Marshawn Lynch is due for a big week

George Fitopoulos identifies players with the best weighted opportunity through Week 2 of the NFL season.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)

(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)

Marshawn Lynch is due for a big week

Here we are in Week 3 and the sky is already falling in some parts of this wonderful country of ours. It’s a weird meteorological effect, but we can just blame Global Warming.

We’re starting to see some trends develop and PFF is a great source at identifying them all via some innovative stats and metrics. We have Shawn Siegele’s look into advanced target and routes run data, Mike Clay’s OTD metric, and then a whole bunch of content on top of that.

My Opportunity Index metric, which is basically weighted carries and targets rolled into one number, does three valuable things when it comes to evaluating players from a fantasy perspective. First, it tells you the quality of opportunity a player is getting. Using OI you can easily decipher whether a player is more valuable with 30 carries with 50 percent coming in the red zone vs. a player with 45 carries and 35 percent coming in the red zone.

The second and third valuable aspects of OI are expected fantasy points and then the difference between expected and actual output. Each OI is associated with an expected fantasy point total and from that you can see which players are playing above or below expectation. Of course, these differences can sometimes be explained away by players be more or less efficient than average, but it can also identify those with great or bad touchdown luck as well.

Let’s get to the Week 2 update.

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George Fitopoulos is a writer for PFF Fantasy and can be reached on Twitter @PigskinProf.

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