recognize most of the participants as PFF Fantasy staffers, and we were also joined by our friends Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys.com, FSWA Hall of Famer Bob Harris, Rumford Johnny from the Rummy & Ray Podcast, Jon Moore from RotoViz, Rich Hribar of XNSports (among other sites), and Ryan McDowell from DynastyLeagueFootball.

Bellow I list the picks in a round-by-round fashion followed by my general thoughts. I also included the picker’s brief comments on their picks.

There’s some interesting movement atop this mock, as Thorman stepped up and snagged Kevin White following his impressive Combine performance. In our previous mock, I managed to get White at 1.04. The times, they are a changing. Likewise, Dorial Green-Beckham bumped up slightly from his selection at 1.06 in the last mock, as did Breshad Perriman (1.10 in the previous mock).

It’s a testament to how deep this class is at running back that we see a player the caliber of Melvin Gordon fall to 1.05. An argument could certainly be made for him as the No. 1 overall pick, and it wouldn’t shock me if that’s where he ultimately ends up after the Draft.

The remainder of this round is fairly straightforward, so I’ll take a moment to comment a little further on my selection of Jay Ajayi. This kid is a very versatile player who has the skill set to stay on the field for all three downs. He’s not an elite talent like Gurley or Gordon, but it doesn’t take an elite talent to be a fantasy RB1. If Ajayi lands in the right spot (like Dallas), watch out.

Early in Round 2, we get a very eye opening comment from Shawn Siegele. He calls Marcus Mariota “one of the top QB prospects ever from a fantasy perspective.” Shawn is one of the top high stakes players out there and a darn good analyst, so when he speaks, I listen. This is bold statement, but there’s certainly a lot of merit to what he’s saying. Mariota has a skill set in the vein of Russell Wilson in that he can beat you with his legs but is also a capable passer. If Shawn’s words come to fruition, Mariota is an absolute steal at 2.02.

However, I tend to side more with the Jameis Winston camp, and like where he went in this mock. Winston is a more pro-ready quarterback who will likely step into a Tampa offense with a potential long-term WR1 in Mike Evans. Winston’s fantasy ceiling may not rival Mariota’s, but his floor (especially short term) is much higher.

Half of the picks in this round are running backs. This is the year, folks. Load up at the running back position. The best part is you likely won’t need a bunch of first-round picks to do so. See if you can stockpile some second-round picks and scoop as many of the second-tier guys as you can.

That being said, it’s not the year of the tight end. Maxx Williams comes off the board in the late second, but I’d much rather have taken my chances with Mike Davis or Jeremy Langford. Rookie tight ends rarely pay immediate dividends, but rookie running backs do so frequently.

A few interesting players come off the board in the third round, namely Zach Zenner and Tre McBride. Neither was selected in our first mock.

Zenner is an intriguing running back out of South Dakota State who put up some big numbers in the Missouri Valley Conference. He has good size and could end up being a viable fantasy prospect if he lands in a zone-blocking scheme.

McBride also dominated against small school competition and improved his draft stock with a strong showing at the Combine, including running 4.41 in the 40. He’s a potential Day 2 pick whom you should keep your eye on.

While this round is wide receiver heavy (eight receivers selected), two tight ends were also selected – Jesse James and Clive Walford. If you are going to go tight end in rookie drafts this year, this point feels much better than where Maxx Williams went. There’s too much value on the board to pass up in Round 2.

An athletic freak, James actually posted better Combine numbers than Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. That’s not to say he’s a potential elite talent, but his high ceiling is worth a flier at this point. Walford has an interesting skill set with some explosive playmaking ability who has drawn comparisons to Dwayne Allen. For fantasy purposes, his ceiling is in the back end TE1 range.

Bring on the fliers here in the fourth round. Of all the rounds, this one is the most likely to change following the Draft. However, a few names will likely stick and could potentially move up.

Brett Hundley screams value at 4.09. While he’s raw and unpolished, his skillset is ideal for putting up fantasy points. In the right landing spot, Hundley is a strong pick to stash in the mid- to late-rounds of your rookie draft.

Bloom’s pick of Malcolm Brown also sticks out. He’s a bigger back with a solid pedigree (he played at Texas) who projects as a Day 3 pick. As Bloom notes, he’s solid between the tackles and doesn’t shy away from contact. He’s not a game-breaker, but Browns north-south running style and three-down ability could lead to solid production as the pro level.

Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven and DFS junkie of PFF Fantasy.  

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