AFC West Fantasy Review

| 4 years ago

AFC West Fantasy Review

There are different stats I like to look at when looking back at the season. As with any stats, some are limited by injuries, sample size, or just regular prejudice. Each stat will be the same throughout the series, but putting together a comprehensive review would take forever and frankly would be 400 pages long. Luckily for you, I have split up each one into the most important (and unusual) stats to compare within each division.

With the majority of free agency settled, the players have been moved into the appropriate divisions. Player movement is included in the notes and commentary follows each table. I have included any relevant players, based on team changes and popular “sleeper” candidates. Stats are based on PPR (points per reception).



The Carson Palmer experiment is finally over in Oakland and has moved on to a quarterback wasteland in Arizona. Matt Flynn, former backup to Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, gets a new chance to start for the Raiders. Alex Smith slides east from San Francisco to Kansas City as Matt Cassel gets the figurative boot.



Points Per Drop Back

Points Per Game

Peyton Manning

0.499 (8th)

19.00 (6th)

Philip Rivers

0.341 (26th)

12.50 (24th)

Alex Smith

.449 (11th)

11.50 (26th)

Peyton Manning with four neck surgeries is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game. His dynasty value is a little hard to quantify, but his redraft value is still outstanding given his weapons and the depth of the position this year. Add Wes Welker to his receiving corps and Manning is going to be hard to stop in real life or fantasy. Philip Rivers hasn’t put together a solid 16 games since 2010, and some (including me) have wondered whether new coach Mike McCoy can right Rivers the way he did the Broncos with Tebow then Manning. Alex Smith, the “game manager”, gets quarterback guru Andy Reid. If any current coach in the NFL can get Alex Smith to put up fantasy-starting numbers, it is Andy Reid.


Running Back

Rashad Jennings joins the Raiders while Mike Goodson moves across the country to the New York Jets.



Touches/Missed Tackle

Carries/15y+ Run

Points Per Snap

Points Per Touch

Willis McGahee

10.2 (82nd)

20.9 (41st)

0.339 (38th)

0.70 (75th)

Ronnie Hillman

11.9 (92nd)

21.3 (46th)

0.243 (90th)

0.54 (107th)

Jamaal Charles

13.3 (100th)

15.0 (22nd)

0.396 (22nd)

0.74 (61st)

Darren McFadden

11.2 (89th)

24.0 (56th)

0.254 (86th)

0.60 (95th)

Ryan Mathews

7.2 (53th)

92.0 (95th)

0.329 (46th)

0.61 (92nd)

Lost in the Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson hype for MVP/Comeback Player of the Year was Jamaal Charles, fresh off a torn ACL, rushed for 1509 yards (fourth most overall). With no real quarterback play, he rushed for 5.3 yards a carry but only five touchdowns. Alex Smith and Andy Reid will make that change without a doubt, also getting Charles more involved in the passing game. Charles will be my top overall ranked player for redrafts this fall.

Willis McGahee and Ronnie Hillman left something to be desired as neither topped 4.4 yards per carry. Hillman could see the field more if he learns to pass protect better, since this is Manning’s team and will go as far as he does. Unless McGahee is released and the Broncos draft a running back, it will be tough to draft either come draft day. Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews had nothing to write home about, unless you write home about injuries.


Wide Receiver

I would argue the Wes Welker signing was the second biggest wide receiver switch behind Mike Wallace to Miami. Donnie Avery joins the Chiefs from the Colts and Darrius Heyward-Bey  takes Avery’s place in Indianapolis.



Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Demaryius Thomas

0.284 (17th)

2.83 (26th)

Eric Decker

0.251 (32nd)

2.78 (33rd)

Wes Welker

0.268 (25th)

2.19 (91st)

Donnie Avery

0.150 (93rd)

2.18 (94th)

Dwayne Bowe

0.208 (50th)

2.42 (70th)

Denarius Moore

0.205 (55th)

2.78 (34th)

Rod Streater

0.194 (61st)

2.51 (63rd)

Danario Alexander

0.290 (16th)

3.62 (1st)

Malcom Floyd

0.191 (64th)

2.89 (21st)

Trying to figure out which Denver wide receiver to start each week is going to be like figuring out what your girlfriend/wife/mother-in-law meant by “I’m fine”. This is especially true for those who participate in day gaming (if you are unfamiliar with day gaming, check back with PFF closer to the season for hints and value plays). Danario Alexander played well once given a shot, as evidenced by his top ranking in points per target. If his knees hold up he easily has a chance to be a top wide receiver in 2013. Denarius Moore figures to get a lot of garbage-time points as the Raiders keep their rebuilding program on track. Donnie Avery’s signing in Kansas City raises concerns about Jonathan Baldwin and the organization’s faith in him. Dwayne Bowe has the talent to be a top wide receiver and could easily be a value with Alex Smith and Andy Reid in town.


Tight End

Anthony Fasano comes to Kansas City from Miami and Brandon Myers leaves Oakland for the Giants.



Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Jacob Tamme

0.219 (7th)

2.26 (30th)

Tony Moeaki

0.090 (43rd)

2.28 (29th)

Anthony Fasano

0.113 (39th)

2.54 (10th)

Antonio Gates

0.163 (21st)

2.68 (6th)

This season Antonio Gates might be the only tight end from the AFC West worth drafting. Jacob Tamme is splitting time with Joel Dreessen (not to mention Welker now). Anthony Fasano and Tony Moeaki are in a tight-end-by-committee situation. David Ausberry figures to be the tight end in Oakland, who is considered to be talented but raw. It will be hard to trust anyone other than Gates week in and week out during the season. Jacob Tamme did well on the field, but there are just too many talented receivers on the field to rely on.



Just kidding. But yes, kickers are people too.


Allen has lots of interesting stats and somewhat funny jokes on Twitter: @Allen_Bassett … and don’t forget the main PFF Fantasy feed: @PFF_Fantasy


Business Consultant working in Albuquerque, NM (yes, that's a state). I love football and I love statistics.

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