Sell Doug Baldwin in dynasty leagues

Tyler Loechner releases the Week 15 trade value chart and says you should sell high on Doug Baldwin in dynasty leagues.

| 12 months ago
(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Sell Doug Baldwin in dynasty leagues


Welcome to the Week 15 edition of the 2015 fantasy football trade value chart, which can help you strike a trade if you’re looking to improve your team and maximize value. Skip to the bottom if you just want to browse the chart, but keep reading if you want help making sense of it all.

We also have an updated Fantasy 124, the fantasy football stock market index showing the value of the (roughly) 124 most valuable fantasy football players on a weekly basis. The index — and the trade value charts — rely on PFF Fantasy’s Rest-of-Season projections from Mike Clay. The dollar amounts assume a 12-team league with a $200 cap and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex. There are two charts — one for standard leagues and one for points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

The purpose of the Fantasy 124 is to show risers and fallers at a macro level. As you can see below, compared to Week 14, the trade value of every position — save for running back — rose this week

With the fantasy football playoffs now upon us, it’s unlikely much trading is taking place. For the rest of the season, this article will peer at the trade value charts with dynasty leagues in mind.

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fantasy-124-week-15

The Fantasy 124 rose 1.44 points — or 0.14 percent — week-over-week. The Fantasy 124 now sits at 1038.30, its highest mark of the season.

Who are some buy low and sell high candidates from a dynasty perspective?

You should look to buy low on Mark Ingram in dynasty leagues. He will be out for the rest of the 2015 season, and there’s always an opportunity to buy low on young(ish) running backs who go down because of injury. Ingram will still only be 26 years old next year, and he’ll still be in New Orleans, where he’s been featured for nearly two seasons.

Ingram put up top-five numbers at the running back position this season and he’ll be an elite RB1 again in 2016, and perhaps beyond. Strike now while his value is at its lowest point.

Buy low on Tyler Eifert, whose value dropped $36 this week. He still won’t come cheap, but 2015’s breakout tight end (along with Gary Barnidge) is devalued right now because of injuries of his own and because of the injury to Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.

Eifert is a touchdown machine, and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case in future seasons.

He’s also an extremely efficient fantasy scorer. Among tight ends with at least 30 targets, Eifert is tied with Rob Gronkowski in terms of fantasy points per opportunity (PPO). You couldn’t ask for better company.

Sell high on Doug Baldwin, whose value has jumped another $82 this week. He appears to be a strong wideout for the rest of the 2015 season, but he’s as obvious of a negative regression candidate as it gets.

Baldwin has an insane eight touchdowns over the past three weeks; he had eight touchdowns in 2013 and 2014 combined.

His touchdown rate will drop precipitously, and his fantasy value will come crashing down with it. It’s highly probable that at this moment, Baldwin’s dynasty value will never be higher.

Buy low on Jeremy Langford. The rookie running back’s true buy low window closed several weeks ago (when he broke out while filling in for an injured Matt Forte), but it’s been obvious since Forte’s return that the Bears love Langford.

Here’s the surprise stat of the week: Langford saw 32 snaps in Week 14, while Forte saw 30.

Scan the Fantasy 124 and the trade value charts below, and remember that they are meant to serve as a guideline to help you strike a deal — there are no hard and fast rules here. Be sure to check in each week to see how the market is moving and how you can take advantage of it.

