Three fantasy QBs overrated by traditional numbers

Diving into PFF's QBR shows some quarterbacks get overrated by traditional passing grades. Pat Thorman breaks down the names.

| 7 months ago
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Three fantasy QBs overrated by traditional numbers


Traditional ways of rating a quarterback can mislead. Completing a high percentage of passes with a average depth of target of a minuscule 6.8 yards can artificially boost an quarterback in the NFL’s traditional passer rating (looking at you, Alex Smith).

By contrast, PFF’s Quarterback Rating factors in dropped passes, throwaways, spikes and the work a receiver does after the catch. PFF’s QBR, along with other signature statistics, help paint a truer picture of performance.

Last time, we looked at three quarterbacks who were undervalued based on the traditional metric and looked better through the lens of PFF’s metrics. This time, we’re doing the opposite. The following quarterbacks had a strong showing by NFL’s passer rating, but suffered when compared to the PFF numbers.

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

At first glance, Carr appeared to have had a wildly successful second NFL season in 2015. His passing grade ranked ninth. The downside is that the difference between where he ranked in NFL passer rating (19th) and PFF QBR (13th) was the 10th-largest positive gap. A closer look reveals Carr had an outstanding first half and a mediocre-at-best final eight games. His PFF QBR during the second half of the season (84.2) ranked 26th, a significant step down from his seventh-best mark (93.0) during the Raiders’ first eight games.

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Pat Thorman is a lead writer for PFF Fantasy and a Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner.

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