Neil’s NFL Daily: July 11, 2013

Neil Hornsby returns to his post at the Daily to bring you his assessment of the likely starting line-ups for the 2013 Vikings and Dolphins.

| 3 years ago
NFL-Daily-Feature

Neil’s NFL Daily: July 11, 2013


As the man who single-handedly puts up the average age of the whole PFF team by four years a man (seriously), I need a little time off from time to time to do “old man stuff”. Therefore, thanks to Khaled for filling in for me yesterday with the Jags and Chiefs. To those who liked how he graded — I agree, I would have done the same thing.  And to those who felt he missed a trick, you’re right — I wouldn’t have done that either.

Today, however, I have no such luxury as I look at how the Dolphins’ spending spree worked out, and check in on the Vikings — a team that certainly exceeded my expectations last year.

For those new to the series and wanting to catch up, you can find the other teams covered to date with this handy set of links.

Charts by team:

ARZ ATL | BAL | BUF CAR CHI CIN | CLE | DAL DEN DET
GB | HOU IND | JAX | KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ
OAK PHI PIT STL SD SF SEA TB TEN WAS

 

Thursday, July, 11

Miami Dolphins (Click to enlarge)

Notes:

— Wallace didn’t have the best season last year, but even so, he is still the premier deep threat receiver in the NFL and hence the salary he eventually commanded. In the end, I optimistically went high quality on the basis the Dolphins will be able to generate enough big plays to get full reward.

— There’s a lot of hype around Miller but, in the end, he still rushed only 50 times last year. He did well on those however, but it just wasn’t a big enough sample size for me to confidently go “above average”.

— I toyed with making Odrick below average but was cognizant he spent a lot of time out of position, at end. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and say his best position is on the interior of the line.

 

Minnesota Vikings (Click to enlarge)


Notes:

— If Greg Jennings is fully healthy he’s certainly “high quality”, but that’s a big “if”. Let’s just say “above average” with the potential for more.

— Rudolph certainly has the potential for great things but needs to show it more consistently. His Pro Bowl trip last year was premature, and probably more an indictment of the quality of tight ends in the NFC than a superb display.

— This is a defensive line in decline, even if it is a slow decline. It’s not many years ago Kevin Williams was clearly the best DT in the NFL and Allen was elite too. Even Robison is getting on in age, and it’s hugely important that Floyd at least flashes the potential to stop the downward trend.

 

 

Other editions of Neil’s NFL Daily can be found HERE

 

Follow Neil on Twitter: @PFF_Neil

 

| PFF Founder

Neil founded PFF in 2006 and is currently responsible for the service to the company's 22 NFL team customers. He is constantly developing new insights into the game and player performance.

  • Guest

    Kevin Williams is top three in you guys Defensive Interior Lineman…shouldnt he at least be high quality

  • JaTerrance Dwayne Young

    Kevin Williams is top three in you guys Defensive Interior Lineman over the past 5 years…shouldnt he at least be high quality

  • Chris

    How is Dustin Kellar below average?

    • Abouthat

      If I remember correctly, he drops a lot of passes and doesn’t block well, though I think he had significantly fewer drops last year. That said, the precedent of dropped passes might leave one wanting some proof that he wasn’t just focusing more in a contract year. PFF always values blocking at TE, and he isn’t potent enough as a receiver to overlook his in-line deficiencies. PFF analysts, feel free to correct me if I misrepresented your grading.

  • Krauser

    Jared Allen has >20 sacks in 2011, and even more QB pressures than that in 2012, according to PFF’s own stats, despite playing through injuries, and he’s not elite? How many DEs would start ahead of him this year at RDE?

    How many TEs would start ahead of Rudolph this year? 3 or 4 maybe, but he’s not “high quality”.

    Chris Cook was half of one of the top 10 CB tandems in the league, according to PFF’s own stats, and he’s only average? You know Winfield basically never covered anyone downfield, right?

    Did the Vikings really play 3WR 57% of snaps last year? Felton and Ellison seemed to play more than that.

    • PFF_Neil

      Apologies, Copy and paste got the better of me and all those package numbers were wrong. Should have been 39% 11 personnel (still the most frequently used package) and 55% nickel.

  • Yeahbuddy

    No Paul Soliai besides Starks?

    • Jay

      I think we’ll see Soliai instead of Odrick there, Odrick will come in on 3rd downs but will also get more time at DT hopefully.

    • Chiefton

      This is the nickle defense genius. Read.

  • Jay

    I don’t think Dion Jordan will start right off the bat. Training camp will be his first time with the team and I doubt he will be able to unseat Olivier Vernon who has been working opposite of Cameron Wake this entire off-season. They’ll ease him into the rotation but he won’t start, not the first year in my opinion. Soliai will most likely start at DT with Starks also imo with Odrick coming in on passing downs.

    • Chiefton

      Right, thats why thats the NICKEL defense, as its labeled on top.

  • TG

    How can you rate Tannenhill as above avg and Ponder below? Just look at their stats man.

    • Chiefton

      The whole point of the website you are currently on is that stats are misleading. Tannehill even in his rookie season was a better quarterback than Ponder was.

  • Rak

    Terrible chart on the Vikings. Based on your own writing and stats this doesn’t make sense. Did PFF use an intern from Greenbay to create this?

    • Bill

      are all viking fans this whiny in real life?

  • Mattkinson

    Chad Greenway has to be a high quality starter at least. He was tied for the league in tackles and he’s just above average? Also, You don’t win pro bowl MVP as just an above average player, Rudolph is a very underrated blocker as well, and definitely deserves a high quality tag, and I know Jared Allen is on the decline but he was injured last season and still manged double digi sacks routinely double teamed- that says elite to me. Nice job on recognizing Sullivan as one of the very best at his position he deserves so much more attention than he get as centers very often get lost in the shuffle behind more flashy people.

    • PFF_Neil

      Tackles are really not a great indicator of performance. How many of them are actually a “win” for the defense? How many of them are simply clean-ups that result from another player doing the work of say blowing up the full-back etc.

      That’s why we grade every snap and effectively put each tackle in context.

      However to try and put this In terms of numbers Greenway is =9th in run stop % among 4-3 OLBs. He has the same productivity level as Akeem Ayers and James Anderson.

      He also missed the most tackles of any 4-3 OLB in run defense and is behind only the Raiders Miles Burris in terms of tackling efficiency.

    • Chiefton

      You’re seriously judging a guy based on TACKLES? The whole point of the website you’re on is to evaluate guys beyond simple numbers. I sometimes question people’s ability to read.

  • Joe

    I think you’ve done a great job with this analysis. But it’s Olivier Vernon, not Vernon Olivier.