Advanced Targets – Week 13

| 4 years ago
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Advanced Targets – Week 13


It was a week to channel Charles Dickens for fantasy owners. For those who owned players performing on Detroit’s Ford Field, it was the best of times (Ryan Broyles’ owners excluded). For those who needed a big Thursday night performance from Matt Ryan and Drew Brees in the Shootout That Wasn’t, it was the worst.

Nineteen receivers posted double digit targets in Week 13, so we’ll start with those who made the most of their opportunities. Megatron continues to shred any and all types of coverage and is now on pace to break Jerry Rice’s single-season yardage record. It’s unfortunate Jim Schwartz seems to be some sort of bizarre Andy Reid (game management) and Norv Turner (leadership) hybrid, because Calvin Johnson deserves to be 1B to J.J. Watt’s 1A in the MVP discussion. He’s unlikely to earn many votes on a Lions team that may be the most talented in all of football but finds new ways to lose every week.

Full Blown Domination Mode
Snaps Targets Routes TA/SN TA/PR PR/SN YPRR
 Calvin Johnson 78 21 46 0.27 0.46 0.59 3.72
 Wes Welker 77 18 42 0.23 0.43 0.55 2.45
 A.J. Green 77 13 39 0.17 0.33 0.51 2.18
 Chris Givens 68 13 40 0.19 0.33 0.59 2.30
 Anquan Boldin 58 12 35 0.21 0.34 0.60 2.31
 Brandon Marshall 58 12 29 0.21 0.41 0.50 5.69
 Cecil Shorts 55 11 32 0.20 0.34 0.58 2.41
 Donnie Avery 78 11 59 0.14 0.19 0.76 1.54
 Mike A. Williams 59 11 38 0.19 0.29 0.64 2.45
 Pierre Garcon 31 11 17 0.35 0.65 0.55 6.24
 Demaryius Thomas 72 10 36 0.14 0.28 0.50 2.75
 Lance Moore 49 10 39 0.20 0.26 0.80 3.15
 Michael Crabtree 48 10 33 0.21 0.30 0.69 3.06

 

Brandon Marshall and Pierre Garcon saw only 29 and 17 routes respectively, but target rates of 41% and 65% allowed them to blow past the 5.0 yards per route barrier. Garcon continues to be a risky play for a wide variety of reasons, but RG3 proves weekly that he’s already among the top couple of quarterbacks in the game.

Advanced Targets promoted Chris Givens a week ago, and he’s becoming an increasingly interesting player. Givens is a speed guy who has seen 17 targets 20-plus yards down the field, but he now also has 11 targets behind the line of scrimmage. That’s a recipe for both explosiveness and consistency. He immediately becomes a Top 20 wide receiver play down the stretch.

Donnie Avery and Michael Crabtree are weekly nightmares in the start/sit department albeit for opposite reasons. Crabtree is actually ninth at the position in fantasy points per snap, but his snap totals are both low and inconsistent. He’s only played in 75% of the team snaps twice this season. Avery is a terrible reality player who ranks 58th in yards per route (1.34), but the miraculous play of Andrew Luck makes him a difficult man to bench. He ranks fourth overall in pass routes (505) and is a potential 25-point scorer in any given week.

High Profile Ineffectiveness
  Snaps Targets Routes TA/SN TA/PR PR/SN YPRR
 Marques Colston 69 11 48 0.16 0.23 0.70 1.48
 Hakeem Nicks 61 10 32 0.16 0.31 0.52 1.34
 Denarius Moore 47 8 31 0.17 0.26 0.66 1.00
 Julio Jones 47 8 34 0.17 0.24 0.72 1.41
 Kenny Britt 67 8 48 0.12 0.17 0.72 0.83
 Mike Wallace 41 8 26 0.20 0.31 0.63 1.69
 Reggie Wayne 79 8 59 0.10 0.14 0.75 0.86
 Torrey Smith 61 8 36 0.13 0.22 0.59 0.92
 Larry Fitzgerald 54 6 33 0.11 0.18 0.61 0.70
 Justin Blackmon 67 6 46 0.09 0.13 0.69 0.20
 Jeremy Maclin 62 5 33 0.08 0.15 0.53 1.15

 

Advanced Targets has been concerned about the fantasy viability of Denarius Moore and Torrey Smith for weeks now, and we saw the situation reach its zenith with Moore getting benched in Week 13. Moore’s catch rate is down to 45%, and he’s only hauled in four of his last 19 targets. Smith is just marginally better, having caught only 40% of his targets since Week 8.

Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt continue to post enigmatic lines during their injury-riddled seasons. They now present tricky start/sit decisions for fantasy owners who’ve made the tournament. Despite another week of poor performance, their peripherals make them difficult to bench. Nicks was targeted on 31% of his routes in Week 13 and sports a solid 1.8 yards per route on the season. Britt only lassoed two of his eight targets on Sunday but caught a touchdown for the second straight week. He seems like a renewed focal point in the Titans offense.

Mike Wallace saw his snaps cut in a Mike Tomlin motivational ploy, but that only meant his routes per snap and targets per route increased. With Roethlisberger returning, he regains his status as a WR3.

Deep League Starts for Week 14
  Snaps Targets Routes TA/SN TA/PR PR/SN YPRR
 T.Y. Hilton 70 12 53 0.17 0.23 0.76 1.89
 Kendall Wright 55 10 42 0.18 0.24 0.76 1.86
 Josh Gordon 65 7 35 0.11 0.20 0.54 3.31
 Andrew Hawkins 56 7 33 0.13 0.21 0.59 1.42
 Golden Tate 70 6 40 0.09 0.15 0.57 2.40

 

T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, and Golden Tate have played well enough of late that they will see plenty of Week 14 starting lineups even in shallow leagues. All of these players saw at least 30 routes, and all save Tate sported good peripherals. The Golden Child requires explosive plays to overcome his role in the Seahawks offense, but he’s proving capable of those on a weekly basis. He’s on a streak of four consecutive games with a PFF rating of +1.0 or higher and has scored four touchdowns in that span.

Gordon recorded his first 100-yard game on Sunday, but it was his third straight with at least six targets, four catches, and 50 yards.

 

