Eric Decker racking up scoring opportunities

Mike Clay's OTD recap examines the players with the best scoring opportunities in Week 15 and during the 2015 season.

| 11 months ago
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Eric Decker racking up scoring opportunities


I’ve written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you’re new to the stat, be sure to check out the original introductions to rushing and receiving OTD. I’ve also improved my methodology in the past, and you can read the rushing, passing, and receiving articles via the provided links.

In a nutshell, the OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity.

Scroll down for the updated 2015 OTD leaderboard.

Week 15 Rundown

Receiving

Week 15 receiving OTD leaders: Ben Watson (2.0), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (1.4), Brandin Cooks (1.4), Rob Gronkowski (1.1), Doug Baldwin (1.1), Ted Ginn (1.1), Sammy Watkins (1.0), Jeff Janis (1.0), Golden Tate (1.0), Eric Decker (1.0)

Week 15 endzone target leaders: Sammy Watkins (3), Cameron Brate (2), Ted Ginn (2), Ben Watson (2), Antonio Brown (2), Amari Cooper (2), Davante Adams (2), Rob Gronkowski (2), Brandin Cooks (2), Jordan Reed (2), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2), Jeff Janis (2), Alshon Jeffery (2), Hakeem Nicks (2), Devin Funchess (2), Doug Baldwin (2), Golden Tate (2)

2015 endzone target leaders: Allen Robinson (19), Eric Decker (18), Brandon Marshall (18), Gary Barnidge (17), DeAndre Hopkins (17), Alshon Jeffery (16), Calvin Johnson (15), Martavis Bryant (13)

2015 receiving touchdown overachievers: Doug Baldwin (+7.2), Odell Beckham Jr. (+5.7), Ted Ginn (+5.2), Tyler Eifert (+5.1), Rob Gronkowski (+4.5), Sammy Watkins (+4.2), Tyler Lockett (+3.4), James Jones (+3.2), Allen Robinson (+3.2), Jordan Reed (+3.1)

2015 receiving touchdown underachievers: Mike Evans (-3.3), Brandon LaFell (-3.1), Alshon Jeffery (-3.1), Marcedes Lewis (-2.7), Jared Cook (-2.6), Davante Adams (-2.6), Zach Ertz (-2.2), Jason Witten (-2.2), Heath Miller (-2.1), Coby Fleener (-2)

Rushing

Week 15 rushing OTD leaders: Jeremy Hill (2.4), Todd Gurley (1.7), David A. Johnson (1.4), LeSean McCoy (1.2), Blake Bortles (1.0), Tim Hightower (0.9), Ryan Tannehill (0.8), Ronnie Hillman (0.8), Danny Woodhead (0.7), Eddie Lacy (0.7)

Week 15 ‘Inside the 5′ carry leaders: Jeremy Hill (5), Todd Gurley (4), David A. Johnson (2), Chris Ivory (2), LeSean McCoy (2)

2015 ‘Inside the 5′ carry leaders: Chris Ivory (17), Jeremy Hill (13), DeAngelo Williams (13), Adrian L. Peterson (11), Matt Forte (10), Mark Ingram (9), Jonathan C. Stewart (9), Ronnie Hillman (9), Chris D. Johnson (9), LeGarrette Blount (9)

2015 rushing touchdown overachievers: Lamar Miller (+4.1), Karlos Williams (+4), Devonta Freeman (+3.5), Todd Gurley (+3.3), Kirk Cousins (+3.2), Jamaal Charles (+2.8), Tavon Austin (+2.6), Spencer Ware (+2.4), David A. Johnson (+2.4), Andre Ellington (+2.2)

2015 rushing touchdown underachievers: Chris D. Johnson (-3.8), Andre Williams (-3.1), Javorius Allen (-3), Toby Gerhart (-2.7), Alfred Morris (-2.5), Frank Gore (-2.4), Denard Robinson (-2.2), Tevin Coleman (-2.2), Chris Ivory (-2.1), Melvin Gordon (-2.1)

