Each week in this space, we’ll be taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important stats for fantasy owners heading into the following week. With 14 of 15 games from Week 7 in the books, here are the five stats you need to know:
1. Over the past two seasons, the highest-scoring fantasy (PPR) running backs have been:
- David Johnson (24.7 fantasy points per game)
- Le’Veon Bell (24.2)
- Kareem Hunt (22.7)
- RB1 vs. San Francisco (22.6)
Yes, the 49ers are allowing more fantasy points per game to a team’s lead running back than players like Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Melvin Gordon are scoring. Looking at all running backs (not just the RB1), the 49ers are surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the position for the second straight year (31.7 in 2016 and 33.2 in 2017).
On Sunday, Elliott totaled 219 yards and three touchdowns for 40.9 fantasy points against the 49ers. There have been only 40 instances of a running back scoring at least 30 fantasy points over the past two seasons. San Francisco has accounted for a whopping seven of these games, while no other defense allowed more than four.
The 49ers have a fairly soft draw of running backs coming up in the Eagles, Cardinals, Giants, and Seahawks. Feel free to try your luck on any of those backfield in DFS, but if not, it might be worth marking your calendar for Dec. 3 in Chicago.
2. Mitch Trubisky completed just four passes in Sunday’s victory over the Panthers, after completing just eight a week ago. Since Trubisky has taken over as starting quarterback, the Bears have run the ball 111 times while attempting only 50 passes. This 68.9 team run percentage would rank highest (over a full season) since the 1976 Steelers.
This number is undoubtedly due to regress, but as it stands, all players involved in Chicago’s passing game should be benched until further notice. Jordan Howard, on the other hand, is averaging 25.3 carries and 102.7 yards per game over the past three weeks. Despite the offense’s general inability to get in the end zone, the volume should be enough for Howard to hit value against a New Orleans defense ranking fifth-worst in yards per carry allowed (4.65).
3. This season, Joe Flacco is averaging 5.32 yards per attempt. If over a full season, this would rank worst since Kyle Orton in 2005. For perspective, the Chiefs are averaging 5.63 yards per carry. Flacco ranks last among all starting quarterbacks in this statistic, passer rating (70.0), and PFF Grade.
To be fair, Flacco was without Jeremy Maclin, Breshad Perriman, and Chris Matthews, while Mike Wallace and Ben Watson both came into the week questionable. Still, it’s not looking good for Baltimore’s franchise quarterback, who has $81 million guaranteed over the next five seasons. Over the past three seasons, among all quarterbacks with at least 400 attempts, Flacco ranks above only Blaine Gabbert and Brock Osweiler in passer rating. Gross.
It’s a potential “get right” spot for the Ravens this week, up against a Miami defense ranking fifth-worst in opposing passer rating (102.9), but it’s hard for me to imagine any scenarios I might recommend starting a Ravens player unless absolutely desperate.
4. Heading into the week, Amari Cooper had only 58 total yards over his previous four games. On Thursday, Cooper hit career highs in targets (19), yards (210), and fantasy points (33.0). In total it was the 28th-best fantasy day for a wide receiver this past decade, and was 2.4 points more than his prior six-week total.
Finally! Cooper’s slump is over.
Maybe.
Cooper also dropped two passes. This season, Cooper has averaged one drop every 5.8 targets. For perspective, over the past five seasons, Larry Fitzgerald have averaged one drop every 49.9 targets. In terms of expected fantasy points, Cooper has already lost 19.2 fantasy points thanks to drops. The drops are just a frustrating aspect of Cooper’s game, but you’re still going to start him with confidence as a high-upside WR2 moving forward.
5. Since 2016 (three starts, five games), Kenny Stills has scored 65.1 fantasy points from targets thrown by Matt Moore, while Jarvis Landry has 62.9, and DeVante Parker has 30.7.
Granted, Parker did miss Sunday's game, but still, these numbers are fairly surprising. Stills has an impressive 22.9 percent target market share with Moore, but only had a 15.1 percent target market share with Jay Cutler. Stills accounts for 34 percent of Moore's yards in air, 50 percent of Moore's touchdown passes, 44 percent of his red-zone attempts, and 60 percent of his end-zone attempts.
Cutler averaged 33 attempts per game prior to Week 7. Stills is averaging 21.7 fantasy points per every 33 pass attempts from Moore. Stills is far from a lock, but I think it’s safe to say he gets a boost with Moore at quarterback. With Cutler reportedly out for the next 2-3 weeks, Stills is worth a speculative add in redraft leagues. While he does have a tough matchup this week against the Ravens, he makes for a very intriguing DFS play at only $4,000 on DraftKings.
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