Above The Standard – Draft Position Index Ratings Part 3

Using the Draft Position Index Ratings, Tyler Loechner gives you a winning strategy deployable no matter where you are drafting from.

| 4 years ago

Above The Standard – Draft Position Index Ratings Part 3

Welcome to the third and final part of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Position Index Ratings series. Part one broke down the index by draft position, part two broke it down by football position, and this article will show you how to draft a team that always ends up with an index rating above 100.

In case you aren’t familiar with the index ratings, here’s an overview: I ran dozens of mock drafts and then used the PFF Fantasy projections to find out, on average, how your draft position affects your chances at drafting a good team. Through all of this a standard formed. The standard – an index rating of 100 – means “average.” A rating of 110 means 10 percent above average, etc. etc. The starters for the mocks were 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, and 1-Flex (RB/WR/TE) in a points-per-reception (PPR) league. Only skill position starters are included in the draft position index (which means bench players are not).

So, if you’ve been smart, you’ve used the first two parts of this series to help you either draft or prep for your draft. All of the data is there to help you figure out how the index ratings impact your own personal draft strategy.

But maybe you’ve still got a draft coming up and you don’t know what strategy to deploy. Do you go for Jimmy Graham early? What about Calvin Johnson? Do you take a running back even if it’s a guy that isn’t get as much love this year, like Ray Rice? There are a lot of different strategies out there, and I’ve tried them all. In fact, in the name of research for this article, I tried out all of the (viable) draft strategies from all 12 spots in a 12-team league. I then put my teams up against the index standard to see which strategy always came out on top.

The result:

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Tyler Loechner is a lead writer at PFF Fantasy. He has played fantasy football since 1999 and has been a part of the PFF Fantasy staff since 2010. Tyler was also previously a fantasy football featured columnist at Bleacher Report.

  • Pete

    Anything can happen. The guy who won my league last year took Brees in the 1st and Alfred Morris in the 12th. Everybody pounced on McFadden, CJ2K & DeMarco last year. 3 busts.

  • Sippin’ on

    I’m sorry… there is no way I’m taking Matt Forte over Aaron Rodgers…

  • Arik

    Great point about McFadden, etc. When I draft in the early rounds, I’m looking at drafting assets that have low risk and high trade value (Megatron, Graham, etc.). With the volatility at RB, I thinks it’s incredibly risky to invest two top picks in RB’s unless you’re getting a sweet bargain. Projetions are great, but there’s been a lot of research that says drafting a RB early is at-best a coin flip because of increased injury risk, faster regression, TD volatility, etc. Better to load up at RB1 and the other positions and play the FAAB fast & loose early on breakout RB candidates (Morris for example).