The Rest
  Snaps Targets Routes TA/SN TA/PR PR/SN YPRR
 Brian Hartline 57 10 34 0.18 0.29 0.60 2.47
 Juron Criner 34 10 31 0.29 0.32 0.91 0.84
 Antonio Brown 52 9 33 0.17 0.27 0.63 1.76
 Danario Alexander 67 8 52 0.12 0.15 0.78 1.96
 Michael Floyd 51 8 34 0.16 0.24 0.67 0.65
 Sidney Rice 71 8 41 0.11 0.20 0.58 2.41
 Steve L. Smith 51 8 31 0.16 0.26 0.61 3.87
 Victor Cruz 62 8 33 0.13 0.24 0.53 3.15
 Dwayne Bowe 55 7 23 0.13 0.30 0.42 2.78
 Malcom Floyd 69 7 53 0.10 0.13 0.77 1.15
 Stephen Hill 49 7 27 0.14 0.26 0.55 1.48
 Vincent Jackson 66 7 41 0.11 0.17 0.62 1.34
 Andre Johnson 71 6 35 0.08 0.17 0.49 1.6
 Dez Bryant 55 6 29 0.11 0.21 0.53 3.38
 Emmanuel Sanders 49 6 29 0.12 0.21 0.59 2.07
 Greg Jennings 56 6 33 0.11 0.18 0.59 1.39
 Jeremy Kerley 50 6 29 0.12 0.21 0.58 1.28
 Kevin Elliott 31 6 25 0.19 0.24 0.81 0.96
 Mario Manningham 28 6 24 0.21 0.25 0.86 1.54
 Nate Washington 69 6 51 0.09 0.12 0.74 1.88
 Randall Cobb 62 6 33 0.10 0.18 0.53 1.88
 Roddy White 59 6 33 0.10 0.18 0.56 0.61
 Tiquan Underwood 45 6 31 0.13 0.19 0.69 0.39
 Darrius Heyward-Bey 59 5 42 0.08 0.12 0.71 0.95
 Davone Bess 60 5 35 0.08 0.14 0.58 0.37
 Greg Little 59 5 31 0.08 0.16 0.53 1.55
 Jerome Simpson 39 5 24 0.13 0.21 0.62 1.04
 Jordan Shipley 44 5 33 0.11 0.15 0.75 0.58
 Kevin Walter 64 5 32 0.08 0.16 0.50 1.03
 Matt Willis 23 5 13 0.22 0.38 0.57 1.69
 Riley Cooper 63 5 34 0.08 0.15 0.54 0.91
 Steve Johnson 43 5 18 0.12 0.28 0.42 1
 Austin Pettis 50 4 33 0.08 0.12 0.66 0.36
 Brandon LaFell 26 4 16 0.15 0.25 0.62 0.88
 Chaz Schilens 40 4 17 0.10 0.24 0.43 0.29
 Doug Baldwin 37 4 22 0.11 0.18 0.59 2.09
 Early Doucet 31 4 25 0.13 0.16 0.81 0.52
 Jason Avant 52 4 26 0.08 0.15 0.50 3.04
 Josh Morgan 33 4 13 0.12 0.31 0.39 1.31
 LaVon Brazill 18 4 17 0.22 0.24 0.94 2.47
 Mike Thomas 71 4 42 0.06 0.10 0.59 -0.02
 Randy Moss 31 4 13 0.13 0.31 0.42 2.31
 Rod Streater 39 4 34 0.10 0.12 0.87 2.82
 Damian Williams 14 3 10 0.21 0.30 0.71 2.4
 Devery Henderson 57 3 36 0.05 0.08 0.63 0
 Earl Bennett 19 3 13 0.16 0.23 0.68 0.92
 Jacoby Jones 11 3 8 0.27 0.38 0.73 0.63
 Julian Edelman 50 3 33 0.06 0.09 0.66 0.39
 Marvin Jones 69 3 40 0.04 0.08 0.58 0.5
 Michael Jenkins 42 3 27 0.07 0.11 0.64 0
 Brad Smith 36 2 15 0.06 0.13 0.42 0.8
 Braylon Edwards 14 2 13 0.14 0.15 0.93 0
 Brian Quick 11 2 7 0.18 0.29 0.64 0.43
 Cole Beasley 4 2 3 0.50 0.67 0.75 4.33
 Dexter McCluster 22 2 14 0.09 0.14 0.64 1.14
 Eric Decker 68 2 37 0.03 0.05 0.54 0.46
 Eric Weems 38 2 17 0.05 0.12 0.45 1.06
 Harry Douglas 24 2 18 0.08 0.11 0.75 0
 James Jones 83 2 40 0.02 0.05 0.48 1
 Joe Morgan 24 2 13 0.08 0.15 0.54 2.92
 Jonathan Baldwin 21 2 11 0.10 0.18 0.52 3.36
 Keshawn Martin 19 2 12 0.11 0.17 0.63 0
 Kevin Ogletree 22 2 14 0.09 0.14 0.64 0.57
 Louis Murphy 32 2 18 0.06 0.11 0.56 0.44
 Miles Austin 45 2 25 0.04 0.08 0.56 1.84
 Mohamed Massaquoi 21 2 15 0.10 0.13 0.71 4
 Rishard Matthews 26 2 18 0.08 0.11 0.69 1.56
 Rueben Randle 44 2 26 0.05 0.08 0.59 0.5
 Steve Smith 5 2 5 0.40 0.40 1.00 1.2
 T.J. Graham 54 2 16 0.04 0.13 0.30 3.38
 Armanti Edwards 24 1 17 0.04 0.06 0.71 0.65
 Brandon Lloyd 60 1 33 0.02 0.03 0.55 0.3
 Damaris Johnson 5 1 5 0.20 0.20 1.00 2.6
 Derek Hagan 11 1 9 0.09 0.11 0.82 0.67
 Devin Aromashodu 11 1 6 0.09 0.17 0.55 0
 Dwayne Harris 11 1 6 0.09 0.17 0.55 1.83
 Jamar Newsome 27 1 8 0.04 0.13 0.30 0.5
 Jarius Wright 27 1 20 0.04 0.05 0.74 0.65
 Jarrett Boykin 4 1 1 0.25 1.00 0.25 0
 Jerrel Jernigan 6 1 3 0.17 0.33 0.50 3
 Joe Adams 3 1 2 0.33 0.50 0.67 3.5
 Jordy Nelson 11 1 6 0.09 0.17 0.55 1.67
 Leonard Hankerson 35 1 11 0.03 0.09 0.31 1.27
 Lestar Jean 9 1 4 0.11 0.25 0.44 13.5
 Ryan Broyles 9 1 5 0.11 0.20 0.56 0.6
 Ryan Whalen 8 1 7 0.13 0.14 0.88 1.43
 Stephen Burton 12 1 4 0.08 0.25 0.33 0
 Tandon Doss 8 1 7 0.13 0.14 0.88 0
 Ted Ginn 15 1 9 0.07 0.11 0.60 0.11
 Travis Benjamin 18 1 12 0.06 0.08 0.67 0.5

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