Duel Action – Week 4
Jeff Ratcliffe breaks down his DFS strategies for Week 4 at FanDuel giving and optimized 50-50 lineup and GPP plays.
Duel Action – Week 4
Well, it wasn’t a huge one in Week 3, as our optimized FanDuel lineup scored 105.72. That’s a score that won’t win you a GPP, but that’s exactly why we play cash games. We don’t need a massive week to make money.
Last week we played $21 spread across three $2 50-50s, two $5 double up, and one $5 triple up. While we didn’t cash in the triple up, we managed to make money in all of the rest of the contests we entered. So that was a total of $30.80 back into the bankroll, giving us a total of $151.60 for the season. After three weeks, we’re up 50 percent of our original roll. Not too shabby.
We played 15 percent of out bankroll in each of the last two weeks, but we’re going to increase that to 20 percent this week, or roughly $30. As we start to gather more data points on the season, we can continually increase our percentage in play. By the end of the season, I fully anticipate playing 30-35 percent each week.
Going for the gusto this week, we’ll play four $5 double ups, and two $5 triple ups. That gives us the potential to win $70 if we hit, which is a profit of $40.
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So here’s the play:
Week 4 Bankroll: $151.80 – $30 played
QB: Teddy Bridgewater
There aren’t a ton of quarterbacks I like this week, so it was between Bridgewater, Drew Brees ($9,200), and Colin Kaepernick ($8,100). Based on roster construction, I’m going with the cheapest option of the three. While the Falcons have yet to give up a huge day to quarterbacks this season, they’re yielded a touchdown pass in each of the first three weeks and gave up 250 yards or more in two of those three weeks. Bridgewater is certainly a risk, but we’re going to take it. His price allows us to stack our lineup this week.
RB: Matt Forte
Sure, he’s going to be in a ton of lineups this week, but for good reason. The Packers currently give up the fifth most fantasy points per game to running backs and have already yielded five touchdowns to the position.
RB: Donald Brown
With the Chargers running back corps banged up, Brown touched the ball a gazillion times last week (that number is not official). Expect more of the same this week against the top matchup for running backs. The Jags give up an average of 184.3 total yards and two scores per game to the position.
WR: Antonio Brown
With double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks, Brown is Big Ben’s go-to receiver, and you know that. You may not know that the Bucs are the No. 1 fantasy matchup for receivers this year. Okay, maybe you do after what Julio Jones did to them last Thursday night.
WR: Jeremy Maclin
Wide receivers have torched the 49ers so far this season, and Maclin is the best option on a potent Eagles offense. Through three weeks he’s seen 31 targets, so expect to see a lot of balls in Maclin’s direction this Sunday.
WR: Golden Tate
With Calvin Johnson banged up and likely to see a lot of attention on Sunday, Tate makes for an ideal play. His price tag certainly helps, but I expect Tate to have his biggest game so far with the Lions and like his chances of finding the end zone.
TE: Jimmy Graham
Any time you can figure out a way to get Graham in you’re lineup it’s a win, especially when he’s in a prime time game against the league’s best matchup for tight ends. Get your popcorn ready.
K: Shayne Graham
He’s cheap and plays on a team with a good offense. That means lots of opportunities for points. Keep riding Graham until his price tag goes up.
We’re shopping in the clearance section, as we were down to five choices at $4,600-and-under – Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Tampa. For me, it’s between the Jets and Packers, so I’m going with the divisional matchup and hoping we see some Cutler interceptions. Realize that this isn’t an ideal play, but our roster is so stacked elsewhere that we should be able to sustain a bad week out of our defense.
While slow and steady may win the race in 50-50s, you’re not going to win a Guaranteed Prize Pool by playing it conservative. The key is to start players in good situations who may be overlooked by you opponents.
Base on the percentage owned from Thursday contests, here are some interesting GPP plays.
Stack of the Week
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900) and Cordarelle Patterson ($6,600)
I was tempted to stack Patterson in our cash game lineup, but it would have prevented us from playing Graham. This one has the potential to pay big dividends if it hits.
Under-the-Radar Running Back
DeAngelo Williams ($5,700)
Sure, you don’t want to rely on this guy in your cash games, but Williams is the only show in town for Carolina. He still has some tread left on the tires, and certainly could break a big run. There a few running backs who offer as much upside at such a cheap price tag.
Swing for the Fences
Markus Wheaton ($5,100)
I’m not going as deep as I have in the first three weeks, but Wheaton is still a deeper play who is nice and cheap. He has a beaucoup matchup and has show the ability to be a big play threat.
Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven of PFF Fantasy.
Jeff Ratcliffe | Director of Fantasy
Jeff Ratcliffe is the Director of Fantasy at Pro Football Focus. He produces all of our projections and is 2016's second-most-accurate ranker in the fantasy industry. Jeff also is the host of our show on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio and is one of the main hosts of our Fantasy Slant podcast.