Patrick Mahomes first QB taken in Gordon McGuinness’ mock draft

PFF's "Mock Week" continues with Analyst Gordon McGuinness' take on Round 1 of the 2017 NFL Draft.

| 2 months ago
Patrick Mahomes in PFF Mock Week

Patrick Mahomes first QB taken in Gordon McGuinness’ mock draft


Pro Football Focus’ first ever “Mock Week” continues with Gordon McGuinness’ breakdown of Round 1. From April 10–14, look for a new mock each day for a unique perspective on the 2017 NFL Draft from our analysis team.

After colleague Josh Liskiewitz’s mock draft yesterday, you must now endure the first 32 picks in this year’s NFL Draft through my mind. Similar to Liskiewitz’s mock, this is not a prediction of how the draft will actually play out. Rather, it’s a look at what I would do with each pick, leaning as much as possible on our collective draft board.

And no, unfortunately, Arizona State kicker Zane Gonzalez doesn’t make the first round.

1. Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett, Edge, Texas A&M

Rookie Emmanuel Ogbah led the Browns with six sacks, 10 hits, and 30 hurries last year, while Garrett registered 31 sacks, 35 hits, and 98 hurries over the past three seasons with the Aggies. This is quite simply a no-brainer.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Derek Barnett, Edge, Tennessee

There are a number of ways the 49ers can go, but they need pass-rush help, and Barnett registered 34 sacks, 43 hits, and 110 hurries over the past three seasons—topping Myles Garrett in total QB pressures over their college careers.

3. Chicago Bears

Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State

Lattimore has the size, speed, and range to succeed at the NFL level. With everything a team looks for in a shutdown cornerback, he allowed an NFL passer rating of just 31.9 on throws into his coverage last season.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

PFF overall grades for Jaguars QB Blake Bortles in the past three seasons: 41.8 (2014), 80.3 (2015), and 52.9 (2016). Unless the new regime in Jacksonville believes they can get Bortles back on track, I’d go QB here. Throwing for 1,281 yards and 15 touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards downfield, Mahomes can make things happen deep.

5. Tennessee Titans

Reuben Foster, LB, Alabama

As the best overall player in this draft, in my opinion, Foster led all draft-eligible inside linebackers with a tackle resulting in a defensive stop on 16.3 percent of his run-defense snaps. He’s an impact player from day one.

6. New York Jets

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

It’s time for a franchise quarterback for the New York Jets. Watson threw 14 touchdown passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air in 2016, and can be the future at the position for the Jets.

7. Los Angeles Chargers

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

New city and, eventually, new starting quarterback. Philip Rivers can’t go on forever, and Trubisky threw just one interception when under pressure in 2016.

8. Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

McCaffrey can score as a runner, receiver, or returner. He forced 162 missed tackles on 731 touches on offense over the past three seasons, and can add even more excitement to the Carolina offense.

9. Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

I’m a little nervous about his deep speed, but as a big target opposite A.J. Green, he can thrive. Williams averaged 3.34 yards per route run last year, good for 12th in the nation (minimum 50 targets).

10. Buffalo Bills

Jonathan Allen, DI, Alabama

The long-term replacement for Kyle Williams, Allen racked up 13 sacks, 13 hits, and 41 hurries in the 2016 season. He can contribute as an interior pass-rusher early on and grow into a bigger role.

11. New Orleans Saints

Tre’Davious White, CB, LSU

One of the best defensive playmakers in this draft, White can hurt opponents both on defense and special teams. He allowed just 42.6 percent of passes into his coverage to be caught in the 2016 season.

12. Cleveland Browns

Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

It worries me that Hooker missed 24.1 percent of the tackles he attempted in 2016, but he has the range to be a top safety in the NFL. Let Myles Garrett rush the passer and Hooker find the ball downfield on defense.

13. Arizona Cardinals

O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama

I think O.J. Howard can be everything the Cardinals want Jermaine Gresham to be and more. Howard was the highest-graded run blocker among tight ends in the nation last year, and a physical freak as a receiver, averaging 7.3 yards after the catch per reception.

14. Philadelphia Eagles

John Ross, WR, Washington

Ross can blow games open with his angle-changing speed, and had seven touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards in the air last year. He can make defenders miss, too, with 18 missed tackles on 81 receptions.

15. Indianapolis Colts

Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan

Lewis has arguably the best ball skills of any cornerback in this draft class. He recorded six interceptions and 28 pass breakups over the past three seasons, and didn’t allow an NFL passer rating above 52.8 in that span.

