Fantasy: James Starks Could Be Fantasy's MVP

When it comes to running backs, I like to make sure my fantasy team is loaded up with them. I need so many running backs that my fantasy teams should probably be featured on Hoarders: Fantasy Football Edition. But not all running backs are worth hoarding. For example, unless it’s a deep league or a really late pick, I don’t like handcuffs. Nothing personal against them, it’s just that I like to maximize the upside of my bench rather than have a player handcuffed to my bench who could otherwise be dropped in-season for a better waiver player. There are a few exceptions, especially in today’s NFL where split backfields are common, and a backfield running mate could have legitimate fantasy value regardless of if they’re the “starter” or not. But nevertheless, I’m always on the hunt for value and upside.

This year, I am locked onto one of my mid-round running back targets: James Starks.

Now I already know the first objection to this choice: the Packers don’t run the ball enough to have a reliable fantasy running back. Well that’s partially true. They have trended towards throwing more often each of the last four years, and finished 23^rd last year in terms of the frequency of plays they called run on and 26^th in total rushing attempts. But they still managed to finish above teams like the Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans in terms of rush attempts, all of whom manage to have (or would have had) 1,000-yard rushers. Not only that, but Ryan Grant had two 1,200-yard rushing seasons in 2008 and 2009 with an offense that ran less than 440 times each year. So it’s certainly not out of the question that a team can still have a viable fantasy running back despite not running all that often themselves.

So now that that’s out of the way, let’s take a look at three star running backs that match up surprisingly well with Starks, statistically: Ray Rice, Ryan Mathews, and Darren McFadden.

First we’ll take a quick look at total usage. Because Starks had his 2010 breakout in the playoffs, and because it helps to increase the sample size, I’ve decided to use total snaps and carries as opposed to just regular season numbers. The standout amongst this group is Ray Rice, who has been an absolute workhorse each of the last two seasons. The only other outlier to note is Mathews carrying the ball on 46.1% of his snaps while the other three sat around 33%. This is purely semantics, and going forward you will see how the numbers start to converge.

When given the chance to touch the ball, it’s clear that Starks has the ability to hang with the big boys. In fact, his yards per carry almost mirror  Rice’s over the last two years. After coming back later in 2010 after starting the season on the PUP list, it was certainly encouraging to see his yards per carry rise from a pedestrian 3.8 in 2010 to 4.5 in 2011. While not quite in the same neighborhood as  Mathews' rushing numbers, and nowhere near McFadden’s amazing average, Starks certainly proves to be no slouch last year. Even more impressive is Starks' yards after contact average. He’s remained pretty consistent each of the last two years, and outperformed Ray Rice in that category both seasons. Again, he’s just off the pace of Mathews and McFadden, but it certainly shows that he runs hard.

When we dig even deeper and look into our advanced stats, you really start to gain a real appreciation for Starks’ talent. Based on pure running ability, the Green Bay running back was right there with Rice and McFadden in 2010, and paced the entire group in 2011 by a decent margin. The PFF run rating has proven to be a solid source of predicting fantasy value, and it’s clear from the results that Starks has the same level of ability as some of the stars. Moving on to elusiveness rating, Starks once again proves to be up to the task of keeping pace with the studs. After finishing with a solid 31.5 elusiveness rating in 2010, Starks again finished atop the group. And just like his run rating in 2011, Starks again had the highest total rating amongst the group in the study.

While he’s clearly not a game-breaker like McFadden, Starks has almost identical breakaway percentages as Ray Rice, and clearly has the ability to explode for a big gain at any time.

Now lets see how Starks measures up in the passing game with these PPR goliaths.

It shouldn’t come as a big surprise that it’s in the passing game where PPR studs like Rice, McFadden, and Mathews differentiate themselves from Starks. What is a surprise is that despite their talent in the passing game, Starks has proven to be the superior option in pass blocking each year, posting near perfect pass blocking efficiency in both 2010 and 2011. Even more encouraging is the consistency between his pass blocking numbers, which should hopefully translate well if Starks is to be given more action on passing downs. It’s pretty clear that Rice, McFadden, and Mathews are preferred options in the passing game, with Rice and McFadden posting elite drop rates. While Starks’ 10.81% drop rate in 2011 isn’t terrible, there’s definitely room for improvement in that area, especially if he hopes to earn Aaron Rodgers' trust in the passing game.

In terms of yards per reception and yards per pass route run, Starks really starts to lag behind the rest. Both years he finished dead last in each area. Clearly the heavy usage in the passing game helps Rice, McFadden, and Mathews pad their stats a bit, but these numbers don’t tell the whole story about a player’s ability in the passing game. Thanks to Mike Clay’s aDOT, we can get a better sense of how these players really performed.

As we can see, Starks is immediately at a huge disadvantage with an aDOT over a yard and a half behind anyone else in the group. To see what kind of impact this made, I looked at how many yards per target each running back had, and normalized them by adjusting their aDOT. As you can see, Starks once again leads the pack, and even in the passing game he’s able to maintain an elite pace. Ryan Grant’s aDOT was an even 0.0 last season, so there’s certainly hope that Starks’ will rise to a more favorable level, resulting in improved fantasy production from the passing game.

So as we can see, Starks looks like he belongs with the top running backs in the league, yet he’s being ridiculously undervalued.

Rice, Mathews or McFadden are being universally drafted as RB1's, which they most certainly are. Yet Starks is tied to the highest scoring offense of them all, is the unquestioned starting running back, and isn’t even being taken as a RB3. Now I don’t think Starks is anywhere near the other three in terms of fantasy upside, as he’s almost certainly not going to get near as much usage as them. But if Starks can remain healthy, I can’t see a situation where he finishes as less than a RB2 in both PPR and standard leagues. And worst case scenario is you lost an investment you made on what’s most likely your RB4 or RB5. The risk is eliminated and the upside is evident. Don’t miss out on this early pick for fantasy MVP as the best value of the year.

Projection: 211 carries, 907 rushing yards, 45 receptions, 294 receiving yards, 7 TDs