Week 15 Fantasy Trade Values – PPR
Player Position Value Change Player Position Value Change
Devonta Freeman RB $389 -$15 Jeremy Hill RB $54 $20
Julio Jones WR $313 $16 Matthew Stafford QB $52 $37
Adrian L. Peterson RB $309 $28 Eli Manning QB $43 $11
Antonio Brown WR $296 -$35 Brandon LaFell WR $43 -$10
DeAngelo Williams RB $284 $40 Demaryius Thomas WR $43 -$10
LeSean McCoy RB $284 -$17 Kamar Aiken WR $43 $3
Odell Beckham Jr. WR $264 $42 Jeremy Langford RB $41 $18
Larry Fitzgerald WR $248 -$9 Matthew Jones RB $41 $26
Tim Hightower RB $230 $230 Travis Kelce TE $35 -$63
DeAndre Hopkins WR $226 -$56 Matt Ryan QB $35 -$4
Greg Olsen TE $198 $8 John Brown WR $33 $3
Rob Gronkowski TE $198 $146 Sammy Watkins WR $33 -$51
Russell Wilson QB $192 $83 DuJuan Harris RB $33 $33
Lamar Miller RB $192 $33 Spencer Ware RB $33 $10
Allen Robinson WR $184 $22 Jason Witten TE $30 $23
Alshon Jeffery WR $184 $33 Randall Cobb WR $26 -$35
Javorius Allen RB $179 $43 Theo Riddick RB $26 -$14
Cam Newton QB $169 $13 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB $25 $20
Frank Gore RB $166 $21 Tyrod Taylor QB $25 -$7
Brandon Marshall WR $165 $28 Zach Ertz TE $25 $5
Calvin Johnson WR $165 -$13 Travis Benjamin WR $22 -$2
Doug Martin RB $155 -$25 Ameer Abdullah RB $21 $3
Jonathan C. Stewart RB $155 $49 Andre Ellington RB $21 -$8
Jarvis Landry WR $148 -$3 DeMarco Murray RB $21 -$138
Carson Palmer QB $141 -$1 Fred Jackson RB $21 $21
Tom Brady QB $141 $12 Coby Fleener TE $21 $12
Charcandrick West RB $139 $3 Richard Rodgers TE $21 $8
Latavius Murray RB $139 $45 DeSean Jackson WR $19 $6
Todd Gurley RB $139 -$63 Dez Bryant WR $19 -$54
Danny Amendola WR $125 -$12 Emmanuel Sanders WR $19 $6
Eric Decker WR $125 $23 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE $16 $3
Mike Evans WR $125 $72 Heath Miller TE $16 -$9
David A. Johnson RB $121 $45 Jacob Tamme TE $16 -$36
Eddie Lacy RB $121 $64 Tyler Eifert TE $16 -$36
Matt Forte RB $121 $2 Philip Rivers QB $14 -$1
Shaun Draughn RB $121 $15 James White RB $13 $13
Drew Brees QB $113 $37 Melvin Gordon RB $13 -$16
Delanie Walker TE $111 $51 T.J. Yeldon RB $13 -$123
Doug Baldwin WR $106 $82 Allen Hurns WR $13 -$2
Martavis Bryant WR $106 $22 Tyler Lockett WR $13 $13
Michael Crabtree WR $106 -$4 Willie Snead WR $9 $7
Blake Bortles QB $100 $3 Zach Miller TE $9 $9
Jordan Reed TE $88 -$10 Ryan Tannehill QB $8 $3
Aaron Rodgers QB $88 -$9 Ryan Mathews RB $8 $8
Danny Woodhead RB $83 $7 Jordan Matthews WR $7 -$23
A.J. Green WR $80 -$98 Ryan Griffin TE $7 $4
Amari Cooper WR $80 -$22 Charles Sims RB $5 -$1
Golden Tate WR $80 $40 Davante Adams WR $5 -$8
C.J. Spiller RB $69 $67 Charles Clay TE $5 -$0
Chris Ivory RB $69 $3 Vance McDonald TE $5 $3
Darren McFadden RB $69 -$111 Will Tye TE $5 $5
Darren Sproles RB $69 $54 Johnny Manziel QB $4 $4
Ben Roethlisberger QB $68 $15 Marcus Mariota QB $4 $4
Derek Carr QB $68 $15 Donte Moncrief WR $4 -$20
Jeremy Maclin WR $66 $32 Marvin Jones WR $4 $1
Michael Floyd WR $66 $61 Nate Washington WR $4 -$1
Antonio Gates TE $58 $38 Robert Woods WR $4 $4
Ben Watson TE $58 $24 Ted Ginn WR $4 $4
Gary Barnidge TE $58 $29 Chris Polk RB $3 $3
Julius Thomas TE $58 -$13 Duke Johnson RB $3 -$37
Anquan Boldin WR $56 $32 Shane Vereen RB $3 -$12
Brandin Cooks WR $56 $3 Kyle Rudolph TE $3 -$1
Steve Johnson WR $56 -$17 Eric Ebron TE $2 $1
T.Y. Hilton WR $56 -$35 Brandon Bolden RB $1 $1
Bilal Powell RB $54 $44 Denard Robinson RB $1 $1
C.J. Anderson RB $54 -$29 James Starks RB $1 $1
Giovani Bernard RB $54 -$3

 

