Don't overlook shorter wide receivers in fantasy

Size may still matter for some things in life, but that’s hardly the case when it comes to fantasy wide receivers in the present-day NFL. Simply put, fantasy production at the receiver position has become an equal opportunity premise for short and tall receivers alike.

Myriad factors have contributed to the current offensive landscape: passing statistics continue to climb league-wide each year, more and more spread concepts and no-huddle tactics have infiltrated the pro game, and the overall talent at the quarterback position is as deep as it has been in recent memory.

When it comes to the size and relative fantasy production of receivers, you likely have observed that an increasing number of shorter receivers – let’s set the mark at less than six feet tall – have become reliable weekly starters in your fantasy lineups. Last offseason, my colleague Michael Moore debunked the theory that taller receivers are more productive fantasy assets. I want to take it a step further and illustrate the one factor that trumps all else when it comes to this recent trend.

For starters, just look at the top of the wide-receiver rankings this season. The general-consensus top two, or two of the top three (Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr.) are under 6'0 (5'10 and 5'11, respectively). Something like half of the top 30 in rankings have heights that start with “5,” from Brandin Cooks to Doug Baldwin to John Brown to Julian Edelman.  The thing is, I'd argue that even there, a lot of these guys are underrated.

Prior to the 2014 season, the NFL announced that officials were going to make illegal contact and defensive holding a point of emphasis. Call it the Legion of Boom Rule. Call it The Rule That Ruined Football. Call it whatever you prefer. The fact is, the NFL has kept its promise with the enforcement of contact rules, and no position group has benefitted more than receivers – specifically, short ones.

That much became obvious during the 2014 preseason, when illegal contact penalties increased 450 percent and defensive holding penalties were up 350 percent from the previous preseason. Coaches, players and fans alike were up in arms about the subsequent impact on gameplay. Many assumed hoped the whole thing would blow over once the real games started and that teams wouldn’t have to adjust, after all.

That assumption turned out to be quite false. As the table above illustrates, there has been a clear uptick in defensive holding calls since the re-emphasis on contact rules. In the last two seasons, defensive holding calls are up 60 percent over the previous four-year average. And while illegal contact penalties saw a dramatic spike in 2014, that number fell back in line in 2015. Still, the 59 illegal contact penalties – many of which could be deemed incidental contact that did not impede the progress of the receiver or affect the play – represent a nearly 60-percent increase from the 2013 season, when the league determined that a change had to be made.

In terms of fantasy impact, it stands to reason that more of these kinds of penalties leads to more sustained drives, which leads to more fantasy scoring opportunities. Wanting to test this theory and how it relates to shorter receivers, I pulled the top-30 PPR fantasy receivers each year going back to 2010 (minimum 25-percent snap count). For some historical context prior to the PFF era, I went a bit further and also included data from 10 and 15 years ago.

% = percentage of short WRs (under 6-0) that comprise each subset
* = fantasy data from Pro-Football-Reference.com

A clear trend has emerged, and what’s particularly notable is how the short receivers have stacked up among the elite (top-15) since the re-emphasis of the contact rules. These aren’t your flex-play dart throws we’re talking about here. These are bona fide weekly starters, even studs. Let’s take a look at the names along with a couple of PFF’s signature metrics: yards per route run, and WR rating (QB rating when a receiver is targeted).

Last season saw more fantasy production from shorter receivers, but also more variance in the corresponding YPRR and WR Rating metrics. In other words, there was a higher number of starting-caliber fantasy receivers despite not always being particularly efficient with their opportunities (think Andrew Luck repeatedly misfiring to T.Y. Hilton, who posted a career-worst 55.2-percent catch rate yet saw enough volume to be a fantasy factor). For a receiver of Hilton’s stature, that sort of trend was less common under the officiating of yesteryear. But with more freedom for receivers to operate in and out of routes, quarterbacks are taking more shots. Often times, the reward has been a flag that keeps a drive alive and presents additional scoring opportunities.

All of this is to say: don’t overlook the short dudes in your fantasy drafts this summer. Perusing the early ADP consensus rankings over at FantasyPros, give me Golden Tate (WR25) over Eric Decker (WR26), John Brown (WR30) over Jordan Matthews (WR29), or DeSean Jackson (WR33) over DeVante Parker (WR32).

In fantasy these days, the height column just doesn't carry the weight it used to. Julian Edelman is the Patriots' No. 1 receiver, with Danny Amendola, Nate Washington and Chris Hogan likely to be the other key guys this season. Washington and Hogan are 6'1, the tallest of the group. Edelman is 5'10, and Amendola is 5'11. Seattle's duo of Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are both 5'10. Tavon Austin, who had 400-plus yards receiving and rushing for the Rams a year ago, is 5'8.

In short, these guys don't have to be tall. Don't overlook them.