Gaming the Game – Week 7 DFS Strategy

Renee Miller discusses a Week 7 DFS strategy based on analyzing confidence intervals in fantasy points.

| 2 years ago
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Gaming the Game – Week 7 DFS Strategy


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The more people you talk to about DFS, the more you realize how many different approaches there are to building a lineup. From what position you start with, to your overall spending plan (studs/scrubs or all average), to how you decide between two very similar options at a position, your answers and mine will likely be different.

 

 

 

I like to start with a broad overview of the week or night. Starting with Vegas lines I rank the games from highest to lowest over/under. Next I use a combination of PFF grades and traditional offensive/defensive stats to pick out the best offensive/defensive mismatches for rushing and passing. This gives me a rough list of games and players to target, all before I even look at salaries. What I do next is to go position by position, loosely classifying players according to their expected output and confidence interval around that expectation. Without doing actual math, let me illustrate what I mean and why I think it’s a useful approach for building lineups.

 

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Renee Miller is a neuroscientist and fantasy sports enthusiast. She's played NBA and NFL DFS since 2011/12 and added MLB to her addiction this summer. Recently, Renee combined her knowledge of the brain with her love of football in an eBook, "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?". You can find the book on her website www.unbiasedfantasysports.com. She'll be writing this weekly NFL DFS strategy column.

  • dave

    thanks , great info

  • Tim

    Isn’t using a statistical analysis to determine expected output of a player kind of irrelevant? Player output is not normally distributed, too small of a sample size.