Duel Action – Week 5

Jeff Ratcliffe breaks down his DFS strategies for Week 5 at FanDuel giving and optimized 50-50 lineup and GPP plays.

| 2 years ago
Julio Jones

Duel Action – Week 5


Julio JonesThe first month of the season is in the rearview mirror, and we’ve cashed in all four weeks so far. Last week, our optimized FanDuel lineup put up 130.56 points thanks to big days out of Antonio Brown, Matt Forte, and Teddy Bridgewater.

We had $30 in play, spread across four $5 double ups, and two $5 triple ups. Our lineup was good enough to cash in every contest, giving us a return of $70 for the week. That brings our season bankroll up to $191.50, which means we’ve nearly doubled our initial bankroll in just four weeks of play.

This week, we’re going to put $40 into play, so just slightly over 20 percent of our bankroll. We’ll go with six $5 double ups, and two $5 triple ups. That gives us the potential to win $90 if we hit, which is a profit of $50.

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So here’s the play:  

Week 5 Bankroll: $191.80 – $40 played

FD Wk5

 

QB: Drew Stanton

No, this certainly isn’t the safest play, but don’t write Stanton off. He was decent in his last outing, putting up 244 yards and two scores against the 49ers. He also faces a Broncos team that currently yields the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Stanton’s modest price tag will allow us to stack our lineup elsewhere.

RB: Reggie Bush

The Lions ruled out Joique Bell for Week 5 due to a concussion, so Bush figures to see a feature-back workload. Buffalo isn’t a pushover matchup, but it’s tough to pass up on the volume Bush is likely to see.

RB: Rashad Jennings

Jennings saw a light workload in Week 4, but don’t think this is turning into a timeshare with Andre Williams. The Giants had an opportunity to rest their starter in a blowout, so they took it. Jennings is still the lead dog and gets a cupcake this week against a Falcons team that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs.

WR: Antonio Brown

Speaking of good matchups, fantasy’s top receiver gets a great one this week against a Jags team that has gotten torched through the air this season. Last week, Jacksonville yielded 18 catches for 279 yards and three scores to Chargers receivers, so expect another big day from Brown.

WR: Julio Jones

The hits keep coming in this week’s roster. Jones has been nearly unstoppable this season. Even in a “bad” game last week, he still managed 82 yards on six catches. Ideally, the game scrip would dictate a Giants’ lead so we get plenty of both Jennings and Jones in Week 5. That’s what the kids call synergy.

WR: Brandon LaFell

Time to pinch some pennies and get a bargain basement play. LaFell has seen 15 targets in the Pats’ last two games, catching 10 balls for 165 yards and a score. He offers a strong ceiling and allows us to make a strong play at tight end.

TE: Jimmy Graham

And boom goes the dynamite. It doesn’t get much stronger that this. Even in a down game last week, Graham managed eight catches for 86 yards and a score. The Saints are a much better team at home, so I expect a big week from Graham against a Bucs team that just yielded a strong fantasy day to Heath Miller.

K: Cody Parkey

It’s tempting to still roll with Shayne Graham, but we’re going to upgrade slightly this week. While he’s coming off a down week, Parkey is still fantasy’s No. 4 kicker and he gets a plus matchup against a Rams team that currently yields 9.3 fantasy points per game to opposing kickers.

DST: Lions

The league’s No. 1 defense has quietly put up the third-most fantasy points so far this season. This week they get to face Captain Neckbeard himself, Kyle Orton, who was named the starter this week. That sounds like fun, so I want in on this action.

 

GPP Plays

While slow and steady may win the race in 50-50s, you’re not going to win a Guaranteed Prize Pool by playing it conservative. The key is to start players in good situations who may be overlooked by you opponents.

Base on the percentage owned from Thursday contests, here are some interesting GPP plays:

Stack of the Week

Drew Stanton ($5,900) and Michael Floyd ($6,600)

With both players coming on the cheap, this is an intriguing play in GPPs and cash games. Stanton targeted Floyd nine times in his last start, and was very close to connecting on a big touchdown.

Under-the-Radar Running Back

Khiry Robinson ($4,900)

He’s not getting a ton of snaps, so you’re not going to want to rely on Robinson in cash games. But he does offer upside after displaying some big play ability last week. Playing at home on the turf in the Superdome certainly helps the cause.

Swing for the Fences

Allen Hurns ($5,300) or Allen Robinson ($5,000)

Hurns and Robinson offer intriguing upside with Blake Bortles at the helm. Vegas currently has the Jags as six-point dogs to the Steelers, which suggests Jacksonville will likely be in this one. The way their defense is playing, they’ll likely have to put some points on the board to keep it close.

 


Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven of PFF Fantasy.  

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| Director of Fantasy

Jeff Ratcliffe is the Director of Fantasy at Pro Football Focus. He produces all of our projections and is one of the most accurate rankers in the fantasy industry. Jeff also is the host of our show on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio and is one of the main hosts of our Fantasy Slant podcast.

  • Stretchrunner147

    I see G Tate benefiting more than Bush from Bell’s absence

    • Jeff Ratcliffe

      Our lineup optimizer tool has Bush as the second best RB in terms of cost/point, and Mike Clay is projecting Bush as a Top 10 play this week.

      • Aaron B. Koontz

        Where is the “lineup optimizer” you speak of? Thanks in advance!

      • Stretchrunner147

        did your optimizer have Alan Hurns starting 1st week….cuz i did,,not being a smart ass…

      • Stretchrunner147

        So Jeff is PFF hiring…………..