Backs & Fronts – Week 9

Scott Spratt uses FAYE, a measure of running back effectiveness relative to defensive fronts faced, to evaluate the running back performances in Week 8.

| 2 years ago
mark-ingram

Backs & Fronts – Week 9


mark-ingramBefore the season, I introduced a pair of new statistics, front-adjusted yards over expectation (FAYE) and front-adjusted yards over expectation per carry (FAYE/C). The idea behind them is simple. Running backs perform better when there are fewer defenders in the box. That means that backs who play for teams who consistently see fewer than seven men in the box have a nice advantage. It also means that not every back with an above-average YPC mark is an above-average back.

Mark Ingram provided the most visible FAYE success during the Saints’ Sunday night victory over the Packers, but there were several other backs with important good and bad performances tucked into some of the less-compelling early games.

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Scott Spratt was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He also writes for RotoGraphs and contributes to ESPN Insider as a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt

  • beersofatvsunday

    You mentioned Bears as the 10th-best run defense (+15.6). Makes me wonder how a players FAYE might change against top defenses compared to bottom. Also if the run blocking scores are a factor. Is Murray that good or is his line that good?

  • Dan

    Amazing stat but, If you are accounting for defensive fronts in this metic, why do you not also account for the offensive line’s performance? The argument could be made that blocking has more impact on the average RB’s rate of success, so isn’t OLine performance just as relevant when analyzing how any given RB performs (excluding only the all-time greats that create their own space i.e. Barry Sanders)? My argument would then conclude with “Wouldn’t McCoy be a guy you would WANT to target given the 2 All-Pro blockers set to return soon, and the semi-soft schedule?”