Most Fantasy leagues are in the books for 2012, which leaves us football-hungry crazy persons latching on to playoff contests and, of course, our plans for 2013 fantasy drafts.
Today, I sat down and drew up an early look at what your 2013 draft board will look like. I ranked 30 quarterbacks, 60 running backs, 70 wide receivers, and 30 tight ends. I assumed basic, non-PPR scoring.
Obviously, the draft and offseason player movement will cause changes (some major, many minor) to the board, but most of the names you see near the top will be there come July and August.
Before my posting my rankings, I wanted offer some advice to commissioners by first pointing out the growing depth at ALL positions. Pre-Flex, most leagues start 12 quarterbacks/tight ends, 24 running backs, and 36 wide receivers. Take a look at a few of the players who just missed the cut at each of those positions. Colin Kaepernick, Michael Vick, Lance Moore, Jeremy Maclin, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis are a few of the names you'll see.
Running backs always fly off the shelves early because of the lack of reliability and depth at the position. That seems to be changing a little bit as we head to 2013. There are 12 pretty solid RB1 options, and the upper-tier of No. 2 backs isn't as ugly as usual. Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews, Alfred Morris, and Darren McFadden each have top-five upside, but are outside my top-12. Check out a few names in the RB3/Flex area. Daryl Richardson, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Lamar Miller each could be lead backs on their current team next season. They're obviously risky picks if you're drafting today, but think about the upside if they scoop up lead back duties. Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Shonn Greene, Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, and Cedric Benson are among the formerly-fantasy relevant tailbacks who have a good shot of playing elsewhere in 2013. A few of them figure to land somewhere that will leave them squarely on the RB2 radar.
Starting a new league in 2013? Think about expanding on the conventional fantasy football starting lineup model. Make quarterbacks eligible for the flex. Go with an additional RB/WR/TE spot, too. Maybe go all out and add a third running back, fourth wide receiver, and second tight end slot. The biggest complaint of Fantasy Football owners is the amount of luck that comes with the game. A quick look at my early rankings (which, by the way, are minus incoming rookies) shows that the talent is there to rid of some of that luck simply by expanding the starting lineup. These days, a few strong early picks can carry Joe Autodrafter to the league championship game. By expanding starting lineups, missing on mid/late-round picks and failing to work the waiver wire will leave Joe on the sidelines come December.
My bet would be that larger starting lineups is the future of fantasy football, so I recommend getting a leg up now.
Okay, enough with the rambling. Here's the rankings:
*Team shown is the incumbent. ‘Contract' refers to the year of expiration on each player's contract.
Quarterbacks
Rk | Player | Team | Contract |
1 | Robert Griffin III | Washington | 2015 |
2 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay | 2014 |
3 | Drew Brees | New Orleans | 2016 |
4 | Peyton Manning | Denver | 2016 |
5 | Cam Newton | Carolina | 2014 |
6 | Tom Brady | New England | 2014 |
7 | Matt Ryan | Atlanta | 2013 |
8 | Andrew Luck | Indianapolis | 2015 |
9 | Matthew Stafford | Detroit | 2014 |
10 | Tony Romo | Dallas | 2013 |
11 | Eli Manning | New York Giants | 2015 |
12 | Russell Wilson | Seattle | 2015 |
13 | Colin Kaepernick | San Francisco | 2014 |
14 | Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh | 2015 |
15 | Michael Vick | Philadelphia | 2015 |
16 | Philip Rivers | San Diego | 2015 |
17 | Josh Freeman | Tampa Bay | 2013 |
18 | Matt Schaub | Houston | 2016 |
19 | Andy Dalton | Cincinnati | 2014 |
20 | Nick Foles | Philadelphia | 2015 |
21 | Joe Flacco | Baltimore | UFA |
22 | Jay Cutler | Chicago | 2013 |
23 | Ryan Tannehill | Miami | 2015 |
24 | Sam Bradford | St. Louis | 2015 |
25 | Jake Locker | Tennessee | 2014 |
26 | Brandon Weeden | Cleveland | 2015 |
27 | Carson Palmer | Oakland | 2014 |
28 | Chad Henne | Jacksonville | 2013 |
29 | Christian Ponder | Minnesota | 2014 |
30 | Alex D. Smith | San Francisco | 2014 |
W | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Buffalo | 2017 |
W | Mark Sanchez | New York Jets | 2016 |
W | Matt Flynn | Seattle | 2014 |
W | Tim Tebow | New York Jets | 2014 |
W | Blaine Gabbert | Jacksonville | 2014 |
W | Kevin Kolb | Arizona | 2016 |
W | Matt Cassel | Kansas City | 2014 |
W | Matt Moore | Miami | UFA |
W | Ryan Mallett | New England | 2014 |
W | Matt Hasselbeck | Tennessee | 2013 |
W | Brian Hoyer | Arizona | UFA |
*I listed a handful of quarterbacks worth “watching” (W) this offseason. Each has a shot at finding a starting job somewhere in 2013, which would put them on the QB2/3 radar. For now, though, they're not worth ranking.
