A.J. Green over DeAndre Hopkins for fantasy in 2016

The Houston receiver is getting more love in early drafts so far, but Mike Tagliere says the Cincinnati option is the better one.

| 1 year ago
(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

(AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

A.J. Green over DeAndre Hopkins for fantasy in 2016

As it stands now, among wide receivers, Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins is going fourth in early fantasy drafts. Cincinnati’s A.J. Green, meanwhile, is going sixth. The overall gap is slightly bigger: Hopkins is going eighth overall, a mid-to-late first-rounder. Green is 12th, so closer to (or in) the second round.

At a glance, these ADPs make some sense. After all, Hopkins had 218 fantasy points last year, while Green had only 189. Hopkins had 25 more receptions and 307 more yards than Green. Maybe Hopkins deserves his spot above Green?

I’m not so sure. Today, I’m looking at the two receivers facet by facet, and at the end you’ll see why my recommendation is that A.J. Green should be drafted ahead of DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy this season.

Strength of quarterback

It was nice to see Hopkins take a step forward last year, especially considering his quarterback situation, although Brian Hoyer was better than some wanted to give him credit for (he graded negatively in just three of his 11 regular-season games). There have been some big offseason changes to the Texans roster, including Hopkins’ new quarterback, Brock Osweiler.

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  • Mike F

    Glad to see this article and totally agree. Question for you, Mike. Do you have any data on how quarterback changes affect target numbers for receivers who had a ton of targets the previous season? As you stated, Lamar Miller and the young Texan WRs figure to cut into Hopkins targets this year, but I’m wondering how much of Hopkins high target total was due to Hoyer locking in on him compared to just a lack of other quality receiving options. Or maybe the latter just leads to the former?