2013 PFF Fantasy Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
June is a very interesting time for Dynasty Leaguers. It’s been just over a month since the draft and we all are beginning to feel like we have a good grasp on the incoming rookie class. We are starting to figure out who our real draft targets are and we are making transactions that will put ourselves in the best position to acquire them. We would be remiss to forget, however, that certain players’ pre and post OTA and training camp value will be night and day. Alfred Morris ring any bells? As much as we think we might know now about these rookies, training camp is still a month and a half away. Many forget this, and as a result there are interesting value gaining opportunities that are created for savvy Dynasty owners.
Knowing what the general sentiment of the fantasy community (and subsequently your league mates) is on the rookie class allows smart owners to manipulate the board to get their targets at the lowest possible cost. This is where a rookie mock draft is very helpful, and it just so happens we have 12 fantasy experts here at PFF who were more than willing to participate in such an experiment.
We set it up like an established PPR Dynasty league where each team has the same draft slot each round. The results are below, followed by some of my favorite picks in the draft. Each pick is followed by commentary from their respective PFF Staffer. Here is the link to the MyFantasyLeague.com draft.
1. @Pat_Thorman – Tavon Austin WR, St. Louis
I went for the highest long-term upside with the first pick. Each RB has flaws and none struck me as a slam dunk in either role or talent.
2. @PFF_RossMiles – Giovani Bernard RB, Cincinnati
Fantasy Football seems to be heading towards making RBs of premium value again so happy to make my #1 RB my selection.
3. Dan Schneier – Montee Ball RB, Denver
At #3 overall I drafted the same player I would have selected with the first pick overall. The two biggest question marks on Ball are his college workload and his forty time, but many of the top backs in this league (Forte, Rice) came out with the same question marks. Ball brings vision, great balance, and the best jump-cut I’ve seen in years to the perfect situation for fantasy success–Peyton Manning’s offense.
4. @PFF_Gary – Le’Veon Bell RB, Pittsburgh
Pick made based on Pre-Draft List Bell has the chance to become a big contributor in Pittsburgh. With the loss of Mike Wallace and the inconsistent running game the Steelers have had the last few years, Bell could emerge as a major factor in the Steelers offense and take some of the pressure off of Roethlisberger.
5. @Bryan_Fontaine – DeAndre Hopkins WR, Houston
I just recently moved Hopkins in front of Patterson on my board. Love the comparisons to Roddy White and he could be Houston’s top receiving option within two seasons
6. @PFF_BrianG – Eddie Lacy RB, Green Bay
If he can stay healthy he should be the go-to back they’ve needed. Runs hard, should put up nice numbers in an offense that will be looking to kill a lot of clock
7. @KevinGreenstein – Cordarrelle Patterson WR, Minnesota
I’m not a fan of Patterson as a top-5 pick, but at #7 he’s a solid value. In the Harvin-less Vikings offense, I think Patterson’s going to get the football early and often.
8. @JeffRatcliffe – Zac Stacy RB, St. Louis
This is one of the worst spots in this year’s rookie drafts. I do like Stacy’s potential for immediate return on investment, though I don’t think he’s necessarily the best player on the board. The problem is I would have to wait until 2014 to see any ROI on that particular player. I really don’t enjoy being put to this decision.
9. @Brian_Bulmer – Jonathan Franklin RB, Green Bay
Even with a running back by committee in Green Bay there will be plenty of opportunities for Franklin. The aerial attack combined with Franklin’s pass catching ability could make him a fantasy stud in PPR leagues.
10. @PFF_ScottSpratt – Keenan Allen WR, San Diego
Allen slipped to the third round in the NFL draft because of a knee injury that could linger into the season, but I think he is the second most talented receiver in the class and the one that will have the most immediate impact once he returns to the field. San Diego was a good landing spot for Allen. The only established receiver is Danario Alexander, who is often hurt and is on a one-year franchise tender. Allen could be seeing 70-target seasons very quickly.
11. @PFF_Joey – Markus Wheaton WR, Pittsburgh
My full love affair with Wheaton can be found here. I think he is a perfect fit for the Steelers’ offense. Big Ben is one of if not the best quarterback in the league at buying time in the pocket and throwing on the move, which is what has allowed Mike Wallace to get downfield and wreak havoc. Wheaton doesn’t quite have Wallace’s wheels but he is a better route runner coming out of college and has been praised for his work ethic by scouts. I think he has immense long-term upside with a relatively young known commodity at quarterback.
12. @AlexMiglio – Tyler Eifert TE, Cincinnati
The top running backs and wide receivers are gone, and the quarterback position is weak this year. That leaves me with a pretty easy choice here, taking the best tight end in the class. Eifert has a year or two before he becomes a serious contributor, but he has high upside.
