Fantasy: IDP Studs, Sleepers and Busts

Fantasy draft season is in full swing and training camp battles are shedding light on starting line-ups across the NFL. As we learn which linebackers are taking nickel snaps and what rookies are breaking into the 1s, I’ve gathered the collective opinions of the PFF IDP Fantasy staff to help you know who to target and who to avoid.

On a positional basis the IDP team has voted for their top player in a traditional, tackle-heavy scoring format, their top player in the PFF IDP scoring system, as well as a sleeper and a bust/overdrafted player.

Defensive Tackle

There’s a clear #1 selection here and it’s no surprise. After an exceptional rookie season, Ndamukong Suh has quickly established himself as a terror on the inside of the line and should push double-digit sacks in 2011. Even in leagues that do not separate DTs and DEs, Suh holds significant value. The other notable name on the list is Albert Haynesworth. Having being signed by the Patriots, Bill Belichick’s ability to reignite the careers of trouble stars has many excited. Haynesworth gets three mentions for being over-drafted by Miles, Ratcliffe and Yeomans, but Farnham believes he holds enough upside to be a potential DT1.  Vince Wilfork splits opinion being Greenstein’s tackle-heavy #1, but also Daneshgar’s potential bust.

Defensive End

Trent Cole was an IDP stud before the retooling of the Philadelphia defense, but the signings of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should help with coverage sacks, whilst Jason Babin as his bookend will also attract attention. As a result Cole is the #1 DE to target by consensus opinion. Justin Tuck is also seen a premier pass-rushing option, especially in systems that reward big-plays. When it comes to sleepers and busts, the picture is not so clear. Rookie Adrian Clayborn gets Daneshgar’s stamp of approval, while Curry worries about the hype surrounding Robert Quinn in Spagnuolo’s blitz heavy system. One thing that is clear is that there is momentum for change on the Giants D-Line opposite Tuck, with Jason Pierre-Paul being selected as Miles’ sleeper, and Osi Umenyiora getting two mentions for being overdrafted (Greenstein and Yeomans). Despite Ray Edwards departure from Minnesota, Jared Allen is Yeomans’ #1 DE this year, but Edwards himself gets named twice in the bust list (Ratcliffe and Daneshgar).

Linebackers

Unsurprisingly Patrick Willis is the majority selection to be the top LB for the coming season. Only Farnham disagrees and names Lawrence Timmons as the heir apparent, although Curry believes David Hawthorne will be a threat in tackle heavy scoring systems. Miles names Donald Butler as his sleeper with the sophomore looking ready to assume the role of an every-down linebacker in San Diego. Daryl Washington is Ratcliffe’s selection on the same grounds. Moving to play ILB in Cleveland gets D’Qwell Jackson two mentions as a sleeper from Curry and Daneshgar. Looking at the overdrafted players Jerod Mayo is nominated by Miles and Ratcliffe after news the Patriots will be running more 4-3 in 2011, moving Mayo to WLB. Mayo will still have plenty of opportunities, but he’s no longer the top 5 lock he has been drafted as. The switch to the 3-4 by Wade Phillips has landed Mario Williams and Brian Cushing on the bust list, as is regression favorite Stephen Tulloch after such high snap numbers for the Titans last year.

Cornerbacks

It’s clear that in big-play systems that Charles Woodson is the CB to own, but the picture is not so clear in tackle-heavy systems. Terrell Thomas gets several mentions as a potential #1 CB, but also finds himself listed as a potential fantasy bust by Daneshgar and Farnham. Daneshgar is high on Joe Haden to break out as a fantasy stud this year after his 6 interceptions as a rookie, while Miles has him as a sleeper candidate. DeAngelo Hall is the clear choice as the most overdrafted cornerback, possibly because he is unlikely to repeat his 4 pick one game performance in 2011. The sleeper picks highlight rookies Jimmy Smith and Patrick Peterson (Curry’s tackle-heavy #1) as players to target, while perennially under-rated Brent Grimes could well break out if he can turn some of his passes defensed into interceptions.

Safeties

The picture seems relatively clear at safety, target TJ Ward in tackle heavy formats, and Eric Berry in those that favor big plays. Tyvon Branch gets an honorable mention as selection of both Curry and Yeomans in tackle-heavy leagues. The sleepers selections throw up seven different choices, which highlights the difficulty of evaluating defensive backs for fantasy purposes. Miles elected Kam Chancellor, who has assumed the starting SS role in Seattle, but notes it was a narrow selection over George Wilson (who was Curry’s #1 in the PFF scoring system) who has the same duties for the Browns. Tanard Jackson gets Yeomans nomination as despite his suspension issues, Jackson has DB2 potential if on the field. Michael Griffin (Titans regression) and Bernard Pollard (age) both received two votes as fantasy busts.

Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles.