AFC East Fantasy Review

| 4 years ago
Lamar Miller

AFC East Fantasy Review


There are different stats I like to look at when looking back at the season. As with any stats, some are limited by injuries, sample size, or just regular prejudice. Each stat will be the same throughout the series, but putting together a comprehensive review would take forever and frankly would be 400 pages long. Luckily for you, I have split up each one into the most important (and unusual) stats to compare within each division.

With the majority of free agency settled, the players have been moved into the appropriate divisions. Player movement is included in the notes and commentary follows each table. I have included any relevant players based on team changes and popular “sleeper” candidates. Stats are based on PPR (points per reception).

 

Quarterback

Tom Brady is the class of this division. I expect big things out of Ryan Tannehill with Mike Wallace in town. Points per snap as it relates to quarterbacks is useless because a strong running back such as Adrian Peterson will affect the numbers against that quarterback. Using PFF’s dropback rate, we have a better idea of what the quarterback did while attempting to gain fantasy points. Mark Sanchez might not be living down the infamous “butt fumble” anytime soon, but his numbers don’t get much better. Kevin Kolb joins Buffalo to “win a Super Bowl.”

Player

Points Per Dropback

Points Per Game

Kevin Kolb

0.369 (21st)

13.33 (22nd)

Ryan Tannehill

0.321 (31st)

10.69 (30th)

Tom Brady

0.492 (9th)

20.56 (3rd)

Mark Sanchez

0.224 (38th)

7.40 (38th)

 

There is no surprise Tom Brady leads both categories. Ranking ninth in points per dropback, however, is a little concerning for a quarterback that was drafted consistently in the top three of the position. Kevin Kolb’s numbers may not look as bad as you’d think, but remember he had Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Steve Johnson is no Fitzgerald. Ryan Tannehill comes in third, but when your biggest weapon is Brian Hartline (no offense, Mr. Hartline), not much can be expected. Add Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller to the mix, and Tannehill is a prime QB2 candidate during drafts this summer.

 

Running Backs

The C.J. Spiller lovefest reminds me a great deal of the Jamaal Charles lovefest in Kansas City just before he broke out as an elite running back. All the metrics from Spiller scream “elite,” but he just never got the reps to fully prove it. While Kevin Kolb won’t keep opposing defenses from stacking the box with defenders, Spiller will get his chance to prove what he can do. Reggie Bush left town for greener pastures, or whatever Detroit has nowadays. Mike Goodson has switched coasts to New York, and Danny Woodhead split for San Diego. Even though Goodson isn’t the sexy name floating around fantasy circles, you should give him a second look.

Player

Touches/Missed Tackle

Carries/15y+ Run

Points Per Snap

Points Per Touch

C.J. Spiller

3.8 (6th)

12.9 (12th)

0.442 (13th)

1.03 (19th)

Lamar Miller

8.1 (63rd)

12.8 (11th)

0.284 (70th)

0.73 (67th)

Shane Vereen

10.0 (80th)

62.0 (91st)

0.444 (11th)

1.03 (20th)

Stevan Ridley

10.2 (83rd)

18.1 (33rd)

0.360 (31st)

0.68 (82nd)

Mike Goodson

3.9 (7th)

11.7 (8th)

0.439 (14th)

1.25 (8th)

 

If you were basing your draft sheet strictly on these numbers, you’d have Mike Goodson ranked in the first three rounds. Maybe that is why I like him so much. If you are wrong on Spiller or Ridley and spend a first- and second-round pick on them, respectively, you will have a hard time catching up to other rosters. Goodson will be super cheap with just as high a ceiling. With Woodhead gone in New England, no one knows what the timeshare will be and who will play on what downs. Anyone other than Bill Belichick or his barber are just guessing. Lamar Miller will grace many sleeper lists this summer given the opportunity ahead of him. His explosiveness, as shown in his long runs per carries ranking, will certainly help his cause (and Tannehill’s).

 

Wide Receivers

I have chosen only two stats for wide receivers because they show how much each player was used and what they did with their catchable targets (another reason to get PFF’s signature stats!). The AFC East was busy with big-name changes at wide receiver with Mike Wallace signing in Miami, Brandon Lloyd being released, Wes Welker bolting for Denver, and Danny Amendola joining the fray in New England.

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Steve Johnson

0.228 (38th)

2.44 (67th)

Mike Wallace

0.231 (37th)

2.81 (29th)

Danny Amendola

0.281 (18th)

2.30 (85th)

Santonio Holmes

0.280 (19th)

2.53 (62nd)

Jeremy Kerley

0.223 (39th)

2.38 (76th)

Stephen Hill

0.152 (90th)

2.30 (87th)

 

Despite having the high-powered Patriots offense, the AFC East came up quite average in these two categories. Wallace takes the top spot in points per target, but those were mostly from Ben Roethlisberger. Amendola was an important part of the Rams offense, but his points-per-target number worries me about what will happen in New England as his value is dictated by volume. Some might think he simply fits right into Welker’s old role, but remember Bill Belichick hates you and doesn’t care about your fantasy football team. The Jets wide receiver corps has a little talent, but until they get a better quarterback, it might be best to avoid paying a high price for any of the three here.

 

Tight Ends

Dustin Keller switches teams in the same division and Jeff Cumberland gets an opportunity in New York. For the same reasons as wide receivers, these two stats were chosen because of the usage on their team while on the field and what they did with their targets. Points per catchable target is more important since some tight ends are on the field blocking more than others.

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Scott Chandler

0.183 (14th)

2.92 (3rd)

Rob Gronkowski

0.272 (2nd)

3.26 (2nd)

Aaron Hernandez

0.227 (6th)

2.13 (37th)

Dustin Keller

0.172 (18th)

2.39 (23rd)

Jeff Cumberland

0.136 (30th)

2.76 (5th)

 

By far the most surprising stat is Aaron Hernandez’s points per catchable target. Thirty-seventh is awfully low considering he has one of the best quarterbacks in the game. This could increase with Welker’s departure, but like I keep saying, we just don’t know what Belichick will do. Cumberland used his opportunity with Keller’s injury well, which is evidenced by his fifth place in points per target overall. Cumberland will go undrafted in most leagues, so keep an eye on his usage in the preseason and first couple of weeks. If he starts off well, he would be a prime candidate to pair with a starter of yours to upgrade the position.

 

Kickers

Just kidding. But yes, kickers are people too.

 

Allen has lots of interesting stats and somewhat funny jokes on Twitter: @Allen_Bassett … and don’t forget the main PFF Fantasy feed: @PFF_Fantasy

 



Business Consultant working in Albuquerque, NM (yes, that's a state). I love football and I love statistics.

Comments are closed.