Fantasy News & Analysis

Quarterback Strength of Schedule: The perfect pairings

NASHVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 11: Sam Bradford #8 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up prior to a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on September 11, 2016 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

With the well-earned rise of the late-round quarterback strategy, many drafters avoid picking their passer until the middle rounds at the earliest. Oftentimes they select two mid-tier quarterbacks, which is less advisable in leagues with shallow benches. Roster spots typically are better used on high-upside running backs and pass-catchers.

(Keep up with all of QB Strength of Schedule week here.)

If the depth of your bench allows, however, it’s advantageous to draft quarterbacks whose schedules mesh. It prevents waiver-wire scrambling during bye weeks or when your starting quarterback faces the Broncos or Seahawks. In two-QB leagues, Superflex formats, or best-ball drafts, having quarterback schedule synergy is a small detail, but one that’s easily addressed.

Instead of simply double-checking potential backup quarterbacks’ bye weeks, keep the below list handy and rest assured that most – if not all – of your starter’s toughest opponents will be covered by his pairing’s more attractive matchups.

The heaviest focus for the elite quarterbacks’ pairings will be on their bye weeks and most prohibitive matchups, as we will still be starting Aaron Rodgers against difficult opponents. As we progress down the list – sorted by MFL10 ADP – the pairing suggestions will focus more on a streaming strategy, with no deference paid to a likely starter. Once we get toward the bottom, the options will be limited — but useful pairings for deep and two-QB leagues can be extracted.

Perfect pairings

Aaron Rodgers – Sam Bradford, Carson Wentz
Tom Brady – Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford
Andrew Luck – Blake Bortles, Joe Flacco
Drew Brees – Cam Newton, Carson Palmer
Russell Wilson – Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford
Jameis Winston – Blake Bortles, Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan – Dak Prescott, Joe Flacco
Cam Newton – Tyrod Taylor, Sam Bradford
Derek Carr – Andy Dalton, Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins – Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford
Marcus Mariota – Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton
Ben Roethlisberger – Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
Dak Prescott – Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford
Matthew Stafford – Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer
Philip Rivers – Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill
Andy Dalton – Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford
Eli Manning – Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco
Tyrod Taylor – Sam Bradford, Alex Smith
Carson Wentz – Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer
Blake Bortles – Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill
Carson Palmer – Sam Bradford, Mitchell Trubisky
Ryan Tannehill – Sam Bradford, Mitchell Trubisky
Joe Flacco – Sam Bradford, Browns quarterback
Sam Bradford – Skeleton Key (see below)
Alex Smith – Sam Bradford, Mitchell Trubisky
Deshaun Watson – Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown
Brian Hoyer – Jared Goff, Trevor Siemian
Jared Goff – Josh McCown, Good Luck

The perfect pair

Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor

Pair

(click to enlarge)

Newton and Taylor are both affordable and their schedules synch up nicely. Newton is barely going in the top 100 picks (QB8; early ninth round) just one year after being the first quarterback chosen and costing an early fourth-round pick. We have already touched on the Panthers schedule, and even if Newton takes a while to acclimate to Carolina’s new offense, he won’t be facing many juggernaut defenses. Newton would arguably be the top bargain at quarterback if it wasn’t for his pairing.

Taylor is one of the biggest steals in fantasy, regardless of position. He has finished ninth in per-game scoring among quarterbacks each of the last two seasons and is being picked in the middle of the 11th round as the 17th passer selected. A new coaching staff will have him throwing more often – he ranked 35th and 33rd in attempts per game the last two seasons – and Sammy Watkins returns to re-inflate Taylor’s deep-ball passer rating (second-highest in 2015).

The lone schedule hiccup the two have comes in Week 11, when Newton has a bye. Taylor will be in Los Angeles to take on a Chargers defense long on coverage talent and edge pass-rushing. He is used to running, if not for his life than for yards and touchdowns – which he led all quarterbacks in last season. In fact, both quarterbacks in this pairing augment passing production with their legs. This, along with their combined cost and synergistic schedule, makes them 2017’s perfect pair.

Past perfect pairs:
2015 – Cam Newton/Carson Palmer (bull’s-eye)
2016 – Tony Romo/Eli Manning (bulls#@%)

2017 skeleton key

Last season’s Skeleton Key wound up a broken skeleton, as Tony Romo didn’t survive the preseason. This year, another “injury prone” quarterback’s schedule meshes well with most other passers. Sam Bradford missed 2014 with an ACL tear in the same knee he blew out in 2013, plus he’s had assorted shoulder, brain, and ankle woes. However, he’s played more games over the last two seasons than any two-year stretch of his career, sidelined only twice with an injury.

Due to missing so many games and because he’s been cursed by leading awful teams, Bradford has played under the same offensive coordinator as the previous season only once – for seven games before tearing his knee in 2013. He set a career-high passer rating that season and didn’t top it until 2016, when he had three offensive coordinators spanning two teams after being traded to Minnesota days before the season started.

Despite little time to acclimate to the Vikings offense, Bradford set career-highs in completion percentage (71.6), adjusted yards per attempt (7.3), touchdown-to-interception ratio (4:1), and had a career-low interception percentage (0.9). He had the fifth-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays and the eighth-highest rate in PFF’s “big-time throw” metric. He led in adjusted completion percentage on deep passing attempts and overall. His deep-ball passer rating trailed only those of Matt Ryan and Tom Brady.

Bradford ranked first in accuracy percentage and second in passer rating when under pressure, and did it behind the league’s fourth-lowest-graded pass-blocking unit. The knock on him is he threw short (NFL-low 6.6-yard average depth of target), which was in large part due to a brutal offensive line. The Vikings upgraded in the offseason, and Bradford has an underrated array of pass-catching options to go along with an ultra-inviting schedule. He is the 24th quarterback chosen in MFL10s, and while he likely won’t win your league for you, Bradford will almost certainly pay off his cost and provide soft schedule landings when your starter has a bad matchup.

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