Week 6 fantasy trade targets and ideas: Who to deal, who to deal for

These guys are due for a shift in value, says Dan Schneier. For some, it might not come right away, but all are candidates for trades.

| 9 months ago
(Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

(Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Week 6 fantasy trade targets and ideas: Who to deal, who to deal for

As always in the weekly trade-idea column, we’ll kick things off by looking at last week’s advice. If you bought low on Martellus Bennett. you were rewarded with an even better game than you might have thought possible. With Tom Brady back, Bennett will have a high ceiling but also a low floor — the Patriots have a lot of weapons to go around. It might not be the worst idea to try and sell high on him (if you have owners in your league who jump the gun based on prior stats). We also hit on the Brandon Marshall buy-low proposition, while Brandin Cooks was on bye and will have his chance to break loose in Week 6.

We looked to sell low on LeGarrette Blount and we saw his snap count significantly drop with Brady back in the lineup as expected. He scored a touchdown, but that was the extent of his production. We also advised to sell on Spencer Ware — there’s still a few more days until Jamaal Charles reclaims the lead role. As for Melvin Gordon, our last sell high, he scored again — this gives you another opportunity to sell. Remember — touchdowns tend to regress. Don’t chase them.


Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The window is closing to buy in on 2015’s breakout receiver. Robinson hasn’t been a bust, but he hasn’t been that every-week WR1 his owners were probably expecting when they used a first- or early second-round pick on him. Robinson hasn’t topped 100 yards yet this season after racking up six 100-yard games in 2015, but the peripherals are all there for Robinson to turn things around.

He’s still seeing the bulk of targets from Blake Bortles. Robinson currently has double-digit targets in three of his four games played. He has the 19th-most targets in the NFL despite playing one fewer game than every other wide receiver ahead of him on that list except for Jordy Nelson. There’s no denying that Bortles is leaning on Robinson — he has 14 more targets than teammate Allen Hurns (who has just 24) and the Jaguars haven’t heavily involved their running backs and tight ends.

The Jaguars’ scheme is vertical in nature. They want to get the ball downfield. Robinson is their guy in these situations, and we could start seeing the big plays start to hit again as soon as Week 6. Robinson has matched up with cornerbacks like Sam Shields and Jason Verrett in the early going. The schedule is about to turn though — Robinson’s next three matchups come against a beat-up Bears defense, a Raiders pass defense that has allowed at least 22 points to every quarterback not named Marcus Mariota (h/t Mike Tagliere), and a Titans defense that can’t consistently get to Bortles. This all adds up for a breakout game or two on the horizon for Robinson. Buy now before it’s too late.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

At this point, you’re likely to find your league’s Charles owner still a bit pensive about his situation going forward. That’s what we’re banking on. The objective of this call is not to have you go out and dump an elite performer for Charles — don’t do that. We are looking for ways to exploit the current lack of information on Charles, and as a result, we are hoping to capitalize on an owner who can’t afford to (or doesn’t want to) wait any longer.

There are owners out there who still expect Spencer Ware to work with Charles in a near-even timeshare going forward. That’s the rhetoric on the most recent Charles blurb on Rotoworld and it’s also the groupthink on Twitter. Sure, Ware has flashed in some games and looked solid in others, but Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has no history of using a timeshare — at least not when he’s had a running back like Charles, or LeSean McCoy, or Brian Westbrook.

As PFF Fantasy’s Scott Barrett pointed out earlier this offseason, since 2007, Andy Reid’s RB1 (in games they played) has averaged 78 percent of the team’s running back snaps, 77 percent of the team’s running back carries, and 81 percent of the team’s running back targets.

Now that we’ve got the strategic approach to the trade down, let’s talk about why we have confidence in Charles. We’ll start by saying he wouldn’t be the first football player to return fine from a torn ACL. This isn’t even the first time he’s attempting to come back to form after an ACL injury. After tearing his ACL in 2011, Charles came back with 1,509 yards rushing and 5.3 yards per carry. Remember, we’re talking about a running back who has averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry throughout his entire career — one that has spanned eight seasons.

A perfect example of putting this into action would be using Michael Crabtree or Tevin Coleman at the base of a deal to acquire Charles. But don’t include someone like Lamar Miller. The key, as always, is to sell high and buy low.

John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

One of the keys to predicting Brown’s breakout is looking at the Cardinals’ wide receiver usage around him. Something is not right with Michael Floyd, who has graded out among our worst wide receivers overall this season, and the Cardinals have been phasing him out of the offense. Floyd has played just 58-of-149 snaps over the past two weeks. If you own him, make sure he’s on your bench and don’t be afraid to drop him in 10-team leagues. Back to the point — Brown is emerging as the Cardinals’ No. 1 receiver on the outside. Sure, Larry Fitzgerald will have the top role underneath as the Cardinals’ slot receiver, but Brown is quarterback Carson Palmer’s go-to target over the top and on the intermediate passes that have defined Bruce Arians’ offense.

