Buy Travis Kelce, sell Vincent Jackson

Mike Tagliere goes through and analyzes the aftermath of Week 4 NFL action and tells you why you need to trade for Travis Kelce before Week 5 begins.

| 1 year ago
(AP Photo/Patric Schneider)

(AP Photo/Patric Schneider)

Buy Travis Kelce, sell Vincent Jackson


Whatever happened last week, doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen every week going forward. Repeat that to yourself over and over.

One of the biggest mistakes that fantasy owners make is falling for the darling of last week, or even last year. While we must adapt, because things can change in the NFL just like that, we mustn’t let our emotions get the best of us.

Whatever happened last week, doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen every week going forward, or even this week.Got it?

So when I tell you that you should still sell high on Devonta Freeman, I mean it. In the last two weeks, he has had 88 opportunities (carries + pass routes). He had just 28 in Week 1, when both he and Tevin Coleman were both active.

Over the last two weeks, he has scored 0.80 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, which is absurdly high. The league leader in that category last year was DeMarco Murray, who averaged 0.46 FPPO. In the first two weeks of the season, Freeman averaged 0.27 FPPO, much closer to his average last year of 0.33 FPPO.

You don’t need to worry about that, because I look into these numbers for you and find the players that you should be selling at an all-time high, rather when they are at an all-time low.

 

BUY

Travis Kelce TE, Chiefs

I didn’t think I would need to put Kelce here at the start of the season, but owners are getting flustered with his up and down play. Maybe I shouldn’t say “his” play, but rather that of his quarterback, Alex Smith.

Smith has thrown touchdowns on 4.2 percent of his attempts since coming to the Chiefs, and is sitting at 2.8 percent through four weeks. This mark is sure to move up.

After finishing as the TE2 in Week 1 with two touchdowns, Kelce has finished TE17, TE7, and then TE14 over the last three. Not exactly the best of finishes in a year where tight ends have seemingly been lackluster.

This does hold true, because despite those ups and downs, Kelce sits as the No. 2 tight end behind the almighty Rob Gronkowski. As a matter of fact, there are just three tight ends with 40 or more fantasy points in standard leagues, while there were six of them with that number at this time last year.

At a position that comes with the least amount of certainty, Kelce is a talent that you want to bet on. The 39 targets that have gone to Maclin over four games will start to sway Kelce’s way soon enough, and it may be against the Bears this week, the team that allowed Jimmy Graham a line of 7/83/1 just two weeks ago.

Averaging 2.44 yards per route run (third among tight ends), added in with the fact that Smith is due to throw a few scores, and you have the recipe for success.

Current market value = Hit or miss TE1

Actual value = Top two TE at the end of the year

 

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Mike Tagliere is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy. He's ranked as a top-six fantasy football expert twice over the last four years by FantasyPros.com.

  • John

    What about Mike Evans as a Buy Low? Do you think he’s still being held back by his hammy?

  • Kris Whitehead

    Hyde has a brutal stretch coming up with the Giants, Hawks and Rams over the next five weeks – Ravens and surging Falcons are also in there. While he might be a great player, are you ever going to feel ok starting him with the rest of the SF offense struggling around him?

  • Peter

    Do you think trading Jimmy Graham for Kelce straight up is a smart fantasy trade in a keeper league?