2015 OTD LEADERBOARD
RUSHING   RECEIVING
Rk Rusher Att  TD OTD %   Rk Receiver Targ TD OTD %
1 Chris Ivory 230 7 9.1 133% 1 Eric Decker 112 10 10.1 161%
2 DeAngelo Williams 178 9 8.7 119% 2 Allen Robinson 124 13 9.8 127%
3 Jeremy Hill 188 10 8.7 129% 3 Brandon Marshall 144 11 9.0 112%
4 Jonathan C. Stewart 242 6 7.8 82% 4 DeAndre Hopkins 165 10 8.0 119%
5 Adrian L. Peterson 286 9 7.7 89% 5 Gary Barnidge 101 9 7.9 169%
6 LeGarrette Blount 165 6 7.1 101% 6 Greg Olsen 107 7 7.7 115%
7 Cam Newton 119 7 6.8 146% 7 Calvin Johnson 119 7 7.5 133%
8 Chris D. Johnson 196 3 6.8 104% 8 Odell Beckham Jr. 146 13 7.3 99%
9 Doug Martin 256 5 6.8 89% 9 Alshon Jeffery 92 4 7.1 125%
10 Latavius Murray 236 5 6.7 106% 10 Tyler Eifert 62 12 6.9 189%
11 Devonta Freeman 218 10 6.5 93% 11 Antonio Brown 162 9 6.8 83%
12 Frank Gore 226 4 6.4 101% 12 A.J. Green 110 8 6.7 103%
13 Ronnie Hillman 183 6 6.1 122% 13 Martavis Bryant 82 6 6.6 161%
14 Mark Ingram 166 6 5.9 92% 14 Rob Gronkowski 102 11 6.5 132%
15 Matt Forte 190 4 5.7 109% 15 Mike Evans 129 3 6.3 84%
16 Todd Gurley 210 9 5.7 110% 16 John Brown 84 6 6.2 121%
17 DeMarco Murray 176 4 4.7 106% 17 Julio Jones 171 7 6.1 90%
18 David A. Johnson 105 7 4.6 132% 18 Jordan Reed 97 9 5.9 137%
19 Isaiah Crowell 154 3 4.6 120% 19 Ben Watson 89 5 5.8 145%
20 Antonio Andrews 141 3 4.5 112% 20 Doug Baldwin 83 13 5.8 147%
21 Darren McFadden 208 3 4.4 98% 21 Allen Hurns 84 8 5.7 108%
22 Matthew Jones 144 3 4.4 105% 22 Michael Crabtree 128 7 5.7 101%
23 Marshawn Lynch 111 3 4.3 158% 23 Golden Tate 112 6 5.6 105%
24 Eddie Lacy 162 3 4.3 117% 24 Randall Cobb 112 6 5.5 92%
25 Charcandrick West 133 4 4.1 115% 25 Demaryius Thomas 149 5 5.4 96%
26 Andre Williams 80 1 4.1 196% 26 Larry Fitzgerald 129 7 5.4 68%
27 T.J. Yeldon 182 2 4.0 54% 27 Michael Floyd 76 6 5.4 116%
28 Jeremy Langford 124 6 3.9 113% 28 Richard Rodgers 71 7 5.4 143%
29 LeSean McCoy 202 3 3.8 86% 29 Brandin Cooks 113 8 5.2 102%
30 Joique Bell 80 3 3.5 204% 30 Jarvis Landry 135 4 5.0 87%
31 Alfred Morris 166 1 3.5 74% 31 T.Y. Hilton 112 5 4.9 92%
32 Giovani Bernard 140 2 3.5 71% 32 Dez Bryant 68 3 4.9 143%
33 Blake Bortles 48 2 3.3 165% 33 Ted Ginn 88 10 4.8 88%
34 Denard Robinson 56 1 3.2 140% 34 James Jones 68 8 4.8 132%
35 Jameis Winston 46 5 3.2 234% 35 Sammy Watkins 70 9 4.8 159%
36 Tevin Coleman 87 1 3.2 114% 36 Marvin Jones 81 4 4.7 98%
37 Ryan Mathews 98 5 3.1 128% 37 Terrance Williams 73 3 4.7 128%
38 Le’Veon Bell 113 3 3.1 68% 38 Julian Edelman 85 7 4.4 109%
39 Alfred Blue 147 2 3.0 115% 39 Julius Thomas 69 5 4.4 103%
40 Khiry Robinson 56 4 3.0 137% 40 Martellus Bennett 76 3 4.3 92%
41 Javorius Allen 105 0 3.0 105% 41 Donte Moncrief 96 6 4.3 93%
42 Danny Woodhead 82 3 3.0 219% 42 Pierre Garcon 92 4 4.3 104%
43 Lamar Miller 160 7 2.9 90% 43 Zach Ertz 80 2 4.2 137%
44 Thomas Rawls 147 4 2.9 79% 44 Anquan Boldin 94 3 4.2 116%
45 Mike Tolbert 50 1 2.8 141% 45 Kamar Aiken 103 5 4.2 101%
46 Carlos Hyde 115 3 2.7 99% 46 Jason Witten 90 2 4.2 92%
47 Toby Gerhart 20 0 2.7 323% 47 Malcom Floyd 60 3 4.2 164%
48 Justin Forsett 151 2 2.6 65% 48 Jeremy Maclin 109 6 4.2 117%
49 Joseph Randle 76 4 2.6 160% 49 Jordan Matthews 104 5 4.1 102%
50 Rashad Jennings 154 2 2.6 65% 50 Coby Fleener 70 2 4.0 120%

*New this year is the ‘%’ column. This is a factor that helps us better understand a player’s usage as it relates to his scoring opportunity. A mark of 100% is league average. The higher the number, the more the player is used near the goal line. And vice versa. Short yardage backs will often have a high number and scat backs will generally be low in the category.

Be sure to check back each week for updated OTD tables and analysis.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL

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