13. @Pat_Thorman – Joseph Randle RB, Dallas
I was hoping Eifert would last one more pick, as the last standout (don’t believe in Gresham at all), so I then wanted to make sure I got the RB I seem to like more than most. A small ADP reach, he should factor into an excellent passing game (good enough blocker, solid pass catcher) sooner than later. And that’s if Murray stays healthy – no sure thing, and he’s already tweaked a hammy. Jones has labeled him the #2, even though Tanner is mildly interesting. And, right or wrong (wrong), what Jerry thinks seems to eventually happen on the field for Dallas.
14. @PFF_RossMiles – Marcus Lattimore RB, San Francisco
The injury is a real concern but there is a lot to like about Lattimore’s talent and upside. He has the skill set and physical attributes to be a three down back which makes him a valuable commodity too. San Francisco is a great landing spot for him to recover and learn behind Frank Gore as well.
15. Dan Schneier – Justin Hunter WR, Tennessee
Considering Hunter is my favorite outside WR in the entire 2013 NFL Draft, I was thrilled to get him at 15 overall. Hunter is a unique talent at 6’4 200 pounds with a 4.44 forty time. After a huge 2011 season, Hunter battled through a knee injury that wasn’t fully recovered and still posted a 73/1083/9 season for the Vols. The talent is real and Nate Washington had some production and Hunter can take his role sooner than later (if he isn’t cut)
16. @PFF_Gary – Quinton Patton WR, San Francisco
I love the Patton’s value for the 49ers this year. He’s better than where he was drafted (128th overall), and his stats his last two seasons at LA Tech say it all: 183 receptions, 2594 yards, & 24 td’s. With Crabtree out until late October at the earliest, Mario Manningham probably out the first month if not longer, Kyle Williams coming off an injury, and AJ Jenkins not looking like he’s part of the plan, Patton could settle into the WR2 spot for Colin Kaepernick pretty easy behind Boldin.
17. @Bryan_Fontaine – Christine Michael RB, Seattle
Love getting a value here in Michael. He’s been a late first rounder in most drafts I’ve seen and has the talent and opportunity to be a top fantasy back once Lynch slows down.
18. @PFF_BrianG – Robert Woods WR, Buffalo
Not a real speedy guy, but runs good routes and should develop into a consistent WR.
19. @KevinGreenstein – Aaron Dobson WR, New England
Really happy to see Dobson still on the board at 2.07. His combination of size, speed and hands is extremely rare, and I think he’s going to far outperform his draft position (NFL and fantasy).
20. @JeffRatcliffe – E.J. Manuel QB, Buffalo
It’s a pretty significant drop in my tiers at RB and WR at this point, so Manuel make for a logical choice. He doesn’t rival the polished 2012 class, but I love his ceiling in what looks to be a high-tempo Bills offense. In a perfect draft, Michael falls to me here. I do like this value, though, and will take it as a solid consolation prize.
21. @Brian_Bulmer – Travis Kelce TE, Kansas City
Kelce is a solid pick here. There is a drop in WR and RB and the top QB is off the board. Kelce is a better blocker than Moeaki and more athletic than Anthony Fasano. Andy Reid has a history of using the tight end as a major part of the offense. Outside of Dwayne Bowe there are no significant pass catchers in the Chief’s offense. Adding Kelce here could mean immediate fantasy production.
22. @PFF_ScottSpratt – Mike Gillislee RB, Miami
Gillislee is a tremendous fit in Miami’s new zone blocking scheme because of his vision, patience, and explosiveness. He is not huge, but he is big enough to be a volume back in the NFL, and Lamar Miller is unproven.
23. @PFF_Joey – Jordan Reed, TE Washington
This may be a slight reach but Reed is one of my top targets this year and I wasn’t sure if he would be there by the next time I picked. I also wrote about Reed during the draft process. He is a converted high school quarterback who has vast room for improvement in his game despite already showing elite traits in the open field. I also don’t think he could have landed in a better spot. With Fred Davis on a one year contract, a young quarterback, and an offensive coaching staff that has shown it knows how to get the most out of its’ skill position players, there is immense long term upside for Reed in Washington.
24. @AlexMiglio – Stedman Bailey WR, St. Louis
One of my favorite pre-draft receivers, Bailey—who reminds me of Greg Jennings—ended up in a less-than-ideal situation fighting for a role with the Rams. Cream rises to the top, however; I believe Bailey will have a fine career.
