Karlos Williams should explode in Week 4

George Fitopoulos takes a look at the top performers in opportunity index through Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

Karlos Williams should explode in Week 4

Week 3 in the 2015 season will forever be known as the Devonta FreemanJoseph Randle explosion, but it was overall a crazy week for running backs. Take a look at this top 10 in Opportunity Index for just Week 3 – Freeman (185.8 percent), LeGarrette Blount (142.9), Chris Johnson (100.4), Alfred Blue (71.1), Ryan Mathews (68.2), Latavius Murray (67.5), Darren Sproles (63.8), Jamaal Charles (55.2), Chris Thompson (54.8), and Frank Gore (52.8).

Good luck getting those rankings right next time!

One running back I’m keeping my eye on for Week 4 is Karlos Williams as he has been the most efficiency fantasy scorer so far this season and is due for a huge uptick in volume form his current rank of 60th among running backs.

Before we get into the stats, I wanted to point out some changes to the tables this week that I will be using from now on. First I added a +/- category, which shows the player’s movement in OI from the prior week. I also consolidated xFPTS and FPTS into one number that shows how much above or below a player has performed versus his expected points.

Opportunity Index (OI) is a metric that measures the quality of a player’s opportunity (QB completions plus rushes, RB/WR/TE pass targets plus rushes) versus the quantity of opportunity. Each opportunity is weighted by likelihood to score fantasy points and then adjusted to the position average to get one, clean number where 0% is league average and anything greater is above league average and vice versa.

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George Fitopoulos is a writer for PFF Fantasy and can be reached on Twitter @PigskinProf.

  • Matt

    Help me out real fast… what does the TA statistic represent on your stats page? I can’t figure it out and i’ve looked all over your site…

    • George Fitopoulos

      Hey Matt! TA stands for tackles avoided so basically the number of missed tackles on rush attempts.

      • Matt

        Got it. Thanks for the help!

  • Michael

    First time I’ve ever seen this chart and I couldn’t readily find an answer to this. But just curious, would one take any value from the FPTS category in this sense that a player that is in the negative (performing below expectation) has been “unlucky” and is “due” to breakout soon? And vice-versa for the positive? Like Carson Palmer is playing over his head and is not good value going forward?

    Is there any kind of trend or expectation like that based on previous data?

    Thanks and keep up the great work.

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