16. Baltimore Ravens

Carl Lawson, Edge, Auburn

One of the most obvious fits in the draft, Lawson can step in and replace Elvis Dumervil from day one. Finally fully healthy in 2016, he racked up nine sacks, 15 hits, and 45 hurries for the Tigers.

17. Washington Redskins

Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State

Cook can be a gamebreaker in 2017 in the NFC East. Not only did he lead the nation with 92 missed tackles in 2016, but he also averaged 4.2 yards after contact per carry and can add another dimension to their offense going forward.

18. Tennessee Titans

Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan

Davis feels like the perfect fit for this offense, and can break games open by taking short passes the distance. His yards per route run averages of 3.49 in 2015 and 3.56 in 2016 ranked inside the top 10 among all wide receivers for both years.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Solomon Thomas, Edge, Stanford

Thomas falls further than expected here, but that’s just how the picks panned out. He racked up 10 sacks, 12 hits, and 22 hurries last season, and is a monster against the run. Ultimately, Thomas’ value at No. 19 overall is too much to pass up.

20. Denver Broncos

Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin

Right tackle is a huge need for the Broncos, and Ramczyk is the type of player a team can plug in and play from day one. He allowed just one sack, three hits, and eight hurries in the 2016 season, and is a great fit for Denver’s running game.

21. Detroit Lions

Haason Reddick, LB, Temple

An off-the-ball linebacker who you can also bring down as a pass-rusher situationally? Sign me up, as this helps two needs for the Lions. Reddick registered 10 sacks, four hits, and 30 hurries in the 2016 season, and is an outstanding athlete at linebacker.

22. Miami Dolphins

Jordan Willis, Edge, Kansas State

Cameron Wake can’t play forever, and Jordan Willis can be a nice partner for him as long as the veteran continues on. Willis’ combine numbers caught everyone’s attention, but it’s his 15 sacks, eight hits, and 54 hurries that make him deserving of a first-round selection.

23. New York Giants

Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt

Cunningham’s tackling needs work, with 21 misses in the 2016 season alone, but he is a fantastic athlete that can be a three-down linebacker for the next decade in the NFL. Cunningham made a tackle resulting in a defensive stop on 14.7 percent of run-defense snaps last year.

24. Oakland Raiders

Jamal Adams, S, LSU

Like Solomon Thomas, I really like Jamal Adams, but couldn’t find a fit I loved earlier in the first round. Adams can play in a variety of roles, including the slot, but fits as a long-term starter at safety for the Raiders after averaging just eight missed tackles per season.

25. Houston Texans

Forrest Lamp, OT/G, Western Kentucky

Like Baltimore Ravens star Marshal Yanda, I think Lamp is a future All-Pro regardless of whether you play him at tackle or guard. Lamp allowed just two QB hits and two QB hurries with no sacks in the 2016 season.

26. Seattle Seahawks

Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama

If Richard Sherman is indeed on the outs in Seattle, the team definitely need to address the cornerback position early in the draft. Humphrey fits well with the Seahawks’ physical approach in coverage, and allowed just 50 percent of the passes thrown into his coverage to be caught over the past two seasons.

27. Kansas City Chiefs

Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina

Jones saw a high volume of opportunities, but made the most of them to grade well. Not only did he force 24 missed tackles as a receiver in 2016, but he also impressed at the Senior Bowl, beating some of the best cornerbacks in this draft class.

28. Dallas Cowboys

Charles Harris, Edge, Missouri

The Cowboys need pass-rush help, and Harris is the player to fix that. Harris improved as a pass-rusher every season, and was arguably the most talented player in a system that produced Shane Ray and Markus Golden. He racked up 62 total QB pressures in 2016.

29. Green Bay Packers

Tim Williams, Edge, Alabama

Williams’ lack of playing time scares me, with just 685 snaps over the past three seasons. Still, his production is undeniable, with a sack, hit, or hurry on 25.6 percent of his pass-rushing attempts in that span.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers

Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma

The Super Bowl window for the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers won’t stay open forever. Can they trust Martavis Bryant to stay on the field? Westbrook averaged 4.08 yards per route run last season, and can help the Steelers stretch the field even more.

31. Atlanta Falcons

Taco Charlton, Edge, Michigan

The Falcons need to boost their pass rush if they are to go one further and win the Super Bowl in 2017. Charlton impressed both against the run and as a pass-rusher, with 14 sacks, 19 hits, and 58 hurries over the past two seasons.