Brown is one of the best route-runners in the NFL and no one seems to realize it just yet. Injuries and a crowded wide receiver corps have held him back from emerging as a consistent fantasy option, but we’re banking on that changing. We saw a glimpse of Brown’s potential in Week 4 when he racked up 144 yards receiving and 10 receptions on a whopping 16 targets. Then Palmer got concussed and Brown fell back into obscurity with four targets and one reception in Week 5.

Brown needs Palmer back at quarterback and he should get that in Week 6, as Palmer has been cleared from the concussion protocol. Now the two players can get back on track and right where they left off in Week 4. Big weeks are coming for Brown.


Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins

I haven’t been shy about my feelings about Jones’ talent — Six months ago I wrote about why he was the top player to sell in dynasty leagues. Aside from one strong game against a beaten-up Browns defense, there hasn’t been much to like about Jones’ production in 2016. He has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry in three of his five games this season and he hasn’t had more than two receptions in any game. Aside from the Browns game, Jones has a season high of just 65 rushing yards.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to us. Jones was atrocious as a rookie. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, he had just three runs of 15-plus yards on a whopping 144 carries, and he had three drops on just 22 targets.

Chris Thompson is already responsible for all of the Redskins’ passing-down and hurry-up work. Now, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has talked about getting rookie Rob Kelley more involved in the offense.

Three of Washington’s next five games come against the Eagles’, Vikings’ and Packers’ run defenses. Even if Jones still has the lead role by then, he’s not likely to find much running room against three of our top run defenses. He’s even less likely to find the end zone. Jones is simply a declining asset and one you should be looking to get rid of.

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

A major component to the Anderson appeal was his workload. After the first two weeks, it looked certain he was entrenched as a true workhorse fantasy back. Anderson has 47 total touches through his first two games with 232 total yards and three touchdowns. In his three games since, Anderson has just 155 total yards with one touchdown. And this isn’t even the most concerning development for Anderson’s stock, as rookie Devontae Booker has been emerging as well.

Our CFF draft analysts compared Booker to Arian Foster for his smooth running style. They also named him one of only a few backs who could potentially operate in a lead back role and make the NFL transition right away. Gary Kubiak found Foster, and Booker could eventually be his next find. Anderson owners don’t need to worry about that quite yet, but Booker cutting into Anderson’s workload is a real fear.

In Week 5, Booker totaled just three fewer yards than Anderson and four fewer touches. He also played throughout the course of the game and not just once the Broncos had fallen behind. Most importantly, Booker played just seven fewer snaps than Anderson.

If you can still find an owner who slaps the true RB1 tag on Anderson, get a deal done and move on.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders

Disclaimer: Do not read this as “trade Crabtree at all costs because he will have a bad week immediately.” A couple columns ago, I wrote about dealing Matt Ryan. Then he went on to break out before coming back down to earth in Week 5. I ate my crow for that, and rightfully so, but looking at the very next week’s box score is missing the point on Ryan, and the same applies for Crabtree.

We’re looking long-term here and we’re trying to capitalize on value. Like Ryan, Crabtree is performing beyond expectations and both players should regress based on their upcoming schedules among other factors. Let’s start with the coming regression for Crabtree. He scored three touchdowns in one game and is now the WR8 in fantasy (half-point PPR). He also has topped 100 yards receiving in just one game. Touchdowns are more likely to regress than yards and he doesn’t have the big chunk yardage plays to make up for it.

There are owners in your league who likely view Crabtree as a WR1 based on his production so far. With matchups against the Broncos and Chiefs in two of his next four games, now is the time to capitalize on Crabtree’s assumed value.

Dan Schneier is a staff writer for PFF Fantasy, a former FOX Sports NFL scribe, and an auction format enthusiast.

  • Tyler Gilbert

    Would you trade Jordy and Ingram for Evans and Gordon in standard scoring?

    • Random Dude

      Yes, Evans and Gordon keep finding the endzone. Brees usually passes in the endzone and Rodgers spreads it around so Jordy may get one every now and then.

