13 players whose MFL10 ADPs don’t reflect their value

It's easy to bet against guys falling off from big years, but as Scott Barrett says, sometimes we go too far.

| 1 year ago
(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

13 players whose MFL10 ADPs don’t reflect their value

There’s no denying it. I got really lucky in MFL10s last season. If you’re not familiar with the format, MFL10s are best-ball leagues hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com. Last year, I participated in more than 125 leagues and profited handsomely, largely due to drafting Doug Baldwin on a lot of my teams. Really, I feel like I should have set aside some of my winnings and mailed the man a gift basket, but it’s too late; I already blew all of that money on MFL10s for this season.

It’s not that I even had the slightest suspicion Baldwin would finish as the overall No. 11 fantasy wide receiver after finishing as the overall No. 43 WR the year prior. Not at all. But at the time (he had an MFL10 ADP of WR63 last year in June), I knew it’d be hard not to profit off of that based on his prior season’s numbers.
Indeed, something as simple as comparing a player’s position ADP to his prior season’s positional fantasy finish can be a good measure of identifying undervalued players.
So that’s what I’m doing here. I’m looking at guys whose role remains unchanged but who have an ADP far below their positional fantasy finish in 2015.
Notes: The numbers in parentheses are a player’s 2016 ADP vs. their 2015 positional PPR fantasy finish. Even if you’re not a fan of best-ball fantasy leagues, MFL10 ADP is considered to be much sharper than other sites offering ADP at this time.

Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens (WR61 vs. WR27)

Aiken benefited from injuries to Breshad Perriman and Steve Smith Sr. last season. Still, he was excellent despite being forced to catch passes from Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schaub and Ryan Mallett for chunks of the season. Aiken may now face greater competition in targets, but also maybe not. Smith is 37 years old and attempting a comeback from an Achilles tendon tear. Perriman has never played an NFL snap and is now dealing with another knee injury. Mike Wallace was our third-worst-graded wide receiver last season (out of 119 qualifying), and like Perriman, has not had the chance to establish chemistry with quarterback Joe Flacco. According to one beat writer even before Perriman’s most recent injury, Aiken is projected as the starting slot receiver. He was our No. 15-graded wide receiver last season and ranked 20th in fantasy points per snap. Over the final eight games of the season, he ranked 11th in yards and 14th in total fantasy points.

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Scott Barrett is our Senior Fantasy Analyst and one of the main hosts of our Fantasy Slant podcast.

  • Chad

    This is good stuff you are talking me into considering guys I am not that high on.

    • Scott Barrett

      Thanks Chad. Believe me, writing this had the same effect on me.

  • James Murphy

    Finally Stevie getting some love. If he’s healthy I think he’s still a nice option in that pass heavy offense.

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