Fantasy Buyer Beware: Guys currently being drafted at or above their likely ceiling

You want to get guys who can outperform their draft position, and Mike Tagliere says these guys are going to struggle to do that.

| 10 months ago
(Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

(Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Fantasy Buyer Beware: Guys currently being drafted at or above their likely ceiling

Now that we’ve finally gotten to the point where ADP has settled down and we know where players are being taken, we’re able to properly assess which players are values, as well as which players are being drafted near their ceiling.

Today, we’ll be focusing on the players that should be on your “Buyer Beware” list, simply because it’s unlikely that they outperform their current ADP. Whether it be a change in scenery for a player, change in coach, or change in talent around them, these players are improperly valued, or at the least, they’re being drafted at their ceiling. Fortunately for you, I’m able to tell you who they are.

Julian Edelman WR, Patriots (ADP 4.05)

When the recent news broke about Edelman suffering a setback with his foot injury, the first emotion that went through my head was disappointment, as I had really enjoyed owners spending a fourth-round pick on him. As it turned out, it was nothing and Edelman has resumed practicing since then.

The problem with drafting Edelman at 4.05 is that you’re drafting him at his ceiling. Not only has he failed to ever eclipse 1,056 receiving yards, but he also has had limited touchdown numbers, despite having Tom Brady as his quarterback. The highest a wide receiver with 1,056 or fewer yards finished last year was Eric Decker, at No. 11. It took him 12 touchdowns to get to that spot, which is much higher than Edelman’s career high of seven.

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    In regards to Edelman, I have him grouped in a tier of WRs along with Baldwin, Moncrief and Tate. Do you like those 3 over Edelman in terms of upside, or do you think their ceilings are similar?