Running Backs
Rk | Player | Team | Contract |
1 | Arian Foster | Houston | 2016 |
2 | Adrian L. Peterson | Minnesota | 2017 |
3 | C.J. Spiller | Buffalo | 2014 |
4 | LeSean McCoy | Philadelphia | 2017 |
5 | Ray Rice | Baltimore | 2016 |
6 | Doug Martin | Tampa Bay | 2015 |
7 | Jamaal Charles | Kansas City | 2015 |
8 | Marshawn Lynch | Seattle | 2015 |
9 | Trent Richardson | Cleveland | 2015 |
10 | Chris D. Johnson | Tennessee | 2016 |
11 | Demarco Murray | Dallas | 2014 |
12 | Matt Forte | Chicago | 2015 |
13 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jacksonville | 2013 |
14 | Alfred Morris | Washington | 2015 |
15 | Stevan Ridley | New England | 2014 |
16 | Ryan Mathews | San Diego | 2014 |
17 | Darren McFadden | Oakland | 2013 |
18 | Jonathan Stewart | Carolina | 2017 |
19 | Frank Gore | San Francisco | 2014 |
20 | Ahmad Bradshaw | New York Giants | 2014 |
21 | Steven Jackson | St. Louis | UFA |
22 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | Cincinnati | 2014 |
23 | Mikel Leshoure | Detroit | 2014 |
24 | Reggie Bush | Miami | UFA |
25 | Darren Sproles | New Orleans | 2014 |
26 | Daryl Richardson | St. Louis | 2015 |
27 | Jacquizz Rodgers | Atlanta | 2014 |
28 | Lamar Miller | Miami | 2015 |
29 | Vick Ballard | Indianapolis | 2015 |
30 | Willis McGahee | Denver | 2014 |
31 | Daniel Thomas | Miami | 2014 |
32 | David Wilson | New York Giants | 2015 |
33 | Fred Jackson | Buffalo | 2014 |
34 | Isaiah Pead | St. Louis | 2015 |
35 | Mark Ingram | New Orleans | 2014 |
36 | DeAngelo Williams | Carolina | 2015 |
37 | Shonn Greene | New York Jets | UFA |
38 | Ryan Williams | Arizona | 2014 |
39 | Ben Tate | Houston | 2013 |
40 | Ronnie Hillman | Denver | 2015 |
41 | Michael Turner | Atlanta | 2013 |
42 | Rashard Mendenhall | Pittsburgh | UFA |
43 | Cedric Benson | Green Bay | UFA |
44 | Andre Brown | New York Giants | ERFA |
45 | Bryce Brown | Philadelphia | 2015 |
46 | Bilal Powell | New York Jets | 2014 |
47 | Jahvid Best | Detroit | 2014 |
48 | Jason Snelling | Atlanta | 2014 |
49 | Danny Woodhead | New England | UFA |
50 | Beanie Wells | Arizona | 2013 |
51 | Joique Bell | Detroit | RFA |
52 | Bernard Pierce | Baltimore | 2015 |
53 | Donald Brown | Indianapolis | 2013 |
54 | Robert Turbin | Seattle | 2015 |
55 | Pierre Thomas | New Orleans | 2014 |
56 | Kendall Hunter | San Francisco | 2014 |
57 | Michael Bush | Chicago | 2015 |
58 | Shane Vereen | New England | 2014 |
59 | Chris Ivory | New Orleans | RFA |
60 | Brandon Bolden | New England | 2014 |
Wide Receiver
Rk | Player | Tm | Contract |
1 | Calvin Johnson | Detroit | 2019 |
2 | A.J. Green | Cincinnati | 2014 |
3 | Brandon Marshall | Chicago | 2014 |
4 | Demaryius Thomas | Denver | 2014 |
5 | Julio Jones | Atlanta | 2014 |
6 | Dez Bryant | Dallas | 2014 |
7 | Percy Harvin | Minnesota | 2013 |
8 | Randall Cobb | Green Bay | 2014 |
9 | Andre Johnson | Houston | 2016 |
10 | Victor Cruz | New York Giants | RFA |
11 | Wes Welker | New England | UFA |
12 | Vincent Jackson | Tampa Bay | 2016 |
13 | Roddy White | Atlanta | 2014 |
14 | Jordy Nelson | Green Bay | 2014 |
15 | Hakeem Nicks | New York Giants | 2013 |
16 | Pierre Garcon | Washington | 2016 |
17 | Eric Decker | Denver | 2013 |
18 | Larry Fitzgerald | Arizona | 2018 |
19 | Marques Colston | New Orleans | 2016 |
20 | Dwayne Bowe | Kansas City | UFA |
