Gaming the Game – NFL DFS Strategy Week 11

Renee Miller uses multiple lines of evidence and Venn diagram theory to build an NFL DFS lineup with Week 11's more difficult pricing and matchups.

| 3 years ago

Gaming the Game – NFL DFS Strategy Week 11

imgres-3Last week, I discussed using a converging evidence or Venn Diagram based strategy to pick the players that give you a blend of safety and upside for your cash game lineups. You can read more about the philosophy behind it here. Basically, I consider three factors: Volume (total fantasy points on the season), Efficiency (fpts per opportunity, per Mike Clay), and MatchUp (per ESPN fpts allowed to position). If a player profiles as top 10 in all three categories, he makes the cut. Salary comes into play and can help you decide between two or more players with similarly good outlooks.

Sometimes, as with a case like Martavis Bryant, you need to ignore a category like season long production, since he’s only played in four games. Other times, I’ll downgrade the matchup category if a player stands out to the extent that he can be considered matchup-proof and is priced right. The lineup I suggested last week scored 196 DK points, which is a great target for cash games. We have a very different matchup landscape for Week 11–not nearly as friendly as Week 10 was–so I thought we could test the Venn power under more difficult conditions.

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Renee Miller is a neuroscientist and fantasy sports enthusiast. She's played NBA and NFL DFS since 2011/12 and added MLB to her addiction this summer. Recently, Renee combined her knowledge of the brain with her love of football in an eBook, "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?". You can find the book on her website She'll be writing this weekly NFL DFS strategy column.

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