DFS Prediction Models – Part 2: Tight Ends

Dave Pratt presents a prediction model for tight ends' daily fantasy football points.

| 2 years ago

DFS Prediction Models – Part 2: Tight Ends

Unless you opt to pay a king’s ransom for Rob Gronkowski, choosing a tight end for your daily lineup can feel like buying a lottery ticket. Gronkowski is almost always worth his premium price, but it limits your options at the other positions.

The second-tier tight ends seem to always be overpriced, as they tend to be boom-or-bust. Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, and Martellus Bennett fall into this category. Considering their salaries are just below Gronkowski’s, their return on invest is often low.

The bottom-tier tight ends come at Sam’s Club prices, but you normally get what you pay for: low-to-medium points every week. When you pick up one of these guys, you are essentially playing a game of touchdown roulette. If they don’t find the end zone, you will be left with little-to-no points.

What if there was a way to identify which tight ends had a high probability of doing well in the following week? If you knew a tight end not named Gronkowski was likely to outperform his cost, would that be a game changer in constructing your daily-fantasy lineup? You bet it would!

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  • Jonathan

    Will this be a weekly column with recommendations once the season starts or will we be expected to create our own spreadsheets to perform the calculations?

    • Dave Pratt

      Jonathan, I’ll have a weekly column where I will discuss overpriced and underpriced players from all of the major DFS sites. There is no need for you to make a spreadsheet.

  • John

    Excellent stuff! Quick question – are you regressing the previous weeks game or an average of all previous games played ytd? I would think that regressions based on only previous game would leave too much bias based on prior week’s opponents.