AFC South Fantasy Review

| 4 years ago
T.Y. Hilton, Coty Sensabaugh

AFC South Fantasy Review


There are different stats I like to look at when looking back at the season. As with any stats, some are limited by injuries, sample size, or just regular prejudice. Each stat will be the same throughout the series, but putting together a comprehensive review would take forever and frankly would be 400 pages long. Luckily for you, I have split up each one into the most important (and unusual) stats to compare within each division.

With the majority of free agency settled, the players have been moved into the appropriate divisions. Player movement is included in the notes and commentary follows each table. I have included any relevant players, based on team changes and popular “sleeper” candidates. Stats are based on PPR (points per reception). The number in parentheses is the player’s overall position rank for that category.

 

Quarterback

How Blaine Gabbert continues to get a shot as a starting quarterback is as baffling as Ke$ha having a music career. Matt Hasselbeck left Tennessee for Indianapolis to further tutor Andrew Luck so Jake Locker will have to stay healthy for 16 games.

Player

Points Per Drop Back

Points Per Game

Matt Schaub

0.380 (19th)

13.63 (21st)

Andrew Luck

0.376 (20th)

16.50 (10th)

Chad Henne

0.301 (33rd)

10.50 (32nd)

Blaine Gabbert

0.282 (34th)

8.70 (35th)

Jake Locker

0.335 (28th)

11.27 (28th)

 

Chad Henne’s second half outscored Blaine Gabbert’s first half by 23 fantasy points. That is roughly 3 points per game. If you remove Henne’s two games in which he wasn’t the starter, his points per game jumps up to 13.13, which puts him in QB2 range at 23rd overall. Andrew Luck lost Donnie Avery, but T.Y. Hilton should cover his and Avery’s roles going forward (fantasy-wise). Jake Locker will have to take the next step this year in order to keep his job. After gracing many sleeper lists last summer, maybe a little less pressure will do him well.

 

Running Backs

Rashad Jennings left Jacksonville for Oakland and Shonn Greene joins the Titans behind Chris Johnson. Why the Titans wanted Greene, I’m not sure. Maybe the Titans are starting to lose faith in Chris Johnson.

 

Player

Touches/Missed Tackle

Carries/15y+ Run

Points Per Snap

Points Per Touch

Ben Tate

6.9 (16th)

32.5 (76th)

0.371 (25th)

0.71 (72nd)

Arian Foster

12.2 (93rd)

20.6 (39th)

0.354 (33rd)

0.77 (53rd)

Jake Ballard

6.5 (39th)

21.1 (45th)

0.213 (99th)

0.55 (105th)

Maurice Jones-Drew

7.1 (51st)

17.2 (31st)

0.301 (59th)

0.74 (59th)

Shonn Greene

18.4 (111th)

39.4 (83rd)

0.313 (49th)

0.62 (88th)

Chris Johnson

10.8 (87th)

19.7 (36th)

0.257 (84th)

0.69 (80th)

 

To say there will be many debates centered on Arian Foster this summer will be an understatement. The anti-Arian Foster movement started around week 5 last year, which is something I hope to write about shortly. But until then, his in-depth stats show Foster is purely a volume play, which may or may not be too risky for a top five pick. Ben Tate, despite battling injuries, posted a touches per missed tackle rate of roughly half of Arian Foster, a difference of 76 spots. Maurice Jones-Drew took a step back after an attempted holdout and subsequent injuries, which clearly shows. Chris Johnson continued his struggles but actually got slightly better as the season went on. If Jake Locker plays better, it could help whatever it is Chris Johnson is focusing on.

 

Wide Receivers

Donnie Avery and Kevin Walter have left the Colts and Texans respectively. Laurent Robinson was released after battling concussions this past year. Darrius Heyward-Bey joins the Colts after being cut from the Raiders.

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Andre Johnson

0.297 (13th)

2.45 (66th)

T.Y. Hilton

0.265 (27th)

3.02 (15th)

Reggie Wayne

0.247 (33rd)

2.34 (78th)

Darrius Heyward-Bey

0.161 (85th)

2.83 (25th)

Cecil Shorts III

0.293 (15th)

3.04 (13th)

Justin Blackmon

0.186 (70th)

2.54 (59th)

Kenny Britt

0.208 (48th)

2.46 (64th)

Kendall Wright

0.261 (30th)

2.13 (95th)

 

T.Y. Hilton will grace many of my rosters this year with the prospects of both Hilton and Andrew Luck getting better and increasing their chemistry. Ranking at 15th in points per target as a rookie with a rookie quarterback is an excellent start. Since Avery moved on to Kansas City, Hilton is figured to see more targets and less coverage as long as Reggie Wayne is on the field. Cecil Shorts III actually beat Hilton in points per target, but his 2013 season will depend on staying healthy and how much Justin Blackmon improves. There is no question Shorts was the better receiver last year.

 

Tight Ends

The starters remain the same, but James Casey, the Texans jack-of-all-trades guy, moved on to Philadelphia. Delanie Walker left San Francisco for the Titans after they lost Jared Cook to St. Louis.

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Owen Daniels

0.192 (12th)

2.49 (16th)

Dwayne Allen

0.127 (36th)

2.45 (17th)

Colby Fleener

0.143 (27th)

2.28 (28th)

Marcedes Lewis

0.153 (24th)

2.24 (31st)

Delanie Walker

0.128 (35th)

2.51 (12th)

 

Owen Daniels has the best shot of improvement now that Joel Dreessen and James Casey are not on the team to compete for snaps with. Daniels could be a draft-day steal given his numbers when on the field and opposing defenses still needing to focus on the running game and Andre Johnson. Colby Fleener will need to take the next step in order to justify his draft slot over teammate Dwayne Allen. Delanie Walker had a nice points per target rank, but his alarmingly high drop rate could turn Locker off to looking his way with his own job on the line.

 

Kickers

Just kidding. But yes, kickers are people too.

 

Allen has lots of interesting stats and somewhat funny jokes on Twitter: @Allen_Bassett … and don’t forget the main PFF Fantasy feed: @PFF_Fantasy

 



Business Consultant working in Albuquerque, NM (yes, that's a state). I love football and I love statistics.

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