A few days ago, I introduced opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD).
In case you missed it, “oTD” is a replacement for oft-referred-to, but flawed redzone statistics. By weighting the distance the player has to travel to score a touchdown, we can determine an opportunity-based touchdown number for said player. Although “oTD” aligns near-perfectly with touchdowns, it’s important to remember that it’s a completely opportunity-based statistic. Player talent, offensive line skill, etc. are completely irrelevant. It’s the touchdown total a player would be expected to have with the same number of carries, but under league-average circumstances otherwise.
The focus in the first article was receiving touchdowns. Today, I’ll be flipping over to the running game.
My first step here was to determine how often touchdowns are scored on carries from each yard line. Note that this project is focused only on carries by running backs lined up in the backfield. All quarterback runs are eliminated so as to not inflate or deflate our numbers. End-arounds are also eliminated.
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Our first chart shows each of the 99 yard markers and shows the touchdown rates when a run play begins at each.
A quick glance down the chart should make it clear why simply referring to redzone carries is silly. We see that players carrying the ball inside the five-yard line have a major advantage. In fact, over half of carries from the one-yard line result in a score and over one quarter of carries from the four-yard line put six points on the scoreboard.
Outside of four yards, however, we see a significant drop in touchdowns. We see a range of 5.0 percent to 15.7 percent on carries between five and 13 yards out of the endzone. From 14 yards out, no yard marker has a TD rate higher than 4.4 percent and the overall scoring rate is 0.7 percent.
Needless to say, counting a carry from the 14-yard line (3.8 percent success) and one-yard line (52.8 percent) exactly the same—which is exactly what the “redzone carry” stat does—makes no sense.
The next step in our process is to weight each carry from the last five NFL seasons. From there, we can determine our “oTD” for each player. The next chart includes six columns. The first includes each player who saw at least one carry during the 2012 regular season. The next is the total number of carries for each player. The third column is “rADEZ,” which is the average distance from the endzone the player was on his 2012 carries. Note that rADEZ is here only for informational purposes and has zero impact on the final three columns. The final three columns will be our main focus. We have actual touchdowns, “oTD,” and the difference between the two.
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This chart is sorted by “oTD.” Remember, “oTD” is an adjusted touchdown number based on two items: total carries and the line of scrimmage on each carry. There is no differentiating an elite and a poor player. There’s no factor for a great offensive line or a bad one. Remember, we’re focusing on a replacement for redzone carry data, which also takes neither of those items into account. This stat is completely related to carry volume and scoring opportunity based on the distance from the endzone. That’s it.
Arian Foster led all backs in rushing touchdowns last season. He also tops our oTD chart. In fact, the numbers say he had an opportunity to score even more than he did (+0.7). Foster scored six of his touchdowns from one yard out (on 11 tries) and another five from within four yards of the endzone. Interestingly, his longest scores were each from a similar range: 13, 13, and 14 yards out. Foster was inside the five-yard line on a whopping 26 of his carries last season.
It may surprise you to know that Stevan Ridley was on the field for fewer than half of New England’s offensive snaps last season. That didn’t stop him from handling a majority of the team’s goal line carries, however. Ridley scored 12 touchdowns and had an opportunity for a bit more (12.3). Of those 12 scores, only three came from one yard out (on 10 tries). Ridley scored one third of his touchdowns from the six-to-14-yard range.
Michael Turner didn’t lead his team in snaps out of the backfield (Jacquizz Rodgers had that honor), but he was the lead goal line back. Turner scored 10 times, but the numbers say he left one or two on the table. Seven of Turner’s 10 scores came from within three yards of the endzone. He scored on four of 11 tries from the one-yard line.
Looking over some historical TD vs. oTD data, it appears that the difference between the two tends to correlate pretty well with talent level. The best players tend to score more than expected and vice versa. Our next two charts show the top players with the biggest gaps between their actual and expected touchdown numbers.
Overachievers
Running Back |
Att |
rADEZ |
TD |
oTD |
Diff |
C.J. Spiller |
203 |
58.0 |
6 |
2.2 |
-3.8 |
Marshawn Lynch |
315 |
53.6 |
11 |
7.3 |
-3.7 |
Alfred Morris |
335 |
51.3 |
13 |
9.3 |
-3.7 |
Mikel Leshoure |
215 |
53.6 |
9 |
5.7 |
-3.3 |
Trent Richardson |
267 |
53.4 |
11 |
8.3 |
-2.7 |
Mike Tolbert |
54 |
51.4 |
7 |
4.4 |
-2.6 |
Reggie Bush |
227 |
55.6 |
6 |
3.6 |
-2.4 |
Andre Brown |
73 |
43.3 |
8 |
5.7 |
-2.3 |
David Wilson |
71 |
44.1 |
4 |
1.8 |
-2.2 |
Ray Rice |
257 |
52.2 |
9 |
7.0 |
-2.0 |
There are some big-time players on this list. In fact, if we extended it another spot, Jamaal Charles would’ve made it. If we showed the top 16, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson would’ve shown up.
