10 players whose ADPs have fallen precipitously after 2015

A single subpar season can cause a wild swing in the general fantasy consensus, and sometimes, as Scott Barrett notes, it shouldn't.

| 12 months ago
(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

(AP Photo/John Froschauer)

10 players whose ADPs have fallen precipitously after 2015

Similar to my most recent piece, identifying potentially undervalued players can be as simple as looking at year over year ADP. Fantasy drafters and the big-name experts who drive ADP are sharp, but sometimes, we’re too early on a player. For instance, in 2014, I had Brandon Marshall everywhere. Then, in 2015, I bought into the narrative that he was old and injury-prone and completely shied away from drafting him. This hurt a few of my fantasy teams; he finished as the No. 3 wide receiver in PPR leagues. Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman were other examples of guys who disappointed based on our 2014 expectations, but exceeded them in 2015. This happens all of the time. It’s not that we’re completely wrong on a guy – maybe we’re just a year too early.

That’s what I’ve sought out to do here. In this article I will be comparing 2015 June MFL10 ADP (which is considered much sharper than other sites at this time) to 2016 June MFL10 ADP in an effort to find players we were maybe just a year too early on last year – whether due to injury, an atypically down year, or otherwise.

Notes: All references to fantasy points will be in PPR. The number in parentheses is the difference in ADP between 2015 and 2016. For instance, in 2015 Jimmy Graham was drafted on average 32nd overall, but this season he’s going 113th – an 81-spot drop.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks (-81)

New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz sat out all of 2015 after suffering a torn patellar tendon in Week 6 of 2014. So fantasy owners are cautious of Graham’s prospects for 2016 after he suffered the same injury in Week 12. To make matters worse, even when he was on the field for the Seahawks, Graham was not his typical spectacular self, ranking just 12th among tight ends in fantasy points per game across 11 games. To make matters worse (again), the team was far better without him, averaging 11 more points per game in weeks he did not appear. Still, if Graham can come back healthy, we may be getting a terrific bargain on a guy who finished among the top two highest-scoring fantasy tight ends on a PPG basis in each of his four seasons prior.

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Scott Barrett is our Senior Fantasy Analyst and one of the main hosts of our Fantasy Slant podcast.

  • Jack

    Rodgers in the mid second round would be a decent pick up. If Jordy Nelson is back healthy then Rodgers should look like his 2014 self again. Nobody else on this list is worth talking about too much, maybe Vincent Jackson.

  • Danimal

    Great list but to not mention Devontae Booker (4th round pick) is irresponsible when talking about CJ Anderson. The broncos have shown a propensity to run 2 backs even if the second one is terrible, looking at you Ronnie Hillman. Its resonable to assume Booker outperforms Hillman and takes all of his work and then some, especially in the recieving game. While I believe Anderson has a bounce back year I think his outlook is more Jeremy Hill esque, with a workhorse roll a distant dream. Anderson’s ADP is mid-3rd while Hill’s is early-6th, gimme Hill all day.

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