All News & Analysis

Neil's NFL Daily: May 21, 2013

Wow — was news sparse on the ground yesterday? When the most interesting item I hear is that Brooks Reed is taking snaps at inside linebacker, you know it’s a slow day in the NFL. While the possibility the Texans may view Reed as the same uninspiring pass rusher we do (we’ve consistently graded him far better as a run defender and in coverage than in pressuring the QB) is worthy of note, I suspect 800 words telling you that may be overboard. It’s for that reason I’m returning once more to what I think is the most important statistic in the NFL — how a quarterback performs under pressure. We’ve looked at individual parts of this topic many times but I thought a summary taking in every QB would finalize our thoughts on the subject.

 

Tuesday, May 21st

Quarterbacks Without Pressure

Roughly 69% of NFL passes are made free of pressure. Some of this is the result of the type of throw (quick, screens etc.) or the quality of the pass protection, and obviously it varies from team to team. However, even Kevin Kolb threw more frequently without a pass rusher in his face than otherwise so it’s incredibly important to do well in this category. Here is the how every QB (minimum 200) fared when kept clean.

 

QB Performance Without Pressure, Ranked by PFF Grade/drop-back

[table id=864 /]

 

As can be seen, the vast majority of players have both a reasonable QB rating and a positive overall grade from us on un-hurried throws. The best though, have NFL ratings over 110 and ratings from us in excess of 50% more than the NFL average. The bottom line here is that if you are as clinical as Peyton Manning (QB rating 115.7) and throw unmolested 80% of the time (as he does) you will always do well, almost regardless of what happens when made to hurry.

A special word for Bengals fans regarding John Skelton — it takes a special type of player to generate a 63.3 NFL rating and grade negatively overall when throwing from a clean pocket.

Quarterbacks Under Pressure

The remaining 30.13% of throws (the NFL average for pressured drop-backs) is still a lot to consider, and when you take away the throws where you couldn’t possibly be hindered it grows even larger. The average drop-off in QB rating is a huge 35.8 and when you consider the touchdown-to-interception ratio unpressured is better than 2:1, but when pressured interceptions exceed TDs the opportunity for disaster looms large. Who are the guys who can still do it with a defender in their face?

QB Performance With Pressure, Ranked by PFF Grade/drop-back

[table id=865 /]

 

The remarkable thing here is that four of the Top 8 players are rookies. The naivety of youth? The ability to scramble and make things happen? Maybe they are just that good, and Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III in particular had remarkable seasons — both finishing Top 5 in each category.

I’ve said it before (and if I appear to be laying it on thick I apologise) but a 3.2 QB rating by Brady Quinn, together with the lowest PFF grade should have Seahawks fans praying for either Russell Wilson’s health or an all-world performance in pass protection.

Largest Differentials With and Without Pressure

So does anyone perform better when the heat is on? Well, remarkably two players do, but it is only two and it is marginal — no one is suggesting those teams give up investment in the O-Line. In summary, here are the quarterbacks ranked 1 to 38 by PFF rating differential pressured to clean.

 

QB PFF Rating Differential With and Without Pressure

[table id=866 /]

 

Perhaps the biggest cause for concern should be among 49er fans. Colin Kaepernick, our No. 1 rated player when kept clean, drops an enormous 61.7 QB rating points when hurried — only Brady Quinn drops more. Additionally, Josh Freeman will need to do far better in his 2013 contract year if he wishes to remain a Buccaneer, and most of that is based on how he performs under pressure.

 

Other editions of Neil’s NFL Daily can be found HERE

 

Follow Neil on Twitter: @PFF_Neil

 

All Featured Tools

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit