Donte Moncrief is primed for a true breakout in Week 7

Dan Schneier brings you his Week 7 Matchups Machine to help you pick your starters and optimize your daily fantasy football lineups.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Donte Moncrief is primed for a true breakout in Week 7

Welcome to the Matchups Machine, which narrows down ideal matchups from around the league on a weekly basis using the tools we have available at PFF, the Las Vegas odds, and insight from yours truly.

PFF has all the tools to break down each individual matchup. Do you want to know how your wide receiver is going to do? Well, if he lines up as a split end on 90 percent of his snaps, we can pinpoint which cornerback he will be matching up with for those snaps. We can also tell you how that cornerback has performed.

Of course, as was the case in the past, this column will become more accurate as the season goes on and we compile more grades for the players and get a feel for the tendencies and overall strengths/weaknesses of the 32 teams.

The goal of this column is to help you with those tricky decisions in year-long leagues, but also to help you narrow down your best options in daily fantasy leagues. You will see a mix of big-name players and fringe starters. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

Carson Palmer vs. Ravens

After hitting with 20-plus point weeks from quarterbacks the first five Matchups Machines, it all came to an end in Week 6 thanks to Sam Bradford’s atrocious individual play. Fear not — the Week 7 slate is juicy — I picked Palmer based on the matchup and the fact that it is a more contrarian play than some of the obvious choices (Philip Rivers vs. OAK, Andrew Luck vs. NO).

The only way to stop Palmer and the Cardinals offense from scoring is to generate constant pressure, and this is not something that the 2015 version of the Ravens can do. With injuries in the secondary, this is no longer a defense that can hold up in pass coverage either. On just 16 completions, Colin Kaepernick threw for 340 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens in Week 6. Palmer has a chance to top those numbers in an offense that attacks the intermediate and deep levels of the field early and often, sometimes not even bothering to run the football.

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Dan Schneier is a staff writer at PFF Fantasy and he covers the NFC East beat for FOX Sports. You can find him on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. You can also add him to your network on Google+ to find all of his past material.

Dan Schneier is a staff writer for PFF Fantasy, a former FOX Sports NFL scribe, and an auction format enthusiast.

  • Great White Hype

    The headliner that you always say is primed for a breakout always plays like crap that week. I will assume Donte Moncrief will be end this week with 5-60-0

    • Tyler

      Agreed. PFF for fantasy is such garbage. I barely look at it now and it’s only Week 7.

      • Dan Schneier

        I’m sorry you guys feel that way. With Delvin Breaux likely to shadow Hilton, the NO pass D presents an excellent opportunity for Moncrief. He will see Browner in coverage on most snaps. Browner has graded out as PFF’s worst coverage CB — when you watch him, he’s a step slow and no longer athletic enough to play press-man coverage. I think 5-60 is his floor.

        • Worldstar Police Dept.


        • Kurt Knuckle

          You’re dead on. As a huge Saints fan I’m sad to say that Browner is toast. Double team Jordan and Luck can skip the ice bath.

        • Afootballmind

          People who complain about analysts getting predictions wrong need to take a long hard look in the mirror. It’s football, there’s a ton of variance and it’s hard to predict. You should never take any of these opinions as gospel. Use them in addition to your own research and have fun. If you don’t like the analyst, rather than complain about it how about just not reading his/her work and moving on? Rant over. Nice article. Good info in here

        • ike

          thank appreciate the effort


      I disagree its not been what i expected but a few weeks this season he’s gotten it dead on.

      • Dan Schneier

        Thank you. We can’t hit every week, and Week 6 was certainly not my best, but in Week 5, for EX: Eli/Forsett/Yeldon/ARob/Fitz hit big in some juicy matchups.

        • Lux

          The trolls always come out and trash posts. Nobody knows the future, but an honest prediction on Moncrief, that makes alot of sense. Of course this could also go towards Johnson, but the past stats show Crief as a fav target of Luck, so why is this analysis so hard to understand?

    • Justin Blalock

      I think you, and the article, should note that Moncrief seems to have emerged as Indy’s preferred target when deep in the red-zone. Hilton has never been an ideal option on a short field, Luck doesn’t seem to have much rapport with Johnson, and Fleener/Allen’s role seems to have been scaled back this year. Moncrief has TDs in 4 of 6 games, all first-read targets with goal-to-go, iirc. New Orleans ranks middling in the league in TDs allowed to wide-receivers.

      Moncrief isn’t usually a confident bet for 100+ yards simply because Indy likes to spread the ball a bit, but so far he’s been a high-percentage TD threat every week, and aside from Andre’s revenge game vs the Texans (and that wasn’t even Luck throwing then, regardless), he’s been first or second in target count 5 of 6 weeks. Considering together with PFF’s grades mentioned in the article, there’s a lot to like with Moncrief this week.

      Everything’s a dice roll in this game, but you can make educated bets, obviously.

  • Anthony Ferrara

    Dan, thanks for the analysis. Can I ask why the rating is so high against Flowers? Is it because Weddle might be out, or because he got torched in one game vs. Carr last year?

    • Dan Schneier

      As far as the grade against Flowers goes, it’s a combination of things, but his grade is specifically hurt by the fact that he has allowed five touchdowns in primary coverage. Only Marcus Peters has allowed more, and unlike Flowers, Peters also has 3 interceptions, 11 passes defended and an <60% completion percentage allowed.

      • Anthony Ferrara

        thank you sir.

  • TrapMan

    Hey Dan, Some readers appreciate your work in evaluating some of the top match ups so that we do not have to – Thanks!

    • Dan Schneier

      Thank you, sir.

  • Ridgeback

    You have concerns about the Lions oline holding up against that Vikings pass rush, which could slow down Calvin?

    • Dan Schneier

      Easily my biggest worry here, and one reason I hesitated to suggest Calvin. I will say this – I thought the Lion protected much better in Week 6 vs. Pernell and company. Obviously the Vikings have a much better pass rush. But I think the line is finally playing a little better together now that Tomlinson has settled in at LG. He had his best game of the season (his career) in Week 6.