Introduction to Opportunity Index

George Fitopoulos introduces you to a new way to measure opportunity in fantasy football.

| 1 year ago

Introduction to Opportunity Index

When it comes to potential fantasy points the first stat many people tend to jump to is opportunity – you’ll hear people ask questions like how many carries did a running back receive or how many times was a receiver targeted? The logic is easy to follow as the more opportunities a player gets, the more fantasy points he should score – theoretically.

But what if all opportunities aren’t created equal? In today’s advanced metric craze, there’s no reason why we should have to take them all at face value. That’s where Opportunity Index (OI) comes in – and, by all means, if you have a catchier name please offer it up.

I’ll be talking about OI a lot around these parts this season so why not give you a nice primer on exactly what OI is, why it’s useful, and how you can use it in your fantasy analysis.

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  • John Miller

    I’m confused, Opp/gm. Quarterback: I assume that does not mean they throw the ball on average, in the case of Luck 26.8 ( I believe on average his attempts are in the high 30’s ) times but it also does not make sense that luck has 26.8 opp/gm inside the red zone. Can you explain in better detail opp/gm?

    • George Fitopoulos

      Hey John – I explained in my “Measuring QBs” paragraph why I decided to use completions over pass attempts for my analysis. That should explain why Opp/Gm for quarterbacks seems low — Total Opportunity = Pass Completion + Rush Attempt.

      To me, it made sense to base opportunity on completions because if a QB is throwing the ball 50+ times it’s typically because he’s inefficient at completing passes and therefore those extra pass attempts are actually empty opportunities. Hope that helps!

  • averagejoe43

    Hey George…I was reading your most recent article on your opportunity index and came here because I was confused concerning xFPTS and FPTS. You said in your recent article “Only Newton has found the end zone while running the ball, which will
    explain why he’s the closest to putting up his expected fantasy points.” when comparing Newton to Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. Since I thought that Wilson’s numbers showed him to getting the higher percentage of expected fantasy points—(if I understood it right)—, I figured I’ld find your article explaining opportunity index and see if I could understand your thinking. But here I am and am confused by your 2nd chart…your heat map. In the chart—(again if I understand it)—you are saying the best opportunity for fantasy points occurs when the team is at the 1 yard line….and RB carries having the highest percentage…and that is pretty obvious. But your chart tiltles the best opportunity as goal line5. I take it that goal line 5 must be from the 1 yard line as it has the best percentage but if so why call it goal line 5? I like your thinking but am having a hard time understanding your process. Is there another article explaining every “category” you make in your charts or is there a legend? Sorry for being so confused and I’m sure my post is just as confusing.