We had another swing and a miss with our lineup last week. Matt Forte and Giovani Bernard did their jobs, but a goose egg out of Andrew Hawkins and lackluster days from Heath Miller and Eli Manning sealed our fate.
Back to the drawing board this week. We’re now sitting with $121.50 for the season, which means we’re still in the black. Let’s turn thing around this week and get off the schneid.
We’re going to go slightly more conservative, putting all of our money into double-ups. We have $25 to play, so we’ll do five $2 double-ups, and three $5 double-ups.
So here’s the play:
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So here’s the play:
Week 7 Bankroll: $121.80 – $24 played
QB: Derek Carr
I know it’s tempting to dump money into quarterback, but I still feel more confident in picking a strong option on the cheap. Carr really turned a corner last week against a tough San Diego defense, and this week faces a Cards team that just yielded a strong week Kirk Cousins. Carr is one of the best budget-conscious options at quarterback this week.
RB: Andre Ellington
This is another matchup-based play. The Raiders are currently the No. 4 matchup for running backs this season, yielding big games to Branden Oliver and Lamarr Miller in their last two contests. Ellington is starting to hit his stride, and gives the added bonus of being a strong receiver out of the backfield.
RB: Branden Oliver
Ride the trend. Oliver has 306 total yards and three touchdowns in the last two games. No, the Chiefs aren’t the best matchup for running backs, but the Chargers have shown a commitment to Oliver and the run game. That means a nice high floor out of the young back, which is exactly what we want in our cash game lineups
WR: Jordy Nelson
Speaking of high floors, they don’t get much higher than Nelson’s. He’s seen double-digit targets in 4-of-6 games this season and is the best bet for a touchdown in Green Bay. Sure, the price is high, but that’s why we start Carr at quarterback. It allows us to spend a bit more liberally at other positions.
WR: Golden Tate
We’re going to try this one again. Yes, Tate was a massive disappointment last week after he racked up fantasy points in his previous two outings. However, Tate gets a plus matchup against a Saints team that has yielded five touchdowns to receivers in their last two games. With Calvin Johnson likely to again be sidelined, Tate should see a high volume of targets in this one.
WR: Doug Baldwin
Until about 15 hours ago, I would not have considered this play. But with Percy Harvin now a Jet, Baldwin becomes the de facto No. 1 receiver in Seattle. At just $4,800, he’s a huge bargain. I don’t expect a huge game out of Baldwin, but if he gets us 10 fantasy points, he doubles his salary. That’s exactly what we’re looking for with this play.
TE: Julius Thomas
Here’s the player around whom I built this week’s lineup. Thomas is super-pricey, but he gets a good matchup against a banged up 49ers defense with Patrick Willis sidelined. More importantly, his quarterback needs just three touchdowns to pass Brett Favre for the all-time record. We know Peyton Manning loves to look for Thomas when records are on the line, so it could be a big night for Thomas.
K: Shayne Graham
Let’s go back to the well with Graham. He’s still extremely cheap and I’d rather save money at kicker and spend at team defense.
DST: Bills
The Vikings have yielded huge fantasy days to each of their last two opponents. With their offensive line struggling, Minnesota will have their hands full with an aggressive Bills defense. I expect Buffalo to be this week’s top-scoring fantasy defense.
GPP Plays
While slow and steady may win the race in 50-50s, you’re not going to win a Guaranteed Prize Pool by playing it conservative. The key is to start players in good situations who may be overlooked by you opponents.
Base on the percentage owned from Thursday contests, here are some interesting GPP plays:
Stack of the Week
Derek Carr ($6,800) and Andre Holmes ($6,000)
I’ve already discussed why I like Carr this week, so this stack should make perfect sense. In GPPs, we want to roster receivers who have the best chance of scoring a long touchdown. Holmes displayed that ability last week, so we have to like his chances of getting loose for another one this week.
Under-the-Radar Running Back
Isaiah Crowell ($5,300)
Crowell’s price tag sticks out like a sore thumb in this matchup. Sure, he’s not the lead back, but the Browns showed last week that he’ll still get his share of work spelling Ben Tate. Jacksonville has been a strong matchup for running backs this season, so Crowell is a sneaky GPP play.
Swing for the Fences
Devante Adams ($5,200)
Adams got more work last week, and ended up being a decent DFS play. But we want more. With Aaron Rodgers looking his way more often, a big game is coming for Adams. Perhaps it happens this week.
Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven of PFF Fantasy.
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