Hilton hard to trust

Mike Castiglione breaks down 5 key trends and their fantasy implications for Week 8.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)

(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)

Hilton hard to trust

Let’s quickly recap how the five key trends from Week 7 panned out:

Hopefully you were convinced to avoid the Colin Kaepernick mirage following consecutive 20-point outings, as the 49ers had more punts than first downs against Seattle on Thursday night.

I also advised to ride Lamar Miller as an RB1, and he went on to deliver the top fantasy finish among running backs in Week 7 and now ranks inside the top three in elusive rating among qualified rushers on the season. Also in the Miami game, Ryan Tannehill was projected to finish inside the top-10 fantasy QBs, and he delivered with a No. 3 finish.

I deemed John Brown a WR2 the rest of the way, and he was a mid-WR2 in all formats against Baltimore’s leaky pass defense.

I pegged Ben Watson as a one-week blip rather than a breakout, and he came back down to Earth with a No. 16 finish among fantasy TEs.

DeMarco Murray (RB29) was a bad call, however, as he had a lackluster day against a Panthers defense that entered the week ranked in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points against opposing rushers. But Ryan Mathews (RB8) once again capitalized on his limited opportunities, and Zach Ertz (TE11) continued to see more snaps in two-tight end sets as previously noted, finishing with a team-high 63 yards on five catches.

Lastly, back in Week 6 while Tampa Bay was on bye, recall I dissected the many reasons why Mike Evans is still a WR1 and advised to either buy low or hold. Well, he backed that up as the No. 3 fantasy WR coming out of the bye in Week 7 and with Vincent Jackson possibly out this week, I’m expecting more of the same.

Moving on to the key trends for Week 8:

Perception vs. Reality: Tedd Ginn Jr.

Slowly but surely, Tedd Ginn Jr. has established himself as Carolina’s top pass-catching option not named Greg Olsen. Ginn has played 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, and while his 33 targets (5.5 per game) may not look like all that much, they are nearly double that of the next closest receiver on the team (Devin Funchess with 18). And averaging a healthy 15.7 yards per catch, he has proven that he can still get downfield at age 30.

With only 18 catches on the year, he’s more of a standard league flex option than a PPR play. But after totaling only three catches for 36 yards (albeit with two TDs) over his previous two outings, Ginn got back on track with five catches for 59 yards against Philadelphia in Week 7. In fact, take away those two aforementioned games, and Ginn has averaged 62 receiving yards on seven targets in his other four contests. He is also on pace for eight touchdowns this season.

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Mike is a member of the FSWA and a staff writer for PFF Fantasy who focuses on both redraft and dynasty content, having spent several years covering FBS for a number of publications.

  • Ryan Baetz

    Good read Mike, any concern over Vontae Davis covering Ginn?

    • stikolaboloni

      Thanks. And yeah, definitely concern, though Ginn does line up on the other side 25% of the time according to our wr-cb chart (and I think they’ll try to move him around a bit). https://www.profootballfocus.com/toolkit/wr-cb-chart/

      He’s still just a flex dart throw to pop one this week and not so much rack up catches, main point being he has warranted some fantasy attention

      • Ryan Baetz

        Thanks for the reply!