21 | Michael Crabtree | San Francisco | 2014 |
22 | Reggie Wayne | Indianapolis | 2014 |
23 | Miles Austin | Dallas | 2016 |
24 | Mike Wallace | Pittsburgh | UFA |
25 | Greg Jennings | Green Bay | UFA |
26 | Torrey Smith | Baltimore | 2014 |
27 | Steve L. Smith | Carolina | 2015 |
28 | Danny Amendola | St. Louis | UFA |
29 | Cecil Shorts | Jacksonville | 2014 |
30 | Brandon Lloyd | New England | 2014 |
31 | Steve Johnson | Buffalo | 2016 |
32 | Antonio Brown | Pittsburgh | 2017 |
33 | James Jones | Green Bay | 2013 |
34 | Josh Gordon | Cleveland | 2014 |
35 | Justin Blackmon | Jacksonville | 2015 |
36 | Kenny Britt | Tennessee | 2013 |
37 | Lance Moore | New Orleans | 2015 |
38 | Jeremy Maclin | Philadelphia | 2013 |
39 | Mike A. Williams | Tampa Bay | 2013 |
40 | Denarius Moore | Oakland | 2014 |
41 | Danario Alexander | San Diego | RFA |
42 | DeSean Jackson | Philadelphia | 2016 |
43 | Sidney Rice | Seattle | 2015 |
44 | Brian Hartline | Miami | UFA |
45 | Santonio Holmes | New York Jets | 2015 |
46 | T.Y. Hilton | Indianapolis | 2015 |
47 | Kendall Wright | Tennessee | 2015 |
48 | Vincent Brown | San Diego | 2014 |
49 | Alshon Jeffery | Chicago | 2015 |
50 | Brandon LaFell | Carolina | 2013 |
51 | Anquan Boldin | Baltimore | 2013 |
52 | Malcom Floyd | San Diego | 2015 |
53 | Michael Floyd | Arizona | 2015 |
54 | Ryan Broyles | Detroit | 2015 |
55 | Jonathan Baldwin | Kansas City | 2014 |
56 | Mohamed Sanu | Cincinnati | 2015 |
57 | Rueben Randle | New York Giants | 2015 |
58 | Chris Givens | St. Louis | 2015 |
59 | Andre Roberts | Arizona | 2013 |
60 | Emmanuel Sanders | Pittsburgh | RFA |
61 | Rod Streater | Oakland | 2014 |
62 | Golden Tate | Seattle | 2013 |
63 | Domenik Hixon | New York Giants | UFA |
64 | Davone Bess | Miami | 2013 |
65 | Jeremy Kerley | New York Jets | 2014 |
66 | Mario Manningham | San Francisco | 2013 |
67 | Laurent Robinson | Jacksonville | 2016 |
68 | Greg Little | Cleveland | 2014 |
69 | A.J. Jenkins | San Francisco | 2015 |
70 | T.J. Graham | Buffalo | 2015 |
Tight End
Rk | Player | Team | Contract |
1 | Jimmy Graham | New Orleans | 2013 |
2 | Rob Gronkowski | New England | 2019 |
3 | Aaron Hernandez | New England | 2018 |
4 | Jason Witten | Dallas | 2017 |
5 | Tony Gonzalez | Atlanta | UFA |
6 | Owen Daniels | Houston | 2014 |
7 | Kyle Rudolph | Minnesota | 2014 |
8 | Greg Olsen | Carolina | 2015 |
9 | Heath Miller | Pittsburgh | 2014 |
10 | Jermaine Gresham | Cincinnati | 2014 |
11 | Dennis Pitta | Baltimore | RFA |
12 | Martellus Bennett | New York Giants | UFA |
13 | Jared Cook | Tennessee | UFA |
14 | Antonio Gates | San Diego | 2015 |
15 | Vernon Davis | San Francisco | 2015 |
16 | Fred Davis | Washington | UFA |
17 | Brandon Pettigrew | Detroit | 2014 |
18 | Jermichael Finley | Green Bay | 2013 |
19 | Brandon Myers | Oakland | UFA |
20 | Brent Celek | Philadelphia | 2016 |
21 | Dustin Keller | New York Jets | UFA |
22 | Dwayne Allen | Indianapolis | 2015 |
23 | Jacob Tamme | Denver | 2014 |
24 | Rob Housler | Arizona | 2014 |
25 | Scott Chandler | Buffalo | 2013 |
26 | Marcedes Lewis | Jacksonville | 2015 |
27 | Lance Kendricks | St. Louis | 2014 |
28 | Jordan Cameron | Cleveland | 2014 |
29 | D.J. Williams Jr. | Green Bay | 2014 |
30 | Tony Moeaki | Kansas City | 2013 |
Follow Mike Clay on Twitter at @MikeClayNFL