Fantasy: Who is Cam Newton?

Cam Newton, the NFL's rookie of the year and a strong candidate for 2011 fantasy player of the year, exceeded all expectations last season. His 14 rushing touchdowns were an NFL record for quarterbacks, and he scored 352 fantasy points in standard leagues. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees scored more, while Tom Brady joined Newton at 352 points. That's elite company for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.

With his exceptional season in the books, will Newton be overvalued next season? We have nobody to compare him to and say, “X player dropped Y amount after a rookie season like that.” It's never been done before. We are about to enter uncharted territory.

Who to compare him to as a passer?

The best comparison for Newton the passer is Ben Roethlisberger. They are both build similarly–Roethlisberger is 6'5″ and 244 pounds, Newton 6'5″ and 241 pounds. Not only are they the same size, but they ended up with nearly identical statistics in many major passing categories.

Roethlisberger was a better passer, as his +13.8 PFF passer rating dwarfs Newton's -9.4. Newton also ended the season with more games with a negative PFF passing grade (9) than a positive grade (7). However, this comparison chart shows that in the fantasy realm, Roethlisberger and Newton produced very similarly through the air.

Who to compare him to as a runner?

Where owners really find value in Newton is in his running. His +18.9 season grade for running is the best ever recorded for a quarterback at PFF since the 2008 season. Second best was Tebow with +12.5 in 2011. Vick registered a +12.4 season in 2010 in just 12 games. Newton's grade stands above the rest though, helped in large part by a ridiculous eight games with at least a +1.6 PFF run grade.

I took Newton, Vick, Tebow, Rodgers, and added David Garrard to get a group of quarterbacks who have been tagged as a “dual-threat” in recent years. This was done in search for the 10 best individual games by “running” quarterbacks since 2008. There ended up being 11 games due to ties, but Newton found his name on the list four times after just one season.

So who is Newton like? It would be easiest to compare him to Vick simply because they both run. It would also be wrong. Vick reamins unaccompanied atop the “athletic running quarterbacks” mountain, as he holds the top three spots. You'll find that for every personal best Newton has, Tebow has tied him. When we dig a little deeper, we find that these two players produce at a very similar level when running the ball in nearly all categories.

The big difference is, obviously, touchdowns. Newton was able to score 14 touchdowns because he was literally Carolina's goal-line back. Neither Jonathan Stewart nor DeAngelo Williams finished 2011 in RB2 territory as a result. Again, we are in uncharted territory here, but it's hard to imagine Newton producing as many touchdowns in 2012.

The Carolina quarterback's 14 rushing touchdowns are an NFL record for a reason–it's not a regular thing. They should regress down to the 7-9 range, which is still wonderful production from a quarterback. Even if Newton scored just two rushing touchdowns instead of 14, he still would have finished 2011 as a top five fantasy quarterback.

What's next?

Newton deserves to be a first round draft pick next season. You may be able to get “safer” picks in Tom Brady or Drew Brees after the first round, but Newton's ceiling is a little higher right now. His injury risk factor is no higher than any other player, and he will be a sure-fire starter even if he scores just two rushing touchdowns in 2012. With a full offseason of work with the coaches – something he did not have last season – his passing skills are sure to improve. That means we can expect more touchdowns, less interceptions, and at least 4,000 yards again.

The biggest question surrounding Newton doesn't even have to do with Newton. The question is: Will Steve Smith be as productive as a 33-year-old as he was as a 32-year-old? Newton leaned heavily on Smith, and the receiver bailed his quarterback out of a few tight situations. Smith was thrown at 127 times. Every other Carolina wide receiver combined had 132 targets. [Editor's Note: The Panthers should seek receiver help in the draft or free agency.]

Have any questions or comments? Send them to Tyler Loechner @PFF_Loechner