JVM: Oakland Raiders
Applying Nathan Jahnke's Value Model to the Raiders' 2013 season, Rick Drummond sorts out the most over- and under-valued from the roster.
JVM: Oakland Raiders
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Janke Value Model” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2013. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it HERE, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2013
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Oakland Raiders:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Lamarr Houston, Defensive End
Topping the Raiders’ undervalued list for the second season in a row, Houston heads to free agency having outperformed his pay in back-to-back campaigns. Not the pass-rushing force that will break the bank (19th among 4-3 DEs in Pass Rushing Productivity in 2013), but has proven himself as a stout run defender on the edge (led all 4-3 DEs in Run Stop Percentage, 10.3%) and the experience he gained in switching sides to play on the right in 2013 can only help his case. If he’s brought back, a healthy raise is in order.
2013 Cap Hit: $1.1m
2013 Janke Value Model: $6.2m
Value Differential: +$5.1m
2. Pat Sims, Defensive Tackle
A strong second half of 2013 where Sims earned an overall +19.7 from Week 8 on, pushed him up this list by blowing his performance value past his cap number by $3.5 million. His one-year deal is set to expire and having ‘proven it’ he should expect a multi-year offer more in line with what he showed himself capable of.
2013 Cap Hit: $1.8m
2013 Janke Value Model: $5.3m
Value Differential: +$3.5m
3. Stefen Wisniewski, Center
Entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, Wisniewski moved from a +$1.5m value differential in 2012 (eighth-highest on the team) to this +$3.3m in 2013. Finishing ninth in overall grading among centers, he has climbed the ranks after spending much of his rookie season doing a decent job at left guard. The team has a lot of moves to make this offseason, but locking up Wisniewski will be a focus of the next wave.
2013 Cap Hit: $1.1m
2013 Janke Value Model: $4.5m
Value Differential: +$3.3m
4. Rod Streater, WR – Cap: $500k, JVM: $3.7m, Value Differential: +$3.2m
5. Rashad Jennings, HB– Cap: $600k, JVM: $3.2m, Value Differential: +$2.6m
6. Sio Moore, OLB – Cap: $600k, JVM: $3.1m, Value Differential: +$2.5m
7. Andre Holmes, WR – Cap: $400k, JVM: $2.5m, Value Differential: +$2.1m
8. Mychal Rivera, TE – Cap: $400k, JVM: $2.1m, Value Differential: +$1.6m
9. Matthew McGloin, QB – Cap: $400k, JVM: $1.8m, Value Differential: +$1.4m
10. Denarius Moore, WR – Cap: $600k, JVM: $2.0m, Value Differential: +$1.3m
1. Darren McFadden, Halfback*
That ‘was injured’ asterisk is a permanent fixture for McFadden and 2013 was the season that finally saw him lose out on playing time even when healthy as backup Rashad Jennings made the most of his opportunity to step in and assume the role. He’s failed to surpass 350 snaps four times in his six seasons and, supreme talent or not, being available is half the battle. As for the other half of it, his dwindling yards per carry average hasn’t inspired confidence either. His six-year ‘old CBA’ rookie deal is done and he’ll be suiting up for another team in 2014.
2013 Cap Hit: $9.7m
2013 Janke Value Model: $700k
Value Differential: -$9.0m
2. Sebastian Janikowski, Kicker
Now on his third contract extension after being drafted by Oakland in 2000, Janikowski is on the books through 2017 and still sits atop the league’s list of kickers as far as salary goes. With his performance in 2012 falling short of matching up to his hefty cap number in this study, he fell further from the mark in 2013 as his cap number grew and while he dropped from seventh to 25th in overall kicker grades. Though his cap number shrinks in the coming years, he’ll still be pressed to justify the pay on a team that is now watching every penny.
2013 Cap Hit: $5.0m
2013 Janke Value Model: $925k
Value Differential: -$4.0m
3. Matt Flynn, Quarterback
The experiment gone bad, Flynn was a controversial acquisition who was beaten out in camp and eventually made one painful start for Oakland before being released midseason. Needless to say, the return on this investment was not good and the best thing about it all was that it ended quickly. The Raider QB issue is one that continues on, but the Flynn move was a swing and miss that offered nothing of a solution when one was sorely needed.
2013 Cap Hit: $3.9m
2013 Janke Value Model: $465k
Value Differential: -$3.4m
4. Tyvon Branch, S* – Cap: $3.9m, JVM: $600k, Value Differential: -$3.3m
5. D.J. Hayden, CB* – Cap: $1.9m, JVM: $240k, Value Differential: $-1.6m
6. Jared Veldheer, OT* – Cap: $1.6m, JVM: $190k, Value Differential: -$1.4m
7. Kevin Burnett, OLB – Cap: $1.9m, JVM: $825k, Value Differential: -$1.0m
8. Marcel Reece, FB – Cap: $2.0m, JVM: $1.0m, Value Differential: -$950k
9. Nick Roach, MLB – Cap: $1.6m, JVM: $700k, Value Differential: -$940k
10. Kaluka Maiava, OLB* – Cap: $1.4m, JVM: $525k, Value Differential: -$880k
Summary – Team Value Differential: -$1.8m
All in all, the roster produced value roughly in line with what it was paid as the 24 undervalued players made up for just about all of what the 42 who came in as overvalued took away. Very few questionable contracts exist at this point and with the cap situation righted, each move from here on will be 100% held to account as the clean-up reasoning has seen its day.
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