Welcome to the eighth edition of this column, where each week I examine a handful of DFS-relevant games expected to produce a large quantity of points. The idea here is that more points will lead to more opportunities for individual players to make an impact on fantasy rosters. This week, we will look at three games from the Big 12 and two from the the American Athletic Conference.
In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Also, I wanted to make sure that both slates were fairly represented, so we have three late games and two early games, instead of strictly looking at the five highest totals on the board.
Oklahoma @ Baylor (late)
Projected total of 77 points
Baylor: When the Bears take the field on Saturday, they’ll be facing the best defense they have seen all year. Oklahoma ranks in the top 20 in most national categories and has held all six of their conference opponents under 27 points.
The million-dollar question for Baylor is this: how will Jarrett Stidham perform in his second career start? The DFS market has already put a lot of trust in him, bestowing the No. 4 salary at FanDuel and the No. 7 at DraftKings. Although I am less trusting of Stidham’s ability to get a win for his team, I do like him as a DFS option and project him as a top-three scorer.
Stidham’s favorite target last week was Corey Coleman, who caught 11 passes, which was seven more than KD Cannon and Jay Lee. Coleman ranks sixth in the country in market share of team receiving yards and leads the nation in receiving touchdowns. That said, he’s in for a stern test against a defense that has allowed only one conference receiver to surpass 60 yards this season (Allen Lazard with 101 last game). On both sites he is at least $1900 more expensive than any other receiver, but does carry my top projection. As I think that price point captures much of the upside, I might be more inclined to use KD Cannon or Jay Lee, if I really wanted a share of the Baylor receiving corps.
On the ground, Shock Linwood has a top ten salary that is appropriately aligned with his projection. I think he could be a value this week though, as he saw an uptick in passing game usage last week, which might be related to the arrival of the new quarterback.
PFF now has weekly projections for college players, which you can explore here.
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Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.
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