Spiller is a borderline top-five overall fantasy football pick this year. This study provides optimism that he’s able to score touchdowns regardless of his role inside the five. Spiller scored from lengths of five, 10, 14, 17, 44, and 56 yards last year. In fact, Spiller only handled one carry inside the five-yard line during all of 2012. In order to reach his fantasy ceiling, he’ll need to get more work near the goal line going forward.
Marshawn Lynch overachieved by 3.7 touchdowns last season. Amazingly, he only carried the ball once from within two yards of the endzone, scoring on the solo one-yard attempt. In total, five of his 11 scores came from inside the five. An impressive six came from 13-plus yards out, including four that were 20-plus-yard dashes to the endzone.
Mikel Leshoure is an interesting name to see in the top five. The big man from Detroit scored on each of his six attempts from within two yards of the endzone last year. His other three scores were from lengths of six, seven, and eight yards out.
Speaking of Leshoure, he’ll be joined in Detroit this season by Reggie Bush. Bush scored only one of his five touchdowns from within 13 yards of the endzone last season (a one-yarder). The others were from 13, 18, 21, 23, and 65 yards out. Bush enjoyed only three carries inside the five, scoring only that once.
Interestingly, both Andre Brown and David Wilson of the Giants pop up in the top 10. Brown racked up 11 carries inside the five, scoring on eight. He was five-for-five on attempts from the one-yard line. Wilson only had one carry inside the five-yard line. His four touchdowns came from distances of six, 14, 40, and 52 yards out.
Underachievers
Running Back |
Att |
rADEZ |
TD |
oTD |
Diff |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
277 |
50.4 |
5 |
9.3 |
4.3 |
LeSean McCoy |
200 |
53.2 |
2 |
5.3 |
3.3 |
Darren McFadden |
216 |
57.4 |
2 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
Shonn Greene |
273 |
52.9 |
8 |
10.5 |
2.5 |
Vick Ballard |
211 |
52.7 |
2 |
4.2 |
2.2 |
Alex Green |
135 |
54.8 |
0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
Peyton Hillis |
85 |
51.2 |
1 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
Brandon Bolden |
56 |
40.1 |
2 |
3.7 |
1.7 |
Jonathan Dwyer |
156 |
53.2 |
2 |
3.6 |
1.6 |
Daryl Richardson |
98 |
58.2 |
0 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
Our next list includes players that scored fewer touchdowns than they should’ve given their opportunity.
Having scored only five touchdowns despite an opportunity to score 9.3, the underwhelming BenJarvus Green-Ellis paces this list. He converted only three of nine tries from the one-yard line and four of 12 attempts from inside three yards. His only other score was from six yards out.
In a list of underachieving and/or underwhelming backs, it’s probably a bit shocking to see LeSean McCoy’s name. McCoy, as you may recall, easily led the running back position with 17 touchdowns in 2011. He had two in 2012. McCoy carried the ball within four yards of the endzone 18 times in 2011 (converting nine), but that mark fell to seven in 2012 (converting two). McCoy had six rushing scores of 10 yards or longer in 2011.
McFadden’s pair of touchdowns came from distances of two and 64 yards. He converted only one of six attempts inside five yards.
As shown earlier, Shonn Greene should’ve finished in the top five in rushing touchdowns last year. He did manage to find paydirt on eight occasions, but he left two or three on the field. Greene scored on five of his nine tries from the one-yard line. He converted seven of 16 inside the five. His only touchdown of longer than four yards was a 10-yard scamper in Week 6.
To further “prove” my theory that top running back talents tend to score more TD than oTD and vice versa, I wanted to quickly take a look at a five-year window of the data. Included is data from the 85 weeks covering the 2008 through 2012 regular seasons. For good measure, I included 15 players on each list this time.
Five-Year Overachievers
Running Back |
Att |
rADEZ |
TD |
oTD |
Diff |
DeAngelo Williams |
867 |
54.4 |
38 |
19.7 |
-18.3 |
Adrian L. Peterson |
1511 |
52.2 |
64 |
50.9 |
-13.1 |
Chris D. Johnson |
1462 |
55.7 |
44 |
31.3 |
-12.7 |
Jamaal Charles |
776 |
57.3 |
17 |
10.6 |
-6.4 |
Marshawn Lynch |
1167 |
52.3 |
39 |
33.3 |
-5.7 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
897 |
50.5 |
31 |
25.3 |
-5.7 |
Pierre Thomas |
573 |
50.1 |
23 |
17.5 |
-5.5 |
Ryan Mathews |
564 |
54.8 |
14 |
8.7 |
-5.3 |
Beanie Wells |
624 |
54.4 |
24 |
18.9 |
-5.1 |
LeSean McCoy |
822 |
50.6 |
29 |
24.0 |
-5.0 |
C.J. Spiller |
383 |
56.0 |
10 |
5.2 |
-4.8 |
Willis McGahee |
795 |
52.1 |
32 |
27.3 |
-4.7 |
Arian Foster |
1008 |
48.7 |
44 |
39.6 |
-4.4 |
Reggie Bush |
644 |
55.3 |
16 |
11.7 |
-4.3 |
Brian Westbrook |
363 |
52.1 |
14 |
10.0 |
-4.0 |
This is a pretty impressive list. The likes of Peterson, Johnson, Charles, Lynch, McCoy, Foster, and Westbrook are far from surprises. They are some of the top talents at the position over the last half decade. We also see a few names consistently referred to as underrated (and rightfully so). Williams, Bradshaw, and Thomas fit that bill. Mathews (hey, he was very good before 2012) and Wells are probably a bit surprising. Bush is a polarizing player, but he’s clearly made the most of his scoring opportunities.
