Fantasy football mock drafts: A 12-teamer before the draft

The calm before the storm…

We’re three weeks away from the NFL draft. Free agency has been in motion for a month so the onslaught of news has lessened to a crawl. Analysts have declared what each team needs in the draft. So now it’s time to wait…

Or mock draft with some of the brightest minds in the business!

All offseason, we’ll be running through a variety of mocks to keep fantasy players abreast of trends and strategies as we see them. First up is a 12-team PPR league.

Walton Spurlin, Pat Thorman, Mike Castiglione, Michael Moore, Jeff Ratcliffe, Jon Moore, Scott Barrett, Tyler Loechner, Chase Howell, Joey Cartolano, Daniel Kelley, and I all took part in this mock draft. In each of the tables I also included the player’s current ADP according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com

Round 1

The top four players are basically indisputable. The rest of the top 12 are interchangeable. No one wins or loses at this point in the draft.

Jon Moore pointed out during the draft that Winston targeted Mike Evans on 29 percent of his snaps in route last season, the highest rate of any wideout with 90-plus targets. He also believes that the arrival of DeSean Jackson and the emergence of Cameron Brate will spread out the defense and Evans will excel.

I will point out that Michael Thomas is the newest edition to the elite wide receiver club. With the departure of Brandin Cooks, Thomas solidified his role and Drew Brees’ No. 1 option. I say solidify, because if you were paying attention, he earned that role with or without Cooks on the field during his rookie season. Thomas led the team in targets (119), catches (92), and touchdowns (9), while Cooks’ 1,175 yards just edged out Thomas’ 1,137. Thomas is the guy.

Another addition to the elite running back club is Jordan Howard. Ezekiel Elliott led the league with 1,631 yards, but Howard was second with 1,313 yards even though he didn’t get the opportunity to be the starter until Week 4. Howard managed 5.2 yards per carry and an impressive 3.0 yards after contact. He will get volume while playing on the rebuilding Bears offense.

Rounds 2-3

At the top of the list you’ll see that LeSean McCoy was a steal dropping into the second round. He turns 29 years old in July, but last year he posted a career-high 5.4 yards per carry. It feels like he has one more elite year in the tank. That was my pick, so I’ll admit to you that I wasn’t thrilled with starting my draft with two running backs considering it is a PPR league, but the value was too strong to ignore.

The Todd Gurley pick at 3.08 was polarizing. The conversation bled over to email, where Jeff Ratcliffe pointed out that Gurley as the 31st pick is great value, even though the guy who drafted him, Scott Barrett, wrote “yuck” next to his pick in the draft room. I tend to agree with Ratcliffe on this one. While Barrett pointed out that he only has 100-yard game over the last 24 and a 3.4 yards-per-carry average over that timeframe, Ratcliffe and Tyler Loechner argued that he has the fifth-most attempts last season, even if the quality wasn’t necessarily there, and his offensive line should be improved. But the most convincing argument was “No more Jeff Fisher.”

You’ll also notice that Joey Cartolano valued Terrelle Pryor more than the ADP suggests. Pryor will be that kind of player in your drafts — the one that someone in your draft will take early because they believe in his talent, and perhaps are doubtful that Josh Docston will develop in his sophomore season to be the WR1 on a Washington team led by an accurate Kirk Cousins. A full offseason will help to clarify this situation, but for now, Cartolano is #TeamPryor

Rounds 4-6

Daniel Kelley let the draft room know that he would not normally draft Jordan Reed this high, but decided to try a different strategy for this mock. Reed was the second tight end taken off the board in this draft, even though both Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen have higher ADPs. Reed is a dynamic player, but perhaps Kelce and Olsen usually go before him due to their consistency. Olsen led the league with 122 targets last year, and Kelce was second in receptions (85). Which tight end had the most receptions in 2016? Dennis Pitta, a man hell-bent on proving that opportunities don’t always translate to fantasy production. Pitta is the exception, not the rule.

Please note that Adrian Peterson, the free agent, went at pick No. 65. This could be a value pick, or a disaster, but it’s a much more reasonable place to take him than at his No. 33 ADP. After making the pick, Tyler Loechnoer told the draft room, “OK. In the sixth round, I’m fine with this.” I wrote about how Peterson is a potential bust and unlikely to bounce back this season. I’m not going to go off the rails here and do another expose on this player, but do know that you absolutely do not need to draft Peterson in the second or third round to get him if you really want him. Please wait.