25. @Pat_Thorman – Denard Robinson, Jacksonville
Going for the pure upside/talent with this pick, given te relatively vanilla choices left – especially at RB. In this format, talent over short-term opportunity is my preference at this point of the draft. Very tempted to take a different player, but he might make it to the next round and I doubt Robinson would.
26. @PFF_RossMiles – Tyler Wilson QB, Oakland
It’s a tough board now and I’m a believer of picking a player you pike even if it is a bit of a reach. I’d be more comfortable taking Wilson at the top of round four but I’m not sure he’d make it back to me. Oakland is a decent landing spot for him as I’m not enamoured with Flynn. It’s not out of the realms of possibility he starts multiple games this year
27. Dan Schneier – Stepfan Taylor RB, Arizona
Anyone who’s read my piece on mining the 2013 Draft for unheralded talent knows that I love Stepfan Taylor and I am thrilled to still have a chance to grab him in Round 3. On the last round, I debated taking Christine Michael (ton of talent + on a great offense) over Justin Hunter, but my feeling was that I would be able to grab Taylor at this slot and I didn’t want to invest my first three picks on RBs. It paid off. Taylor, Stanford’s all-time leading rusher, is a strong runner with great vision who can immediately come in and pick-up the blitz. He’s on a team with a HC who prefers the one back philosophy (see Vick Ballard, 2012) and he only needs to pass a name in Rashard Mendenhall and fellow rookie Andre Ellington for carries in an offense that should score more in 2013.
28. @PFF_Gary – Geno Smith QB, New York Jets
At this point, QB’s are starting to come off of the board so it was best to grab one now. Barkley is the better player, but his chances of playing right away are smaller than Smith’s. If there was ever a time Mark Sanchez is on a short leash, it’s now. When you’re in OTA’s and your head coach is saying he’s glad he has a defense that can keep him in games after his QB throws 3 picks, you know things aren’t looking good. While Smith is very raw, he should get a chance with the Jets this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that chance turned into a permanent one.
29. @Bryan_Fontaine – Terrance Williams WR, Dallas
30. @PFF_BrianG – Andre Ellington RB, Arizona
Considering Mendenhall’s injury problems and their lack of a clear starter after him, gotta like Ellington’s chances of seeing a reasonable amount of snaps.
31. @KevinGreenstein – Da’Rick Rogers WR, Buffalo
The SEC’s top receiver as a sophomore, Rogers has top-tier measurables and by all accounts has gotten his life under control.
32. @JeffRatcliffe – Josh Boyce WR New England
I actually like Boyce more than Dobson, and have managed to draft him in every rookie draft I’ve been in this year. He’s not the more physically gifted receiver, but he has good speed and has an intriguing ceiling in New England. The potential for immediate payout makes this one a no-brainer at 3.08.
33. @Brian_Bulmer – Kenny Stills WR, New Orleans
Stills is going to get an opportunity to take the 3rd wide receiver spot in his rookie season in New Orleans. He is in the mold of Lance Moore only taller. He is not a burner, but can beat people with his speed. Stills comes from an NFL pedigree and his situation, work ethic, and great hands make him a perfect wide receiver to draft in the late third round. third round.
34. @PFF_ScottSpratt – Marquise Goodwin WR, Buffalo
Goodwin is a literal track star whose fantasy production could depend on big plays from week to week. However, Goodwin can also work the middle of the field and has long-term star potential.
35. @PFF_Joey – Charles Johnson WR, Green Bay
This late in the draft I tend to take chances on upside and that is the best word to describe Johnson, who is walking into one of the league’s premier passing offenses. There is risk in that he is a raw prospect from a small conference school, but with legit 4.3-4.4 whee, a 40-inch vertical and Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, the juice is worth the squeeze here.
36. @AlexMiglio – Matt Barkley QB, Philadelphia
The third-round quarterback run that we didn’t see a month ago happened here, so I went with the best player available at a position I haven’t taken yet. Matt Barkley might need a year or two to make some noise in Philadelphia, but I think he will avenge his draft stock’s death somehow.
37. @Pat_Thorman -Mike Glennon QB, Tampa Bay
May actually wind up starting this year. Good value for the 4th round.
38. @PFF_RossMiles – Marquess Wilson
If the off field issues at Washington State was more smoke than fire I could be getting a bargain here
39. Dan Schneier – Zac Dysert QB, Denver
I went into this draft targeting Dysert as the QB I wanted to grab. After all of my pre-draft research I determined Zac to be my 2nd ranked QB in the entire class. He’s a leader on the field and he single-handedly won games for his team that lacked talent all across the board. Besides the “it” factor he also has a strong arm and can make all the intermediate-deep throws (most important physical characteristic in a QB). Peyton Manning could go down at any time, and I believe Dystert, not Osweiler would take the reigns on an offense that includes Welker, Thomas, Decker. A few years down the line I can see Dysert starting when Peyton retires.