Williams is worth a long look since (a) he’s easily No. 1 on this list despite being stuck in a timeshare for several years and (b) he’s not even top two on the Panthers’ goal line depth chart!
Williams has scored 38 rushing touchdowns over the last five years. The average distance of those scores is an impressive 22.4 yards. He’s converted six of seven carries from the one-yard line and seven of 10 from inside three yards. Williams totalled 20 carries inside the five during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. He had zero in 2010, two in 2011, and three in 2012. What’s really impressive is Williams’ ability to score from long distances. Of his 38 touchdowns, 12 were runs of 30-plus yards, including seven of distances higher than 53 yards. Only 10 came from within four yards of the endzone.
Charles is notable because he’s fourth on our list despite only scoring 17 times on the ground since 2008. What’s amazing about Charles is his attempts from the one-yard line during that span: one (and he didn’t convert). Charles has carried the ball only 10 times from inside the five, scoring on half. Of his 17 scores, nine are from distances of at least 37 yards. That includes four touchdown runs longer than 75 yards.
Likely the biggest surprise on our list is currently unemployed Beanie Wells. Wells has tried 12 carries from the one-yard line over the last five years, scoring on an impressive nine. He has a strong 15-of-27 conversion rate on carries inside the five. Of Wells’ 24 scores, six have come from distances of 10 or more yards. His longest trek to the endzone is 31 yards.
Five-Year Underachievers
Running Back |
Att |
rADEZ |
TD |
oTD |
Diff |
Matt Forte |
1256 |
54.0 |
26 |
35.6 |
9.6 |
Jamal Lewis |
422 |
54.3 |
4 |
13.2 |
9.2 |
Cedric Benson |
1179 |
52.1 |
22 |
29.9 |
7.9 |
Jason Snelling |
302 |
43.7 |
6 |
13.0 |
7.0 |
Larry Johnson |
369 |
51.1 |
5 |
11.5 |
6.5 |
Daniel Thomas |
256 |
49.1 |
4 |
9.5 |
5.5 |
Marion Barber III |
679 |
48.5 |
24 |
28.2 |
4.2 |
Justin Fargas |
346 |
58.4 |
4 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
Chester Taylor |
326 |
44.5 |
9 |
12.9 |
3.9 |
Knowshon Moreno |
594 |
52.7 |
16 |
19.8 |
3.8 |
Tashard Choice |
302 |
48.8 |
9 |
12.6 |
3.6 |
Jackie Battle |
271 |
53.8 |
6 |
9.6 |
3.6 |
Shonn Greene |
809 |
52.9 |
17 |
20.5 |
3.5 |
Isaac Redman |
272 |
49.3 |
5 |
8.2 |
3.2 |
Steve Slaton |
442 |
45.7 |
13 |
16.0 |
3.0 |
Next we have a list of players who failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities over the last five years. With one major exception (maybe two), this is clearly a very underwhelming list.
The obvious major exception here is Matt Forte. Although he’s a dynamic all-around player, Forte has had major trouble scoring the football. Consider that of 23 attempts from the opponent’s one-yard line, Forte has converted only six (26 percent). That’s plain awful. Of 48 tries inside the five, Forte has scored only 10 times. Of his 26 rushing scores, 12 are from distances of 10 yards or longer and three were dashes of 45-plus yards.
Daniel Thomas is the next most notable active back. Thomas has converted only four of 16 tries inside the five during his young career. The total yardage of his four career rushing touchdowns is eight (one, one, three, three).
Finally, we have Knowshon Moreno. Moreno has converted an acceptable 8-of-15 tries from the one-yard line since 2008. He’s only converted four of his 13 other inside-the-five carries, however. What’s most troubling about Moreno is his inability to make big plays. Of his 16 scores, only one was a run of longer than seven yards (18-yarder in 2009).
Conclusion
Like our initial study of pass-catchers, today’s study shows that oTD is superior to redzone carries when evaluating a backs scoring opportunity. Unlike our initial study of receivers*, however, I feel that the comparison of actual rushing touchdowns to oTD is a fine way to analyze the ability of running backs to create touchdowns.
*In order to try to accomplish the latter for pass-catchers, a future study will examine actual TD vs. oTD based on receptions instead of targets. This way we can see which players are able to make the most of their receptions after the catch.
Have thoughts on oTD or ADEZ? Hit Mike Clay up in the comments section or on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL