David Johnson is set to dominate the Divisional Round

Kevin Cole takes a deeper look at target and rushing attempt share trends to find players on an upswing leading into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

| 11 months ago
(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

David Johnson is set to dominate the Divisional Round


We’ve provided you weekly market share reports for targets and rushing attempts this season. With only the four Divisional Round games this weekend, this column will take a closer look at each of the eight teams’ season-long and recent usage trends.

For teams coming off of a bye, “Last2” includes weeks 16 and 17. For teams advancing from the wild card round, “Last2” includes week 17 and the Wild Card game.

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  • jb0575

    I apologize for the long-winded James Jones rant, but I feel pretty strongly that he has everything (besides the ability to actually get open) working in his favor as the second-strongest DFS play of the week (after D. Johnson), and I think everyone should use him!

    -44 Aaron Rodgers targets over the last four games, w/ at least 9 in each contest. Yes, an arbitrary endpoint, but he also had 27 targets over the previous 4 games, giving him 8.9 per game over GB’s last eight contests. Cobb has averaged 7.4 during the same time.

    -If PP shadows Cobb, which seems likely (but not necessarily smart), Jones will mostly square off with Bethel, who is a middling cornerback at best. Granted, that arguably makes it an even matchup, as Jones himself isn’t anything special.

    -The Arizona defense is slipping a bit w/out Mathieu, and losing Okafor only hurts more, especially for a unit that relies on its stars (PP, Mathieu and Campbell) to cover up for a lot of mediocre players (and shaky depth) in the front seven. They rank 3rd in DEF DVOA, but 7th in weighted DEF DVOA…already slipping a bit it seems. Yet, the public still views the AZ defense as being on par w/ KC and CAR; some might would even put them up there w/ DEN and SEA. This means Rodgers, Jones, Starks and Abbrederis will all be underowned (I still wouldn’t touch Lacy or Cobb).

    -The Packers finally have a healthy offensive line.

    -Jones hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last 3 games, which has kept his usage explosion somewhat under the radar to the average fan. Again, this means he’ll be far lower owned than he should be. And oh yeah, he’s scored on a ridiculous 11.8 percent of his career catches, and would still at an awesome 10 percent if you throw out the oddball 14-td season.