Week 15 Fantasy Trade Values – Standard
Player Position Value Change Player Position Value Change
Adrian L. Peterson RB $362 -$70 John Brown WR $45 $24
Devonta Freeman RB $343 -$20 Antonio Gates TE $45 -$22
DeAngelo Williams RB $285 $64 Gary Barnidge TE $45 $59
Antonio Brown WR $280 $13 Matthew Jones RB $43 -$12
LeSean McCoy RB $272 -$20 Emmanuel Sanders WR $43 -$7
Russell Wilson QB $252 $45 Sammy Watkins WR $41 -$17
Julio Jones WR $252 -$12 Jeremy Langford RB $39 $5
Odell Beckham Jr. WR $225 -$43 Dez Bryant WR $39 $1
Cam Newton QB $222 $29 Randall Cobb WR $38 -$8
Tim Hightower RB $222 -$38 Ryan Mathews RB $37 $6
Larry Fitzgerald WR $201 $28 Jason Witten TE $36 -$38
Todd Gurley RB $200 $10 Darren Sproles RB $35 -$12
DeAndre Hopkins WR $188 $47 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB $33 $58
Carson Palmer QB $186 $27 Tyrod Taylor QB $33 -$20
Tom Brady QB $186 $12 Ben Watson TE $33 $12
Doug Martin RB $177 $16 Giovani Bernard RB $32 $6
Jonathan C. Stewart RB $169 -$10 Julius Thomas TE $30 $5
Allen Robinson WR $163 -$3 Chris Polk RB $30 -$10
Frank Gore RB $158 -$21 Zach Ertz TE $29 -$17
Drew Brees QB $149 $24 Willie Snead WR $27 $31
David A. Johnson RB $147 $51 Travis Kelce TE $27 -$83
Brandon Marshall WR $146 -$43 DeMarco Murray RB $27 -$2
Calvin Johnson WR $140 $5 Allen Hurns WR $26 $5
Latavius Murray RB $140 -$32 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE $25 $48
Martavis Bryant WR $136 $10 Andre Ellington RB $24 $7
Lamar Miller RB $134 -$8 Stefon Diggs WR $22 -$29
Blake Bortles QB $132 -$36 Alfred Morris RB $22 -$10
Charcandrick West RB $130 -$10 Jacob Tamme TE $22 $21
Michael Crabtree WR $122 $6 Coby Fleener TE $21 $48
Jeremy Hill RB $118 -$22 C.J. Spiller RB $20 -$8
Greg Olsen TE $118 $30 Davante Adams WR $20 $25
Eric Decker WR $118 -$6 Tyler Lockett WR $20 $70
Aaron Rodgers QB $115 $3 Philip Rivers QB $19 $16
Alshon Jeffery WR $113 -$38 Heath Miller TE $19 -$26
Michael Floyd WR $109 $15 Tyler Eifert TE $18 $68
Eddie Lacy RB $108 -$67 Zach Miller TE $18 -$2
Doug Baldwin WR $105 $35 Marvin Jones WR $18 $6
Rob Gronkowski TE $103 -$28 Richard Rodgers TE $17 -$35
Matt Forte RB $101 $49 Vance McDonald TE $17 -$11
Chris Ivory RB $96 -$83 Nate Washington WR $16 $59
Mike Evans WR $95 $65 Jordan Matthews WR $16 $13
Ben Roethlisberger QB $90 $34 Ronnie Hillman RB $15 -$1
Derek Carr QB $90 -$108 Ted Ginn WR $15 $12
Shaun Draughn RB $89 -$18 Dontrelle Inman WR $14 $102
Brandon LaFell WR $85 $12 Robert Woods WR $13 $26
Darren McFadden RB $83 $16 Ryan Griffin TE $13 $11
Jarvis Landry WR $80 $19 Denard Robinson RB $12 $34
C.J. Anderson RB $80 -$19 Isaiah Crowell RB $12 $4
Spencer Ware RB $71 -$11 Rueben Randle WR $12 -$41
Matthew Stafford QB $69 -$37 Kyle Rudolph TE $12 -$1
Fred Jackson RB $66 $14 Cecil Shorts WR $11 $23
Amari Cooper WR $65 $5 Charles Clay TE $11 $30
Kamar Aiken WR $65 $53 Ryan Tannehill QB $11 $6
Delanie Walker TE $65 -$35 Antonio Andrews RB $10 -$31
A.J. Green WR $63 $43 Donte Moncrief WR $8 -$169
DuJuan Harris RB $62 $62 LeGarrette Blount RB $7 -$40
Steve Johnson WR $59 $57 Will Tye TE $7 $15
Javorius Allen RB $59 $11 Eric Ebron TE $6 -$2
Eli Manning QB $57 $23 Pierre Garcon WR $6 $222
Jeremy Maclin WR $56 $42 Kendall Wright WR $6 -$4
Danny Amendola WR $54 $5 James White RB $6 $9
Ameer Abdullah RB $53 $49 Crockett Gillmore TE $6 $18
Anquan Boldin WR $52 $66 Jordan Cameron TE $6 -$36
Golden Tate WR $51 -$1 Johnny Manziel QB $5 -$35
Brandin Cooks WR $50 $2 Marcus Mariota QB $5 $20
Demaryius Thomas WR $49 $23 Dorial Green-Beckham WR $5 -$13
DeSean Jackson WR $49 -$9 Theo Riddick RB $5 $11
Danny Woodhead RB $47 $3 Shane Vereen RB $4 $7
Travis Benjamin WR $47 $10 Melvin Gordon RB $2 $22
Jordan Reed TE $47 -$4 T.J. Yeldon RB $2 $9
T.Y. Hilton WR $46 $6 Joique Bell RB $1 $0
Matt Ryan QB $46 -$22



Tyler Loechner is a lead writer at PFF Fantasy. He has played fantasy football since 1999 and has been a part of the PFF Fantasy staff since 2010. Tyler was also previously a fantasy football featured columnist at Bleacher Report.

  • Dan

    This guy was so wrong on Baldwin.