Dynasty Stock Watch – January

Michael Moore analyzes the dynasty value of players including Nick Foles and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

| 2 years ago
082012-nick-foles-400

Dynasty Stock Watch – January


082012-nick-foles-400As seasoned dynasty players know, just because it’s the off-season does not mean it’s time to rest. Now is the time to truly analyze your dynasty team in preparation for 2015. The players below can play a key role in building your roster for the upcoming season, so let’s see who you should start shopping.

 

SELL

Nick Foles – QB – Philadelphia Eagles – Not many players have the roller coaster ride in fantasy circles that Nick Foles has had. After coming off the bench in 2013 and turning in a 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Foles did an about-face. No one expected Foles to keep that pace, but to drop off so dramatically was startling. He finished the season injured, but he had a 13-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio and went from a +7.4 Pro Football Focus rating to a -7.4 rating. And while it seemed that backup Mark Sanchez did nothing to wrestle the job away from Foles, it hasn’t stopped the rumors that head coach Chip Kelly will go after his former star quarterback Marcus Mariota in the draft.

There are a lot of balls in the air regarding Foles and his fantasy outlook, but I’d get out while you can.

Vincent Jackson – WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Vincent Jackson has been one the more productive receivers in recent history, turning in 1,000-yard seasons in six of his last seven seasons despite less than stellar quarterback play at times. But heading into his age-32 season, it might be time to sell Jackson while there’s still value.

On the surface, it may seem like Jackson might be able to sustain his incredible production. Tampa brought in previous Falcons offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to turn things around for an offense ranked 30th in the league. Tampa is also expected to draft a quarterback with the top pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Whoever they select has a good chance to have a better season than both Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, who combined for a pedestrian 3,600 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to go along with 20 interceptions in 2014.

These should be your selling points to a team interested in winning now. Jackson’s calling card is the big play, and he could still contribute in a situational role, but you’d be better off with a young prospect or draft pick in your dynasty leagues.

 

BUY

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TE – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Not much went right for Austin Seferian-Jenkins in his rookie campaign. After a foot injury that was lingering since February sidelined him a few weeks early in the season, ASJ only played eight more games before heading to the IR with a back injury. In all, he tallied only 21 catches for 221 yards with two touchdowns. Even for a rookie tight end, it was a disappointment.

However, there is reason to think Seferian-Jenkins can have a much better sophomore season. First, he’ll be fully healthy and in camp from the outset as opposed to last year thanks to the University of Washington’s late graduation. Additionally, Tampa brought in offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to turn around an offense that ranked 29th in points and 30th in yards. Koetter should be able to immediately improve the offense after running a Falcons offense that finished 8th, 14th, and 8th in his three years at the helm.

Perhaps the biggest reason for hope is the inevitable switch at quarterback. With the Bucs on the clock with the first overall pick, it’s widely expected for them to take Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston. Whomever they select will probably not rank any lower than 34th in Pro Football Focus ratings like incumbent Josh McCown did. In all, there may never be a better time to scoop up Seferian-Jenkins.

Joseph Randle – RB – Dallas Cowboys – Randle is truly a lottery ticket as his stock is wholly dependent on the Cowboys decision with DeMarco Murray. Should the Cowboys re-sign Murray, Randle would keep his role as Murray’s primary backup.

However, should Murray prove too expensive for the Cowboys, Randle would sit atop the depth chart—a spot he’s earned after an impressive sophomore season. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry with 46.5 percent of his yards coming on runs of 15 yards or more. He proved he can handle a potential full-time role with his first-place finish in yards after contact per attempt among backs with at least 10 carries, as well as his spotless pass block efficiency rating.

There’s a lot to like with Randle, and if there’s a possibility of snagging him in your dynasty leagues, you should. The cat will be out of the bag well before DeMarco Murray settles on a destination.

 

Michael Moore is a contributor to the Dynasty section of Pro Football Focus. Check out his dynasty-centric website at www.DynastyFantasyFootballCentral.com or follow him on Twitter @Dynasty_FFC.



Michael Moore has written for PFF Fantasy since 2013, focusing primarily on dynasty content. He’s also hosted the PFF Fantasy Slant Podcast since 2014.

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