Here at Pro Football Focus we chart every play of every NFL game, recording advanced statistics on exactly what a player does on every snap. Then as fantasy analysts we take that data and use it, along with our experience from years of playing fantasy football and watching games ourselves, to form the opinions that drive our advice and decisions. This series will take a deep look at how teams are using defensive backs against opposing offenses, and apply a fantasy spin to both defensive and offensive players.
This week I’ve picked out two games to take a deep look at and see how the defensive coverage schemes and cornerback’s usage will impact fantasy production. The games in questions:
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys
I’m also going to flag-up some notable match-ups where man-coverage CBs will face-off against a notable fantasy wide-receiver, and what to expect.
Let’s kick off straight away by looking at how the 2nd ranked Cardinals pass defense will cope with the 4th ranked Falcons passing offense, and in particular the explosive trio of Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals top three cornerbacks have all been used in man-coverage roles (30+ snaps, 65%+ plays covering the same player) in 2012, Patrick Peterson and Jamell Fleming three times a piece, William Gay twice. Peterson has not been used in such a role though since Week 6 against Stevie Johnson, and last time out against a high-profile Packers offense he saw a much more balanced usage covering WR2 James Jones on 23/74 snaps, but also WR5 Jarrett Boykin on 17/74. It should be noted that Peterson was asked to shadow Jordy Nelson on 11/13 plays before Nelson left the game due to an injury, so if it wasn’t for that it is likely he would have had his fourth game in a shutdown corner.
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Ross Miles is the IDP Editor and a Senior Fantasy Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy, as well as 2011’s most accurate IDP expert according to FantasyPros. Follow him on Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles
For an in depth look at the IDP landscape, snap counts and weekly match-ups from IDP Editors Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles, check out our free-to-watch weekly show, The Nickel