32. New Orleans Saints

Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss

I love the idea of Evan Engram landing in New Orleans and the Saints moving him around, ultimately allowing him to dominate out of the slot. A fantastic athlete, I don’t want Engram as an in-line tight end. I want him creating mismatches in the slot, where his 2.61 yards per route run average led all tight ends.

| Analyst, Lead Special Teams Analyst

Gordon has worked at PFF since 2011, and now heads up the company’s special teams analysis processes. His work in-season focuses on college football, while he is also heavily involved in PFF’s NFL draft coverage.

  • Joe Doe

    I believe three qb’s in the top ten is more realistic than the first qb falling to #25. We’ll see in a couple of weeks.

    • Matt

      I don’t believe Jacksonville or Chargers draft a QB at 4 and 6. Both could use the QBs but to draft them that early would be a waste. Jacksonville could use the QB more but why not give Bortles 1 more shot at it instead of wasting a first on a guy who will certainly be worse than Blake? Chargers have a future HOFer so instead of giving him a opportunity to be successful this year they’re gonna bring in his replacement to start grooming? I’m just not a fan of drafting a QB in round 1 and not starting them at least half the year. Giving them over 30 mill to sit a year and then only have them for 3 years is just silly IMO.

      • Joe Doe

        I have a tough time with that reasoning for a couple of reasons. First, if you don’t have a qb, you’re nothing. The final four teams last year were Brady, Big Ben, Rodgers and Prescott. 3 have been top tier guys for a while. Second, wouldn’t if you’re the Chargers or Steelers or others want to be drafting the replacement so you could possibly have a Favre to Rodgers, Montana to Young, or Romo to Prescott transition. Third, if you draft them in the first round with the current CBA you get a extra year on their rookie contracts.

        • Alan Mazz

          Brett Favre and Steve Young we’re not drafted by the Packers and 49ers, but were obtained in a trade and signed as a free agent.

  • Frank

    Leonard Fournette?

    • Leon Kalayjian

      I was looking for him too

  • Sivansh Maheshwari

    this is honestly one of the worst mocks ive ever seen

    • Alan Mazz

      Most of the mocks are a total joke. To be accurate first you have to understand the teams basic drafting philosophy, which positions they prioritize, what their needs are, and who is likely to be available when they draft. You can’t just make pick predictions willy-nilly , but must be exceedingly analytical to have a shot at being correct. I say this being a former Raiders fan who had years where he correctly predicted 4or5 of Al Davis’s draft picks. If they assigned a writer one particular division to analyze thoroughly we might see some success.

  • shaunhan murray

    This is honestly one of the best mocks I have seen, it makes little sense! The draft rarely makes sense, it never goes chalk and it never will

    • Leon Kalayjian

      Ray Lewis had some good insights it the draft and nailed some picks.

  • Tyler Hayes

    Do you pay any attention to the Bills or have you even bothered to look at their roster? Kyle Williams long-term replacement is Adolphus Washington, a 3rd round pick last year who played well as a rookie.

    Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams are on the board, and you pick a defensive tackle? (The one thing Buffalo is stacked with.)

    What an idiot.

    (They would take Davis, Thomas, Howard or Reddick before Allen too.)

    • Alan Mazz

      These draft Guru guys will never know your team as well as you do.

  • Frank Yi

    Interesting…this is the first mention I’ve seen of Westbrook or Engram in the first round of any mock draft I’ve seen thus far

  • Adam

    So at this point I assume you’re just trying to piss off Steelers fans right?

  • Christopher Darren Morgan

    Solomon Thomas to Tampa at 19. I freaking wish, no way in hell he gets out of the top 6 picks

    • Leon Kalayjian

      Said same thing when I saw him at 19

  • Thom

    Waaaait a second. You think Lamp is a future All-Pro at G/T like Yanda, but you think the Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, and Giants *should* pass on him?

    I’m also skeptical about McCaffrey’s fit in the Panthers’ run scheme.

  • J.French

    Interesting Mock Draft. Browns would land both Myles Garrett & Lenard Fournette at #33 since he was not represented anywhere else but you can believe this – there is not 1 chance in hell he would make it past the Saints at #32 unless the GM resigned the next day & moved away from Louisiana prior to his home burned to the ground.

  • Eric Horvat

    Was this put out on April Fool’s day?

  • Eric Horvat

    Wow, this draft and last year PFF claimed Browns oline was better than CRAP! ZERO credibility, do people actually PAY to get their insights?

  • Lakereric

    This is an absolutely terrible mock draft!! Wow!! I looked at PFF as the go to place for NFL info but after this…I’m rethinking that sentiment!