You’ll also notice that the big-three rookies that will enter the league this year in the draft went off the board starting in the fifth round. This is a PPR league, so the dynamic pass-catcher Christian McCaffrey went off the board first. Then Dalvin Cook and then Leonard Fournette. Personally, I do not draft rookies until double-digit rounds prior to knowing their team and/or role. So much of a player’s productivity is based on role, so it’s incredibly difficult to guarantee a return on a fifth-round investment. Even if you are playing in dynasty formats, encourage your commissioner to have the draft and/or determine keepers after the official NFL draft.

Rounds 7-9

It’s clear that our analysts are higher on some players than the public, and way lower. It’s in these next few rounds that you can see trends and sleepers emerge.

First, Cameron Meredith is either the WR1 or WR2 for the Bears. Yes, Kevin White has all the potential in the world, but in two years White has only played in four games, caught 19 passes for 187 yards and no touchdowns. Meanwhile, Meredith entered the league at the same time as White and came out of nowhere and became the Bears’ No. 1 wide out by the end of the season. Sure, White could take a big step forward and become the player that the Chicago front office thought he would be, but that would still make Meredith an incredibly good WR2. His ADP will climb as the offseason progresses, but for now, get him at a steal.

Although on paper it looks like a reach, Scott Barrett’s Adam Thielen pick at 9.07 was right in line with how the Vikings value this undrafted free agent who they just signed to a $19 million contract over the offseason. Thielen, like Meredith, is an ADP mystery.

Latavius Murray and Thomas Rawls both went quite a bit lower in this draft than their ADPs would suggest. Murray came to the Vikings from the Raiders, and the Vikings offensive line ranked 29th last season. Murray played behind the Raiders’ offensive line that ranked fourth in the league, and only averaged 4.0 yards per carry. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which his fantasy value doesn’t take a hit. And one would have to assume that the current ADP hasn’t taken into consideration that the Seahawks signed Eddie Lacy.

Also note that the top two wide receivers who will enter the league in the draft later this month both went at the eighth and ninth round turn. Corey Davis and Mike Williams could both have fantasy relevance, so keep an eye on them moving forward.

Rounds 10-12

LeGarrette Blount still doesn’t have a team, so even though his ADP is high, he went off the board at the beginning of the double-digit rounds. Same can be said for Jamaal Charles, a very interesting 12th-round pick.

Walton Spurlin went back-to-back tight ends with Martellus Bennett and Eric Ebron. He noted that Aaron Rodgers will love having a big TE that can catch the ball, and that Ebron put up career highs last season in targets, receptions and yards. Both options come with risk, but he’s banking on one of them working out and he liked knocking out that position with one big turn.

Jeff Ratcliffe took Dak Prescott the pick after Jon Moore took Jameis Winston in the 10th round. I found this intriguing because both of those players offer tremendous upside while being undisputed starters at their position. You can get them both in the double-digit rounds, and I’m sure that they will rotate as to who will have a higher rank based on who’s list you’re referencing. They are practically interchangeable and it’s a very good strategy to go with them late and to grab talent at the other positions early.

Even more intriguing is that Pat Thorman took Kirk Cousins a round later. Surely, the instability within the Washington clubhouse attributes to Cousins’ declining fantasy ADP, but it’s also a weapons concern. The team lost both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, and picked up Terrelle Pryor and Brian Quick.

Rounds 13-16

It may only be April, but it’s never too early for a friendly reminder to read your league settings. Yes, I was one of the people who didn’t do that and didn’t realize we were doing a mock that contained a defense and kicker. That is unacceptable, but if you can’t learn from my mistakes prior to the draft, then what’s the point of it all?

Tyler Loechner’s Paul Richardson pick is the perfect example of what you should do toward the end of the draft. Richardson had a bit of a hot streak at the end of last season and caught seven passes for 131 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. When you’re this late in the draft, go with upside, someone you think could be a big-time contributor. He may not. So what? Even if this was a real draft, you would just drop him at little cost to you and your fantasy team.

It’s shocking to me that Charles Sims dropped to the 14th round in a PPR league. Sims has surgery due to a pectoral injury and his 2016 season was cut short with only 51 carries for 149 yards and one touchdown. However, he also caught 24 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown. In 2015, Sims was one of PFF’s highest-graded running backs and averaged 3.2 catches and 35.1 receiving yards per game. He’s not going to be an every-week starter, but he’s certainly someone you should consider for the flex in a PPR league.

Things change. The NFL draft at the end of the month is going to disrupt a lot of roles. But right now, this is a good assessment of where the fantasy talent resides and who you should target early on.