JVM: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

| February 27, 2014

2013-JVM-TBIn this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Jahnke Value Model” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2013. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:

• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2013

• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool

• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)

Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

Undervalued

1. Lavonte David, Outside Linebacker

When you have one of the candidates for defensive player of the year still in his rookie contract, it should be no surprise that he is one of the most undervalued players in the league. His Run Stop Percentage of 13.5% in 2013 was the second best for all 4-3 outside linebackers over the last six seasons. The only one that was better was David’s run stop percentage in 2012 of 14.7%

2013 Cap Hit: $800k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $12.7m
Value Differential: +$11.9m

2. Demar Dotson, Right Tackle

2012 was the first year Demar Dotson was a starter, and he ended up as the eighth most undervalued Buccaneer. Tampa Bay rewarded him with a four year contract extension which now looks like a great move on their part. He improved in his second year as a starter, and had the second highest PFF pass block rating for all right tackles. Now he is under contract for three more years at a cap value of $2.0m or lower in each year.

2013 Cap Hit: $2.0m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $7.1m
Value Differential: +$5.1m

3. Mike Glennon, Quarterback

Although it was a disappointing season by the Buccaneers, there is reason to believe Mike Glennon can be a decent starting NFL quarterback. From Week 9 until the end of the season, he had an overall PFF rating of +0.3 after a slow start to his NFL career. Even someone who is a slightly below average starting quarterback is worth a few million, and that is much more than Glennon made.

2013 Cap Hit: $600k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $4.2m
Value Differential: +$3.7m

4. Mike James, HB – Cap: $400k, JVM: $2.5m, Value Differential: +$2.1m

5. Gerald McCoy, DT – Cap: $10.9m, JVM: $12.7m, Value Differential: +$1.8m

6. Dekoda Watson, OLB – Cap: $600k, JVM: $2.4m, Value Differential: +$1.7m

7. Brian Leonard, HB – Cap: $700k, JVM: $2.4m, Value Differential: +$1.6m

8. Keith Tandy, S – Cap: $500k, JVM: $2.0m, Value Differential: +$1.4m

9. Kelcie McCray, S – Cap: $300k, JVM: $1.1m, Value Differential: +$800k

10. Timothy Wright, TE – Cap: $400k, JVM: $1.0m, Value Differential: +$600k

 

Overvalued

1. Josh Freeman, Quarterback

With the Buccaneers, Freeman was being paid like he was one of the above average quarterbacks in the league. Instead in the first game of the season he completed just 48.4% of his passes and it only got worse from there. After three starts he was off the roster. If there is any bright side to the situation, it’s that at least Freeman is no longer under contract for 2014 by Tampa Bay.

2013 Cap Hit: $10.4m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $200k
Value Differential: -$10.2m

2. Dashon Goldson, Safety

Tampa Bay has spent a lot of money on players from other teams. Some players such as Darrelle Revis and Vincent Jackson have lived up to their big contracts. Others like Dashon Goldson have not. In 2012 when quarterbacks threw to a player Goldson covered, they had a low passer rating of 69.1. In his first year with the Buccaneers that was up to 121.4. They are stuck with him for at least one more season, so they can only hope he has a much better sophomore season in Tampa Bay.

2013 Cap Hit: $8.7m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $700k
Value Differential: -$8.1m

3. Mike Williams, Wide Receiver*

Williams deserves a bit of a pass for only playing in six games this season, but even if he did play the entire season he was on pace to make the overvalued list. He was getting paid like one of the top ten receivers in the league, but was playing nowhere near that well. He was penalized five games in those six games, and he never surpassed 65 yards in a game. While he is under contract for the next five years, his cap number is much smaller in 2014 and it won’t reach over $8.4m again until 2018.

2013 Cap Hit: $8.4m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $300k
Value Differential: -$8.1m

4. Davin Joseph, RG – Cap: $6.0m, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: -$5.2m

5. Michael Koenen, P– Cap: $3.3m, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: $-2.4m

6. Mark Barron, S – Cap: $3.3m, JVM: $1.3m, Value Differential: -$2.0m

7. Carl Nicks, LG* – Cap: $3.1m, JVM: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$1.9m

8. Donald Penn, LT – Cap: $6.3m, JVM: $4.6m, Value Differential: -$1.7m

9. Adrian Clayborn, DE – Cap: $2.2m, JVM: $700k, Value Differential: -$1.5m

10. Jeremy Zuttah, C – Cap: $4.4m, JVM: $3.1m, Value Differential: -$1.3m

 

Summary – Team Value Differential: -$19.1m

The Buccaneers have one of the worst team value differentials, but it shouldn’t be that surprising. You could blame the entire differential on Freeman as well as high paid offensive players who were hurt. It is surprising that a team that has so much invested in their top few players are for the most part wisely spending that money. However it is concerning that four of the five projected starters on the offensive line are amongst the ten most overvalued Buccaneers.

 

Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke

 

Comments (4)

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  1. Jeff says:

    Where does Darrelle MEvis rank on this list?… just curious. Is a cornerback really overvalued at $16million?

    • Hannah Hayes says:

      Apparently not by PFF standards. I can’t imagine how he isn’t.

    • Hannah Hayes says:

      Now that I am thinking about it, maybe since he was the highest graded and highest paid CB, he couldn’t be over or under per value, could he?

      If he shows up on the JVM chart for CBs as overvalued, it would really hurt this model.

  2. suprised says:

    A 49er safety not an all pro w/o Patrick Willis/Bowman/Smith twins/Ahmad ?