Similar to my most recent piece, identifying potentially undervalued players can be as simple as looking at year over year ADP. Fantasy drafters and the big-name experts who drive ADP are sharp, but sometimes, we’re too early on a player. For instance, in 2014, I had Brandon Marshall everywhere. Then, in 2015, I bought into the narrative that he was old and injury-prone and completely shied away from drafting him. This hurt a few of my fantasy teams; he finished as the No. 3 wide receiver in PPR leagues. Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman were other examples of guys who disappointed based on our 2014 expectations, but exceeded them in 2015. This happens all of the time. It’s not that we’re completely wrong on a guy – maybe we’re just a year too early.
That’s what I’ve sought out to do here. In this article I will be comparing 2015 June MFL10 ADP (which is considered much sharper than other sites at this time) to 2016 June MFL10 ADP in an effort to find players we were maybe just a year too early on last year – whether due to injury, an atypically down year, or otherwise.
Notes: All references to fantasy points will be in PPR. The number in parentheses is the difference in ADP between 2015 and 2016. For instance, in 2015 Jimmy Graham was drafted on average 32nd overall, but this season he’s going 113th – an 81-spot drop.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks (-81)
New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz sat out all of 2015 after suffering a torn patellar tendon in Week 6 of 2014. So fantasy owners are cautious of Graham’s prospects for 2016 after he suffered the same injury in Week 12. To make matters worse, even when he was on the field for the Seahawks, Graham was not his typical spectacular self, ranking just 12th among tight ends in fantasy points per game across 11 games. To make matters worse (again), the team was far better without him, averaging 11 more points per game in weeks he did not appear. Still, if Graham can come back healthy, we may be getting a terrific bargain on a guy who finished among the top two highest-scoring fantasy tight ends on a PPG basis in each of his four seasons prior.
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