      • Shoutout to all the guest

        rodgers’ clear #1 target has been jordy since week 1, no ball spreading

        • Jeff

          Umm, random dude couldn’t be more wrong. Jordy Nelson has at least 1 touchdown each week and is getting 10+ targets a week.(even more benificial in PPR lgs) you will have a lot of consistency with Ingram and Jordy. Consider Ingram on average worth 15-20 points(PPR) and Jordy Nelson 15-20 points (PPR) Evans is an Elite receiver and does have an easier schedule on the books after the bye this week. Melvin Gordon has done well but also has had a very easy schedule vs RB. NOTE1: Doug Martin (RB)is set to return soon after the bye week which may take away some of Evans fantasy production. NOTE2:Melvin Gordon has a “tougher” schedule ahead of him after week 8.NOTE4: Now with Hunter Henry taking off in the tight end spot putting up Huge numbers and the return of Antonio gates, expect a big increase in the passing game which could also hurt Melvin Gordon’s value. Hunter Henry accounted for a majority of the production and against a tough defense against TE. (Vs Denver) at the end of the day. Going back to Evans it will be interesting to see if his production continues between Jameis winstons inconsistency at quarterback and more depth available to their run game. Evans is still a top receiver that can’t be ignored with almost 1TD every week (already more this year than last year combined) The trade would seem to be in your favor at this point. Evans is the hot hand with an easy upcoming schedule as long as Jameis can avoid injury and maybe gain more consistency. Melvin Gordon in my opinion is someone that will probably drop off soon like he did this week against Denver. Remember however You know you have consistency with Jordy and With Ingram, especially in the red zone. Evans is doing great now but with Jameis being Flaky and coaches being concerned it’s worth noting that Jameis pass production numbers are dropping which in term will affect Evans. Especially with Doug Martin coming back to steal some of the snaps. Melvin Gordon will face a similar problem as well with the breakout performance from TE hunter Henry and the return of Antonio Gates. Drew Bree’s has always been a high volume qb and with Ingrams consistent 15-20 pts the volume presents itself for a chance at a huge game (More red zone opportunities). Aaron Rodgers loves to target Jordy as he has one td every week this season and can definitely be expected to have some bigger games ahead. I personally would stick with Ingram and Jordy. You have consistency there all the way around. If your a gambling man then take Evans and Gordon, it might pay off but you could also bust. If you want to gamble do your research and play the waiver wire. This way you will have your consistent players you know are good for 90% of the time and you can pick up disposable players. Eventually you are bound to run into a stud worth keeping,(Jordan Howard Christine Michaels etc or end up with a good backup like deangelo Williams if leveon gets hurt, Spencer ware for jamaal Charles, tevin Coleman is good now but if Devonta gets hurt he will be elite. Sleepers this week like Tyler Lockett or John Brown. All proven Athletes that are probably available. Just plug them in the right time and you will do good. Do your research As thoroughly as you can though because the Media can definitely sway you to make a wrong choice. Remember people gamble all the time on fanduel and DraftKings so why wouldn’t they.

          • Shoutout to all the guest

            mother of god what a response

    • goose

      seems like mostly a wash–slight edge to the jordy/ingram side. I’d stand pat.

      • Shoutout to all the guest

        slight edge to jordy and ingram? how? evans remains the top targeted wr in the nfl and gordon is among the league’s top scorers this season

    • Shoutout to all the guest

      buddy, if you have a chance to execute this trade do it asap

  • Kieran Hay

    Im getting offered charles, kelce for olsen, is it worth taking? Hard for me to let go as hes had 3, 15+ point games

  • goose

    Totally disagree on both Ryan and Crabtree. Crabtree was excellent last year, graded very highly in PFF’s WR’s grades, in a great offense with a really good young QB, and he’s also kind of a end zone specialist–definitely better than Cooper in terms of red zone passing situations. Don’t feel as passionate about Ryan but I mean he’s been great before and he has arguably the best WR in the world to throw to, as well as a tremendous run game to take the pressure off of him. Players exceeding expectations doesn’t necessarily imply regression. A lot of people were wrong in their expectations of these players, that’s all.

  • Johnny

    How would you buy low for someone who’s value is low?(John Brown)

  • Alex B

    Trade Jordan Howard for Jamaal Charles? Charles has a significantly easier schedule going forward, but Howard has looked great in both of his starts while Charles is sort of an unknown coming off of injury.

  • falconsriseup

    Does Allen Robinson’s playoff schedule concern you at all? I was going to target him in a trade, but when I looked at his playoff schedule, he seems borderline unstartable for 4 weeks. (Denver, Minnesota, Houston, Tennessee, all top 10 against WRs)

    • Rubén

      Exactly that is why I would sell him… also Randall Cobb.

  • Geisy

    I have a guy offering me fuller and Anderson for gronk and Stewart…any thoughts?

    • Todd Dobbins

      Ya, don’t do it.

  • Anthony

    I own Gurley, Miler, and Lacy as my backs with Sanders, Cooper, Alshon, and Baldwin as my WRs. I d like to package a deal for Ingram and Hopkins from a team that is 0-5 and needs depth. Would you suggest selling Gurley now with Alshon and maybe toss is Arian Foster (who i also own) with it to sure it up? Or stand pat and roll with my team at 3-2.

  • Tyler Gilbert

    Should I offer Julio, R Mathews, and Deangelo to the Bell owner for Marvin Jones and David Johnson? I have Ingram, Hill, Dixon, Washington (det), Evans, Enunwa, and Meredith. He’s got Crowell and Sproles and his wrs are Baldwin and Dorsett