40. @PFF_Gary – Zach Ertz TE, Philadelphia
I needed a TE at this point, and Ertz was considered by many the best TE coming out of the draft. While it’s still a question mark about how much the TE will be featured in Chip Kelly’s offense, he could be a spark for the Eagles’ offense and offer a mismatch to exploit. I don’t expect much from him right away.
41. @Bryan_Fontaine – Latavius Murray RB, Dallas
42. @PFF_BrianG – Gavin Escobar TE, Dallas
43. @KevinGreenstein – Knile Davis RB, Kansas City
If Jamaal Charles can’t carry the load all season, Davis is a good bet to be second in line for carries. With his size/speed combination, that could yield valuable fantasy numbers.
44. @JeffRatcliffe – Ryan Swope WR, Arizona
Crazy speed if fully healthy. This pick is all for upside.
45. @Brian_Bulmer – Kerwynn Williams RB, Indianapolis
May get a chance if Vick Ballard goes down. Otherwise a solid handcuff for Ballard owners at this point
46. @PFF_ScottSpratt – Kenjon Barner RB, Carolina
I think the choice between Kenjon Barner and Chris Harper here depends on your positional depth, but I want to highlight Barner. Barner is undersized and will never supplant DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, or their successors as an early-down back, mostly because he will struggle to pass protect. However, Barner is dangerous in space and has massive upside as a receiving back, especially in this offense where their lack of receiver depth may result in a back lining up in the slot from time to time. Keeping both Stewart and Williams long-term is likely not financially possible for the Panthers, and so Barner may get worked into the mix sooner than many expect
47. @PFF_Joey – Ray Graham RB, Houston
I’ve liked Graham for a few years now. He had a disappointing last season in Pittsburgh but what he lacks in long speed he makes up for in lateral agility in tight space, which is one my favorite qualities in a running back. Combine that with the fact that he is going to one of the run happiest teams in the league, and this was an easy lottery ticket pick this late.
48. @AlexMiglio – Mark Harrison WR, New England
At this point I might as well let the running back ship sail and assume that my fictional team is fine with that; there is simply little relative value here. Harrison was another pre-draft favorite (sleeper) of mine, but rumors of a trashed hotel room and a broken foot have dashed his fantasy stock. The big receiver could make some noise down the line, though; New England is not a bad landing spot for him.
14th Overall: @PFF_RossMiles – Marcus Lattimore RB, San Francisco
I think this is the perfect place to take Lattimore. Ross had already taken Gio Bernard in the first so he could afford to take the risk and gamble on Lattimore’s long term upside with offensive guru Jim Harbaugh and his road grading offensive line. In leagues where there are taxi or redshirt spots on your roster, I can even see justifying taking Lattimore two to four picks higher.
17th Overall: @Bryan_Fontaine – Christine Michael RB, Seattle
Excellent value here for Bryan, who gets what could be the most talented runner in this class. Character concerns are the only reason Michael fell this far, but they are legitimate concerns. The kid slept through the biggest job interview of his life at the combine, which is an immediate red flag to go along with his less than stellar off field reputation at Texas A&M. He has just about every physical trait you look for in a running back, though.
19th Overall: @KevinGreenstein – Aaron Dobson WR, New England
Call me a homer but I think Dobson is an absolute steal late in the second round. The Patriots know their window with Tom Brady is closing and they did not let Wes Welker walk only to bring their second round pick along slowly. This logic jives with reports that Dobson has a high football IQ and the Pats believe he will be able to pick up their complex system relatively quickly. He has excellent hands and ran in the 4.4’s at 6’3” and has a Hall of Fame quarterback for the foreseeable future. Great pick by Kevin.
26th Overall: @PFF_RossMiles – Tyler Wilson QB, Oakland
Wilson is my favorite quarterback in the draft class. There have already been reports of him standing out at OTA’s and aside from Geno Smith (who I am not a fan of) he has the clearest path to playing time with only Matt Flynn in front of him. He has a nice pair of young receivers in Denarius Moore and Rod Streeter to develop with. I like him a lot long term.
40th Overall: @PFF_Gary – Zach Ertz TE, Philadelphia
I was very surprised to see Ertz fall this far, and Gary was smart to take full advantage. He seems to fit the mold of what Chip Kelly is looking for in extremely athletic skill position players, and he has a chance to get on the field early and often as a rookie under a new regime in Philadelphia who has no ties to existing players on the roster.