In my previous post here at PFF Fantasy, I projected quarterback passing yards using a regression of yards-per-attempt. Checking in at eighth on that list was Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, up one spot from his ninth place rank in 2011.
Despite projecting Roethlisberger to throw for just 23 more yards in 2012, I think he’s one of the draft’s best values at quarterback. Look, I get that there are questions about wide receiver Mike Wallace's status and Big Ben’s upside isn’t that of Michael Vick, but there is value to be had with the Steelers’ quarterback. Here’s why. . .
- Mike Wallace will be back.
Don’t worry about Wallace. He has little leverage and he’s not going to pass up a couple million bucks this season. Plus, I actually projected Wallace to lead the league in receiving yards this season. His 16.6 yards-per-receptions from 2011 was over two yards under his career mark. He doesn’t need to haul in many more than 70 passes to lead the NFL in yards, and his breakaway speed can provide his quarterback with “cheap” fantasy points.
- The Steelers don’t have much of a running game.
Some people view this as a negative. I don’t. While Roethlisberger’s efficiency could be compromised without an effective rushing attack, fantasy owners win championships with bulk stats. It doesn’t matter if Roethlisberger’s passer rating is only 85.0 if he throws 550 passes.
- Roethlisberger will break his career-high for passing attempts.
I projected Roethlisberger to throw 500 passes in 2012, but that’s really an underestimation. In the past three seasons, Roethlisberger has missed six total games. If he were healthy each season, Big Ben would have averaged 535 attempts per year. If the Steelers struggle on the ground as many anticipate, it isn’t irrational to think Roethlisberger could reach the 550 mark. It all comes down to health.
If Roethlisberger gets the attempts I anticipate, he’ll break his career-high for passing yards in a season. Roethlisberger averaged only 7.9 yards-per-attempt in 2011, down from 8.2 and 8.6 the previous two seasons. That number will be up this year, but even if it remains exactly the same, Roethlisberger would throw for 4,345 yards with 550 attempts.
- He’ll score more touchdowns.
The Steelers might not reach the red zone as often as they did last year, but they also might not have much of a short-yardage ground attack. Roethlisberger could see extra attempts inside the five-yard line, inflating his 21 passing touchdowns from 2011.
Plus, don’t forget Roethlisberger will likely rush for a couple of touchdowns. He didn’t reach the end zone on the ground at all last season, but he scored two or more rushing touchdowns in the six seasons prior to that.
- It all comes down to ADP.
Ultimately, the reason Roethlisberger is a steal in 2012 is his average draft position. Take a look at the graph below, courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.
Roethlisberger is getting selected almost three rounds later than Tony Romo. I projected Roethlisberger to throw for only eight fewer yards than the Dallas Cowboys quarterback, however, and Roethlisberger is more of a threat on the ground as well.
In the end, Roethlisberger has a lot of ways in which he can improve. He’s set to throw more passes, increase his efficiency, and generate more touchdowns than in 2011. If just one of those aspects of his game improves, Big Ben could be a surprise top-five quarterback in 2012.
Jonathan Bales is the founder of TheDCTimes.com and writes for the New York Times and Dallas Cowboys. He’s the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft.
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